Tipping / Simon Baker / 12 May 2010 /

Simon Baker takes a look at the first British Group 1 of the season for older horses...

In terms of quality, this year's Lockinge bears comparison to last year's renewal, with the 2009 favourite Paco Boy again looking the pick on form. Paco Boy went off at a Betfair SP of 2.74 for last year's renewal and could manage only fourth, yet this year, in what would appear to be no worse a race, he is set to start shorter than that, currently trading at [1.83]. So why is he shorter?

Last season Paco Boy lined up with some still doubting his stamina, for all he had previously won the Sandown Mile, and though he ultimately didn't look to get home in the Lockinge, with the dead ground seemingly making for too much of a test for him, he subsequently proved himself a top-class miler, winning the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot before finishing second to Rip Van Winkle in the Sussex Stakes. Add to that his recent repeat success in the Sandown Mile, gained in most impressive fashion, and the fact the going at Newbury is currently good to firm, and it's easy to see why he's the price he is. However, the course is forecast to be hit by heavy showers on Thursday and Friday, and if that rain gets into the ground, Paco Boy won't look the rock-solid odds-on shot he does currently, especially if the ground becomes any more testing than good to soft.

So where are the alternatives? The likeliest winner outside Paco Boy is the lightly raced four-year-old Zacinto. He finished runner-up to Rip Van Winkle in the QEII at Ascot last year and actually got closer to Rip Van Winkle, the winner of that race, than Paco Boy had the time before in the Sussex Stakes, though there's a chance he is at least a bit flattered by the form, having come through from well off a strong pace. Sir Michael Stoute has proven repeatedly that he is one of the best there is at getting improvement out of older horses and it may well be that this long-since highly-regarded colt can make his breakthrough at the top level this year. He can be backed at [4.7], which we think slightly underestimates his chance, given that he has just 3 lb to find with Paco Boy on his best form and is far less exposed.

Ouqba [13], who won the Free Handicap and the Jersey Stakes last season, hasn't tried a mile since finishing down the field in the 2000 Guineas, but the galloping track at Newbury should suit and he's a candidate for the places, even though he looks a bit short of being truly top class. While Ouqba is stepping up in trip, Pipedreamer [12], returns to a mile for the first time since winning a maiden in 2007. He has long since shaped as though worth a go back over this trip, and his new trainer Kevin Ryan has wasted little time in pursuing that avenue. However, at six years old, he looks exposed as just shy of this level. Another who has recently changed trainers is Lord Shanakill [19.5], who makes his debut for Henry Cecil. Lord Shanakill proved himself a likeable type last season, running well when third in the St James's Palace at Royal Ascot before winning the Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly. That is traditionally not the strongest of Group 1s, however, and Lord Shanakill probably remains vulnerable in against the very best.

Prince of Dance [34], who has long been well thought of by Tom Dascombe, has something to prove for the time being having finished last in the Sandown Mile on his reappearance, while Stimulation [25], who is a very smart performer at his best, had just two runs last season and is unlikely to be taking this on his reappearance. Irish raider Kargali [150] looks out of his depth for all that he won a Group 3 at the Curragh last time, while The Cheka [20], who is arguably of more interest, completes the field. The Cheka's career has been interrupted by injury and, as a consequence, he has had just the four runs. However, he has run with great credit on each of those occasions, and went very well for one so inexperienced when third behind Paco Boy in the Sandown Mile on his return to action.

Recommendation: Back Zacinto @ [4.7]

Order your Lockinge Stakes issue of the Timeform Black Book from the Timeform website

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