Weekend Horseracing Preview: Valery Boroz has speed and courage to win at Ayr

General / Graham Cunningham / 19 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

Yes, we know that taking your eyes off the action at Valhalla is difficult, but Ayr and Newbury serve up some high-class Flat racing featuring two hugely valuable handicaps. Racing UK's Graham Cunningham selects his own wild cards from the best of the action.

Looked at one way the Ayr Gold Cup is a cherished ritual which stirs the soul of any blue collar punter with an eye to hitting the jackpot for a relatively small stake. Looked at another way it is just another nightmarishly difficult sprint handicap in which the draw and luck in running play havoc with the plans of most form students.

I have to admit that I tend to veer from one viewpoint to the other depending on how much time I have to study the puzzle, but here is a horse-by-horse guide to the main contenders for this year's renewal.

Advanced

As the Americans say, what's not to like? He's dropped 5lb in the handicap since last year's gutsy win and has given clear indications that he is on the way back to his best, most recently when untouched with the whip over five at Beverley. Drawn three and a big runner again.

Confuchias

Former Group 3 winner in the mud and has been the subject of a sustained gamble since showing much more like his old form by leading home the stand side group behind Tajneed and Valery Borzov at Ripon. However, he was beaten five lengths there and, on balance, the value has probably gone now.

Valery Boroz

Impressive strike rate and has looked better than ever on his last two starts, ploughing through the Haydock mud before just failing to peg back stablemate Tajneed at Ripon. Drawn among the low numbers in seven, but has several speed horses to aim at and looks a very strong medal contender again.

Tajneed

Has won two from four since joining Dandy Nicholls and son Adrian sticks with him after that gritty Ripon success. Only raised 4lb, so by no means handicapped out of it, though others look slightly better value at the odds this time around.

Hogmaneigh

Devastating finisher when on song and right back to best when swooping late to land last week's Portland at Doncaster. Soft ground suits and a 5lb penalty is no great hardship. But slightly worrying that he failed to fire when 9-2 favourite for this race two years ago and a trouble-free passage may prove problematic if the main body crowds on the stand rail.

Shifting Star

Only one three-year-old has won this in the last decade, but Shifting Star has thrived on racing and followed two Ascot wins with a solid fourth in a useful contest on Kempton's all weather surface. Given a fair bit to do there and similar tactics will be hard to execute in a packing field such as this.

Fonthill Road

Short-headed in 2005, he returned to win this the following year and went down fighting in fifth twelve months ago. It's an impressive record by any standards, but Fonthill Road is higher in the weights than for any of those runs and his sole run this season didn't yield a lot of promise. Look for him on the far rail - which is just where he won from in 2006 - but a leap of faith is needed to back him.

River Falcon

Beaten a whisker by Hogmaneigh at Donny last week and weighted to reverse the form under the excellent Kelly Harrison, but a record of one win from his last 35 tells the tale of a frustrating character and two previous cracks at this race have seen him finish tenth and sixth. Add in the potential for traffic trouble with his come-from-behind style and there are enough reasons to be sceptical.

Conclusion:

Trying to second guess the effects of the draw is a nightmare, but Valery Borzov has been high on my shortlist for this for a long while and he has the combination of speed, courage and consistency which are ideal for top handicaps. Advanced looks bound to go well in his bid to repeat last year's win, but I'm less convinced about Confuchias and River Falcon and will be tempted to place lay both as a result.

..............................

Newbury

3.10

The John Smith's Handicap is often viewed as a trial for the Cambridgeshire, but with over £60,000 to the winner this is plainly a significant prize in its own right and Luca Cumani knows just how to win it having scored with Spuradich in 2004 and Monte Alto last year.

Monte Alto is back for another crack and has had plausible excuses for several recent defeats, but he's 6lb higher this time around and Cumani looks to have stronger contenders in the shape of Presvis and Ask The Butler.

Presvis has thrived on racing and was unlucky at Newmarket last time, where he came home powerfully after George Baker allowed the veteran Unshakable to get first run. Ryan Moore seems most unlikely to make the same mistake as he gets aboard Presvis for the first time and, along with Ask The Butler, the wily Luca probably holds the key here.

In running followers will be well aware that Ask The Butler often takes a little time to engage top gear, but once he does the effect is striking and he has used that finishing burst to telling effect to win three from four this season. He was drawing away quickly close home in a hot contest at Sandown last time and a penalty seems most unlikely to stop him going very close again.