Weekend Horseracing Preview: Glory, glory mare United?

General / Jeremy Grayson / 02 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Fingers crossed for the rescheduled Tolworth Hurdle on Saturday but Jeremy Grayson's attention is elsewhere; win, lose or draw, he is smitten with Lucy Wadham's mare.

Having had £250,000 worth of plastic sheeting and Simon Claisse's boundless enterprise to thank for ensuring a scintillating programme of racing went ahead at Cheltenham on Thursday, the noises coming from the Sandown executive with regard to their Tolworth Hurdle meeting this Saturday are similarly more encouraging now than they were a few days ago.

Assuming the current improvement continues, and the course passes its 8am inspection on raceday, the race I shall be watching especially attentively is not the Graded feature contest, but rather the Listed Blue Square Mares' Hurdle which opens proceedings, and in particular the Lucy Wadham-trained United.

The German-bred 8yo was added to Betfair's markets for the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival after running out an authoritative 2.25l winner of a decent Haydock 2m4.5f class 2 handicap just before Christmas. The [13.0] available about her for the win looks a generous enough price at present - it could look a monster price by about 1.30pm on Saturday afternoon if she goes in again at Sandown.

That Haydock-Sandown itinerary might look familiar to those of you who followed her prior to her 20-month lay-off, as it mirrors that of her 2006-7 campaign exactly. One main difference between now and then, though, is that Saturday's race has since been upgraded from a handicap to a conditions race.

Currently on a career-high mark of 150 following the Haydock win, that change could hardly have worked out more perfectly for United, not least as she is 15lb clear on Official Ratings of next best Shatabdi, but opposes on level weights without any recent Graded win penalties to encumber her.

Pitched in by Nicky Henderson here in preference to Chomba Womba and My Petra, Shatabdi comes here off the back of a mares' chase win at Huntingdon last time out, and her course and distance handicap third (on the same good ground as is forecast here) in April was as good as anything she's ever achieved over timber. Her overall career record of seeing out 2m4f trips is a touch chequered, however.

Accordello, meanwhile, is 10lb worse off with United for a 24l defeat in the Haydock race, and is still to win on an undulating track. Blaeberry has placed in Listed mares' hurdles over 2m and 3m the last twice, and has her preferred going, but increasingly exhibits a worrying pacelessness late on in races that simply wasn't there last term. Sweetheart looked in need of shorter than the extended 2m2f when outgunned at Fontwell last time, rather than this extra yardage, and hat-trick seeking Circus Rose's sole previous try around a course as stiff as Sandown was uninspiring to say the least.

With the protracted going very unlikely to bother a winner on everything from good to heavy, and with her last four wins all having been gained at 2m4f-2m5f, on balance United's biggest threat in the race appears to be the risk of the "bounce" factor on this second start back from such an absence. If she does blow up to any extent, though, then better here than at the Festival.

The incentive to make it to the David Nicholson (a Festival race that didn't even exist in her last season of racing) in top nick already looks sizeable, with the trip looking ideal, the course not obviously a problem (she managed fourth in the 2007 World Hurdle despite the over-long trip), and all of her current market rivals having questions to answer.

Bear in mind that Chomba Womba's precise retirement date is seemingly a moveable feast and still as likely to precede the Festival as follow it. Whiteoak needed a few runs last term before really hitting her stride - we've not seen her out yet this, and time is running out. Give It Time is untried on faster than yielding since her very ordinary 2006 Flat campaign, and even then soft turf and Fibresand were preferred. Pomme Tiepy hasn't looked quite the same consistent mare this season as last, and it's possible the two runs in top class company at Auteuil last summer have left a bit of a mark.

Finally, of course, whilst some will argue long and hard that French-bred horses mostly tend to be on the downgrade by eight, that's never something I have associated with German-bred horses especially - Martin Pipe's German-bred stalwart Seebald attained his highest Official Rating of 163 at the very end of his eighth year back in 2003, and United's one year older fellow countryman Fiepes Shuffle didn't exactly look to be on the crest of a slump at Kempton last week, did he?!

The Tolworth has attracted just the six runners despite reopening, and the one that appeals at present - particularly in-running if there is no demonstrable pace on - is the Henrietta Knight-trained Somersby. Still able to win an ordinarily-run Huntingdon novices' hurdle - and win it well - when the yard was in far worse form than it is now, the Second Empire 5yo is Hen's only runner on the card, and this in a race at which she has historically aimed many of her brighter prospects. Yesterday's taking Cheltenham chase winner Calgary Bay, plus some animal or other called Best Mate, have numbered among her previous Tolworth participants.

On the face of it Somersby still looks to have quite a bit to find on form, but probable market leaders Dee Ee Williams and Mahonia were both undone in relatively paceless races last time out - connections of both will be hoping either Benfleet Boy or Cabinet Minister try to make all again to their own detriment. Last-time course and distance winner Clay Hollister, meanwhile, has been too much of a martyr to knee trouble (among other things; truly he is a likely claimant to the title of the Equine Darren Anderton) to convince that he'll be entirely happy on the likely going, having never yet run on faster than soft.