Robin Keck's Stable Form: Confession

General / Robin Keck / 29 September 2009 / 4 Comments

"Simon Dow isn’t having many runners but they are nearly all running to form and he’s had a winner (Squad at Brighton) while I’m typing - he stays on the hot list."

Mr Keck provides an update on who's hot and who's not as well as admitting his failings as a punter and requesting your advice...

I'm flip-flopping Andrew Balding on to my cold list this week as, despite my previously expressed admiration, he seems to be sending out his lesser lights now which are going off too short in the market. Some of his runners seem to have had enough for the season (notably Chiberta King who cost me a few quid at Ascot).

John Gosden's runners also seem to be generally disappointing their backers with a number of recent disappointments and he can join Balding.

Ronnie Barr has been our lovely little secret over the last three weeks and from only seven runners he had another couple oblige. Tropical Duke and Just Sam went in at BSP [8.89] and [6.15] respectively last week and he just doesn't seem to be having any disappointing runners. I'm convinced the improving Sea Salt has another win in him this season as he didn't look comfortable at Musselburgh but still managed to hold on to second.

Similarly, Simon Dow isn't having many runners but they are nearly all running to form and he's had a winner (Squad at Brighton) while I'm typing - he stays on the hot list. I tried Eve Johnson Houghton last week who seemed to be running into form but I think I was wrong and he's cut.

It's time for a confession. I'm rubbish at in-running betting and I'm not getting any better. I only play pre-race as I don't have the technology to compete with the on-course punters but am struggling with the maths. If I fancy a horse in a race but suspect he'll be badly outpaced before staying on again, how much higher than Betfair SP should I set my required price? How big a stake is too big to swallow in a low grade flat race before I get poor value (i.e. the bet is only fully taken when the horse's chance is now much lower)?

There must be some excellent insight around on this subject as I'm struggling with the concept of definitely getting my bet matched if I lose but only potentially getting it matched if the horse wins (or loses if you've laid it - you get my point). I'm keen to get this right before the jumps season as horses running from stables out of form will often find little in the finish after travelling okay so any thoughts or specific advice would be very welcome.

One final week or two of purgatory before the jumps season gets into full flow and I make one late last lunge towards my £1,000 target.

Total Starting Bank = £250.00
Closing Bank after Week Seventeen = £725.82
Week Eighteen Result = -£61.30
Closing Bank = £664.52

Comments (4)

1. Zee Zoo | 29 September 2009

   Regarding in-running betting, the following would be my approach to taking advantage of expected price drifts. If a horse is a short enough price (3/1 or less) and I expect it to run lazily/get outpaced at some stage, I’ll lay it pre-race and then put in ‘keep’ backs at different increments. For example, if I lay a 2.0 shot to win £100, I’ll put in bets of £50 at 3.0, £20 at 4.0, £20 at 6.0 and £10 at 11.5 or bigger. That’s IF I expect the horse to win. I’ll break even if it doubles in price and profit from a trebling in price upwards.

   If the price is much higher than 7/2 you’ll be opening yourself to too big a liability if you wish to trade, especially if you’re just gonna cover your lay and keep the field on your side. If I lay a horse at 5.0 to win £100, and cover with a £50 bet at 9.0, in effect I’ll be backing a 1/8 shot because if it doesn’t hit 9.0 in running I’ll have done in £400 trying to win £50.

   Not sure how relevant stable form is to horses travelling well but finding little – I’d think that’s more down to the individual horses to be honest. But as a frequent backer of bridle horses I like to avoid backing-to-lay horses at too short a price (the exact price is dependent on the field size). Getting a horse to go from 3/1 to 6/4 in a 10 runner field is a lot more difficult than getting one from 16/1 to 8/1 in the same sized field.

   If you can dig out a strong traveler at a double figure price you can frequently earn yourself an even money winner by laying to win twice your stake at half the price backed at. I use this when backing bridle horses – will use it today on Kheskianto in the 3:50 at Southwell – it usually travels like the wrath of God on the bridle but invariably finds a lot less off it than looked likely. Will back him at 11.5-ish, and lay to win twice my stake at 6.2 or thereabouts.

   Sometimes I’ll lay just to recover my stake at half the price, then green up at lower again. Clopf on Sunday for example, was always in a prominent position from the outset and given his history was bound to attract the in running backers. Had backed him at 50’s pre-race, then laid to recover stake at 22 (average), and greened up at 12.5, 4.1, 4.5, 2.72, 3.3. That gave a 5/1 return whatever the outcome as against an even money return in the above example.

   There are several ways to skin the in-running cat. Profiting from it is a function of homework and experience.

   BTW, Eve Johnson Houghton is a ‘she’!

2. Robin Keck | 30 September 2009

   That is a very helpful response and all points are noted and I suspect I'll need to reread a few times to fully digest them. I'll let you know how I get on. One question - do you think the 'on-course' guys are not studying the detailed form? i.e. Don't they know that a horse will travel misleading well e.g. Clopf...or badly and stay on like Askar Tau?

   P.S. They say the game is about opinions but I'd argue until the cows come home that you're wrong about horses travelling well and finding nothing from out of form stables. The Howard-Johnson and Pipe stables both had a very cold period last season and I saw this effect time and time again.
   
   P.P.S. A thousand lashes for me on 'Eve'. I have a picture of 'Fulke' in my head but appreciate the christian name is pretty telling and this is his daughter. Having recently berated the RP for sexism I've blotted my copybook.

3. Zee Zoo | 30 September 2009

   Typical that my example (Kheskianto) should run like a diseased goat. Will try again today with Chaperno in the 4:15...

   I'll have to take your word on the out-of-form stables' horses finding little, it's not something I've analysed to be honest.

   Re: your in running opponents knowing horses' charactistics - I would argue that only a small percentage of them are familiar with them. In Group/Grade 1s, fair enough, most punters will know the horses' run styles, as there'll have been so much pre-race talk about them - witness how Delegator's price didn't dip much below his SP on Saturday, despite him coming there travelling well as usual. On the flipside, witness how keen layers were to get Geordieland when he had to battle at Sandown on his seasonal debut, only for him to find more than usual and throw a spanner in their works!

   Group/Grade 1s aside, it's amazing how even well established bridle horses continually trade shorter than they should. Whether it's itchy layers trying to get out or lazy punters, a horse's price will usually be an accurate reflection of how well it's travelling.

   I'd say most in-running punters with access to fast pictures don't bother studying any form whatsoever. They probably think their speed advantage over the field is enough. But, forewarned is forearmed, and nowhere is this better illustrated than in in-running punting.

4. Will H | 30 September 2009

   Interesting stuff. Some of the best form judges I know are brilliant in-running punters; others do awfully at it. I suppose it depends upon what your modus operandi is when it comes to playing in-running. Spotting strong-travelling types who will trade short is one way of approaching it, personally I prefer the opposite angle of leaving in bets at long odds for horses who I fancy might be outpaced at some stage but who stay the trip well and have shown that they can respond well to pressure, as I think this is a seam slightly less well-mined than laying weak finishers. I suspect that ZZ is right when he says that some fast-pic players don't think they need to know anything about form to mop up if their fingers are fast enough, but they will be the ones who are vulnerable when a dodgy horse puts his head in the air having gone clear and gets turned over at 1.01. As for laying certain Howard Johnson-trained horses in-running in small fields, I'd thank Robin if he didn't give all of my best systems away for nothing...