Graham Cunningham's Weekend Racing Briefing: Can Big Fella fend off freewheelers and stalkers?

General / Graham Cunningham / 20 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

After a winter of incessant frost and storms the weather has finally turned in favour of the speed horses. Racing UK and Betmaverick.com analyst Graham Cunningham feels conditions could be crucial in deciding the outcome of a series of big races on Racing Post Chase day at Kempton.

"The single most important factor in determining the outcome of a horse race is the ground." So said legendary Timeform founder Phil Bull and those wise words could ring very true this Saturday...

2.05 Dovecote Novices' Hurdle

Ainama is bound to be a warm order given that he bolted up over course and distance on his debut and is currently among the favourites for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. What did he beat here? Possibly not a great deal, but the style was commanding and he's open to bags of improvement.

Nominating the best value among the remainder depends to a fair extent on what you make of the ongoing battles between Dee Ee Williams and Alfie Flits.

Alfie came out firmly on top at Haydock on their most recent meeting, but I'm convinced Dee Ee Williams wasn't at his peak on sticky ground there. He's much better than that subdued effort suggests and a repeat of his best earlier efforts on good ground would give him fine win and place prospects.

2.35 Pendil Novices' Chase

This looks a straight choice between the recent fine form of Herecomesthetruth and the pre-Christmas achievements of Ouzbeck.

Herecomesthetruth looks bound to make the running - and his bold jumping is a treat to watch - but it would be a big mistake to underestimate Ouzbeck.

Alan King's gelding thrived when sent over fences last autumn, running out the emphatic winner of a Cheltenham handicap off a mark of 142 before departing at the last after a bold run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

Much depends on the way the market shapes up, but Ouzbeck has a higher official rating than Herecomesthetruth and could prove the value given that this drying ground looks all in his favour.

3.10 Racing Post Chase

Why am I cool on the gambled-on Big Fella Thanks here?

Perhaps it's because his name reminds me of a certain C4 Racing regular, or maybe it's because he has been hiked 13lb for a Doncaster win on much deeper ground. Either way, I'm very happy to take him on in a 20-runner handicap featuring an absorbing blend of freewheeling pace horses and dangerous stalkers.

Gallant course winner Fleet Street and runaway Doncaster scorer Nacarat are among the pace angles, while Endless Power and Ollie Magern can also be expected to press hard on the sharp end from an early stage.

However, I suspect the late chargers could have the final say in this massive field and the duo to catch the eye most at double figure prices are Fier Normand and Laskari.

Fier Normand has fewer miles on the clock than many of this field and caught the eye travelling powerfully when chasing home Stan at Cheltenham, while the smooth-travelling Laskari got stuck in the mud behind Big Fella Thanks at Donny but comes firmly into the equation based on the form he showed here earlier in the season.

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Get over it lads. Willie doesn't know, so what chance have we got?

Given the choice, would you rather try and solve a puzzle involving horses you know a great deal about or one featuring a massive field of unknown quantities who have never been asked to dig deep in a championship race in their entire lives?

I suspect the vast majority of people would seize the former option. So why is it that assorted media pundits seem fixated on trying to find out which is the pick of the Willie Mullins team for the Festival Bumper?

Mullins isn't a man given to hyping horses and, given that he has dominated the Bumper sphere for many a year in Ireland at the Festival, his comments on the latest crop of exciting youngsters at his Co Carlow base make for fascinating reading.

"Some of them are as good as any of the horses that won at Cheltenham over the years," he says. "That might look a stupid statement after Cheltenham but there is some wonderful talent there."

But when asked to nominate the pick of a choice bunch Mullins simply says: "I really don't know."

And why should he? Rumour about impressive gallops will continue to run riot, but nothing can prepare relatively untried young horses for what awaits them at Cheltenham next month.

If Mullins doesn't know, then how can we know? We can't...and anyone who pretends they can is cruising for a punting bruising.

Lastly, a question for those who stage Cheltenham preview nights in February

Would I be correct in assuming you also put your Christmas trees up in November and buy your Easter eggs in the January Sales?