Kempton Betting: The Racing Post Chase

Tipping / Wayne Bailey / 19 February 2009 / 1 Comments

Wayne Bailey looks ahead to Saturday's big race and shortlists the horses that are likely to make the frame...

Big Fella Thanks

There's been a bit of a gamble on this lad earlier on in the week and his one time double figure price is now a lot shorter at around [4.6]. It has since transpired that his owners - Messrs Findlay and Smith, have had a bet on their horse which helps to explain the sudden drop in price. Findlay said that they "had a few quid on but mainly because it was apparent that the second and third favourite weren't going to run. That was the significance behind the punt, because we reckoned he was bound to start around 3/1."

Personally, I believe his place at the top of the market is justified - even with a price trim. He appeared to have plenty left in the tank when winning the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster and it's probably worth noting that eight of the past nine Racing Post Chase winners were all successful last time out.

Horses that are proven over three miles are also worth following in this race, and if you ask me, he's not doing too badly off 11st 1lb right now. I wouldn't be put off by a short price - indeed the last horse to win this race priced in double figures was Mudahim way back in 1997. I believe that [4.6] still offers good value.

Nacarat

He's currently trading at [14.0] which seems far too big when you look back at the skypoker.com handicap chase where he won with plenty in hand. In-running punters should note that he likes to keep up with the pace and runs prominently - so if he gets into a good position early on, he'll be very hard to beat. Tom George is said to be very excited about his work at home, and the former successful French hurdler is really starting to find his style over fences since coming to the UK. If there's any horse that can take on the market leader, this may be the one.

Possol

I quite like this horse, and Henry Daly's French import showed plenty of guts when fighting on gamely for third at Cheltenham last time out. Indeed, his price hit [1000.00] in the place market that day, having looked as though he'd be pulled up at one stage. I think we'll see improvement from the gelding, but I suspect that a place is the best he can hope for on Saturday.

Hold Em

This horse was a decent hurdler in his day and it looks like he could be getting away with murder in the weights at 10st 1lb. Indeed, his trainer Keith Goldsworthy has stated that "There are some nice horses in the race but they have to carry lead and I don't think the handicapper has got our horse yet."

However, he's prone to the odd mistake and I think he'll have to sort out his jumping before he can compete with the big boys here. A price of roughly [18.0] would seem about right to me.

Lacdoudal

It feels like this horse has been around forever! He's had eight career wins from 36 races, which is reasonable enough - but I believe his best days are firmly in the past now. His last win was three years ago and his form has been hit and miss ever since. Hobbs believes that he has a reasonable each-way chance but a win might be too much to ask for at this stage.

Silverburn

It's always foolish to discount a Nicholls runner, but Silverburn has never been able to return to his best since suffering breathing problems and there are too many question marks hanging over his head. I'm hoping the end is not nigh for the eight-year-old, but until he proves himself again by beating decent horses, he can't be backed with any confidence.

Ungaro

His price seems quite big at [17.5] when you consider the fact that trainer Keith Reveley has aimed the gelding at this race for some time. He tends to jump to the right which didn't help too much when coming second to Big Fella Thanks last time out at Doncaster so it will be interesting to see if he shows improvement when going right-handed at Kempton. He's a decent animal, but can be unpredictable so a place bet would be the safest option on Saturday.

Conclusion:

Big Fella Thanks looks like he has the class to take these on and despite his price coming in this week, he still offers value at [4.6]. However, Nacarat may have more improvement to come and [11.0] is just too high. Therefore, I'm dutching both horses which offers an overall price of roughly [3.45].

One horse that could cause an upset is Ungaro, so I'll keep the ten-year-old on my side in the place market.

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Have I left a good thing out? If you think there are other horses I should have noted, we'd love to hear you make a case for them - so feel free to post below.

Comments (1)

1. Stu | 19 February 2009

   The horse that jumps out for me - so long as the ground is good - is Oedipe of Nicky Henderson's. I was at Aintree when he bolted up off 134. Three Mirrors - a horse I rate and am sure will win a good handicap one day - won nto off a mark 6lbs higher. That, for me, means that Oedipe is on a fair-ish mark off 142. Good ground is critical - but it looks to be going that way. I'm willing to give him a chance to recapture his best form at 16/1+