Tipping / Paul Jacobs / 17 November 2009 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet View Market

From an incredible low of [1.4], Kauto's win price has drifted out to the heights of [2.4] for Saturday's Grade 1 at Haydock, so what does our man Brondesbury make of it all?

Why was it that immediately after the demise of Kauto Star in last year's Betfair Chase at Haydock, Paul Nicholls declared he would never run the horse at the track again?

Yet, he has since emphatically declared the Grade One event will be the horse's starting point this season as part of only three outings this season which will take in the defences of his King George and Gold Cup crowns.

Part of the explanation could be that Haydock have since modified the chase course so that the track isn't as sharp as last year and that the all the races on the card will no longer be run on the same stretch of turf.

Whatever the reason it is a massive shift in opinion from the champion trainer and the twice Gold Cup winner is set try and reclaim his Betfair crown lost so ignominiously last year.

Currently trading at [2.2] for the event, despite his defeat last year his two previous wins at the track suggest the terrain is not a problem, and on official ratings the French bred has at least a stone in hand and should really be an odds-on shot.

There are many factors that have him and nearest pursuer in the market, Notre Pere ([4.0]) so close in the betting; the Irish raider is four times that price for the Gold Cup!

First up, Notre Pere will have a fitness advantage. Secondly, if we get genuinely heavy ground it will suit the Irish raider more than the Gold Cup hero and thirdly the defeat of Master Minded at the weekend may well have had an effect on die hard Nicholls' fans and put a doubt in their minds as to how well forward and in-form his string are.

With unkind weather forecast between now and Saturday, a la Paddy Power weekend, the likelihood of testing ground will not be what Imperial Commander or Madison du Berlais would require to show their best form and the alternative could well lie with one of the most enigmatic, but talented performers on the NH block, Tidal Bay.

I was rather taken by the latter's run in the Old Roan behind Monet's Garden, where he jumped with greater fluency than normal and a real test on soft ground over three miles and crucially on a flat track could well be the making of him.

He is certainly too big a price at around [24.0] and I shall eagerly await the place market to kick in to have a substantial wager there as well.

Of course he has to show more than just marginal improvement to win, but to my mind could be capable of stepping up.

So the advice is a win bet on Kauto Star at around [2.3] to salvage your win stake bet on Tidal Bay at [24.0] with a large place bet on Howard Johnson's runner when the market opens; a price of around [5.0] should be the aim.

Tags: Betfair Chase, Haydock, Kauto Star, Tidal Bay