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Time to take up lion taming with Calgary Bay set to disappoint at Sandown

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Graham Cunningham previews this weekends' racing, gives us an insight into his new year resolutions and looks ahead to what 2008 holds in store...

The new Best Mate can be a friend to layers at Sandown

THE good news is that the weather is relenting enough to ensure most of the first weekend's racing of 2008 goes unhindered by snow and frost.

The bad news is that heavy overnight rain could make for gluepot conditions at Sandown, but the quest to offset heavy Festive expenses will continue with a handful of trades headed by a lay of Calgary Bay in the featured Tolworth Hurdle (14.40).

This Grade 1 affair has been won by some true stars down the years and Best Mate was beaten in it during his novice season. Hen Knight has gone as far as to compare Calgary Bay with Best Mate, but those comparisons look highly optimistic at this stage.

Granted, Calgary Bay is a fine looker with a Cheltenham success under his belt and, unlike several of his rivals, the prospect of deep ground shouldn't hinder him too much.

But is Calgary Bay a genuine Grade 1 horse at this early stage of his development? There can be little doubt he has plenty to prove on the form book - indeed, he came out only the fourth best horse at the weights when beating Snap Tie in that slowly-run novice event at Cheltenham - and until he proves otherwise it looks well worth ignoring the hype and pressing the lay button.

Master Minded looks a potential improver in the Kauto Star colours

Anyone pressing the back button for Master Minded in the 14.05 is exercising some educated guesswork, but it might just prove worth taking the risk for several reasons.

Firstly, Master Minded relished the mud when proving himself among the best young chasers in France last season and, although he departed early on his debut for Paul Nicholls at Exeter, his jumping doesn't look a major concern based on watching YouTube videos of his earlier performances.

Secondly, a mark of 145 could prove very fair if he is as good as some reports from Ditcheat suggest. And last but not least, the fact that his owner Clive Smith has been known to risk a few shillings on Betfair means that Master Minded's progress in the market will be well worth monitoring.

The other trade worth considering in the 14.05 is a small win and place lay of Calatagan.

Malcolm Jefferson's gelding is in great form after winning the Castleford Chase for the second year running over Christmas, but he's on a career high mark after picking off rivals who had gone very hard at Wetherby and this looks a tougher assignment altogether.

The plan is simple....now all I have to do is follow it

FOUR days into a new year and the punting resolutions are, for the moment, holding up nicely, thanks.

The first one is to take up lion taming rather than trade in running on delayed pictures supplied by ATR. Both are equally dangerous, but the former is less expensive.

Number two is to spend more time working on Betfair's place markets both pre race and in running. Good jumpers and smooth travellers shorten appreciably soon after the flag falls, thus providing excellent trading opportunities for those with the foresight to spot them.

Next on the list is a plan to avoid laying anything ridden by AP McCoy or Ryan Moore wherever possible. You might cop the money, but these two scare you so often that your life expectancy shortens appreciably over time.

Number four is to start building a few positions in the ante post markets for Cheltenham and Aintree.

The impressive Newbury winner Khyber Kim (currently 10.0 to back) and Captain Cee Bee (20 and bigger) both appeal as potential Supreme Novices' Hurdle candidates.

Harchibald's defeat by Straw Bear in the Christmas Hurdle has done little to diminish the view that those who back him at around 8.6 will be able to trade out at much shorter odds in running on the big day, while the 20-1 about Snowy Morning for the Grand National with various High Street firms could look solid each way value now that Willie Mullins has stated that Aintree is high on his agenda.

No summer wine as Compo chooses a soft target

THERE may be 51 weeks left in 2008, but a strong contender for the Storm In A Teacup of the year award has already emerged thanks to the way Attheraces treated Julie-Anne Cumine's ride aboard Regency Red at Wolverhampton on Wednesday.

For those who were out at the sales or sleeping off their new year hangovers, the incident ran as follows.

Inexperienced 7lb claimer with a career record of no wins from 18 rides partners quirky joint favourite in weak claimer and produces him to draw level entering the final furlong only to go down by a neck to a more strongly ridden rival.

Cue Attheraces pundit Dave "Compo" Compton launching into a sustained attack on the competence of the ride.

And cue the predictable studio debate in which Sean Boyce plays the role of reasoned middleman as aggrieved viewers follow Dave "Compo" Compton's lead.

To her credit, Cumine's colleague Kirsty Milczarek emerged from the weighing room with a highly cogent defence of her colleague in the face of a line of questioning from Dave "Compo" Compton which made Alan Partridge look like Jeremy Paxman.

All in all, it was a cringeworthy episode of the type which devalues the currency of what sound racing journalism is meant to represent.

Punters who respond to such misguided sexist tripe via emails to the studio and the Betfair Forum can probably be excused.

But the prats who generate this absurd hype in the first place ought to blush with embarrassment for the way they handle such matters.

Kirsty on the cusp as 08' gathers pace

ON the subject of Milczarek it will be interesting to see whether her current momentum can be sustained once winter turns to spring.

A growing band of followers insist she is tremendous value for her 5lb claim. She talks a good game when interviewed, too, and a run of ten winners in the last five weeks proves she can back it up once the whips are cracking.

But ability isn't always enough for young apprentices - especially female apprentices - when the claim reduces and another hot young talent arrives on the block.

Granted, Hayley Turner has made a breakthrough of sorts, but her relatively high media profile owes as much to her good looks and sunny demeanour as a 2007 total of 36 winners (placing her just inside the top 50) gained at a strike rate of a mere seven per cent.

Look back a little further and you will probably recall Lisa Jones, who made great strides during 2003 and 2004 only to be forced into a move to Macau once the rides began to dry up.

So which way will Kirsty Milczarek go in 2008? Is she the real deal? Is there a glass ceiling which prevents female riders reaching their true potential? Or is she just riding a wave of fashion which will hit the rocks once her claim is gone?

Feel free to leave your comments below and all the best for the year to come.

Cunningham's Tolworth day trades:

14.05 Back Mister Minded
14.05 Lay Calatagan win and place
14.40 Sandown: Lay Calgary Bay