Al Khaleej could make up for near misses

General / Simon Rowlands / 03 October 2007 / Leave a Comment

The Rowley File hoping for better luck at Newmarket...

The Rowley File is in danger of getting a reputation for near misses that it deserves but does not relish.

The latest "if only" was provided by Cesare in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on Saturday, when the value win-and-place bet (nominated at around 20 for the win part) went the way of all such things in finishing a close fourth at an SP of 6/1.

Three withdrawals on the day meant just two places with a "conventional" bookmaker, but three places still on Betfair. Still not quite enough, I'm afraid.

The winner of the race, Ramonti, is the Godolphin standard-bearer and has a superb record this year. He's managed five races in Group One company, resulting in three wins and two seconds. There can be few gamer or more consistent horses around.

The problem is that, good though Ramonti is, he's not quite outstanding. Come the season's end he should really figure behind the likes of Manduro, Authorized, Soldier of Fortune (hopefully) and a few others in the pecking order decided by the international handicappers, and he may not even gain champion miler status. Darjina, who beat him comfortably in France but sunk without trace at Ascot, has strong claims for that title as well.

People will wonder - they always do - how the slide-rule merchants can rate a horse like Ramonti "only" 125, or whatever.

It is important to understand that "master" ratings are intended as a reflection of what the horse is capable of running to at its best, and they make no concession to how likely the horse is to run to that best.

If Ramonti were rated, say, 130 then Excellent Art, Duke of Marmalade and dear old Cesare, amongst others, would get ratings they did not really deserve. You can't get away from the fact that Ramonti beat them only narrowly.

It's time that the end-of-season assessments made by official and commercial handicappers made more of the "performance" ratings that give rise to those master ratings, in my opinion.

Ramonti may have his superiors in terms of raw ability, but in terms of banging out 120+ ratings time after time he is in a very select group indeed. If nothing else, such top-class consistency should be recognised when it comes to handing out gongs at the end of the year. How about an end-of-year category for the most consistently top-class performers, judged on ratings?

The coming weekend is arguably the most fascinating of the entire year for the racing fan, with big races taking place on the Flat in Britain, France and Ireland and some tasty fare over jumps on both sides of the Irish Sea as well.

The idea that three-year-olds are disadvantaged in the Cambridgeshire Handicap (Newmarket, 3:55 Saturday) was made to look pretty silly 12 months ago when one from that generation, Formal Decree, romped home ahead.

The truth is that there was never anything in the contention if you looked at the data properly: only one three-year-old had won in the previous nine years but generally they had actually overachieved.

This year the Betfair ante-post market is dominated by them, with the first six in the betting being sophomores.

I like the look of one of the younger generation who is at rather bigger odds, and that is Al Khaleej, last seen when third to The Illies at Ascot in July. The latter has won both his races since while Al Khaleej has rested on his laurels, and the upshot is that the Ed Dunlop-trained colt is 15 lb better off for less than three lengths.

Al Khaleej has the look of one laid out for the race, and, though he needs a few to come out to get into it, he is already jocked up and there seems little danger of his being pulled out and punters losing their money. 23 on Betfair makes plenty of appeal.

All eyes will be on Longchamp on Sunday, when a terrific race looks in store for the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe (Longchamp, 3:40). As mentioned previously, I am on Soldier of Fortune at average odds of 10.7, and I see no reason to desert him now that the rains have arrived, especially as it may lessen confidence in his stable-companion, the highly able Dylan Thomas.

A repeat of Soldier of Fortune's runaway Irish Derby win on soft in the summer will do very nicely indeed.