General / Graham Cunningham / 26 February 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet View Market

Rain is doing its best to put a dampener on the jumps season. Eider Chase day at Newcastle has already been washed away, but Kempton looks set to go ahead despite the recent deluge and Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham has been casting his eye over a seven-race card highlighted by the Racing Post Chase.

Kilcrea Castle to make the headlines in the RPC

How do you condense an eight-race Saturday card featuring several established Cheltenham trials into a manageable bundle? Well, it helps to have a straightforward contest to kick off with and something surely needs to go badly wrong if Punjabi is to be beaten in the 13:00.

Nicky Henderson's gelding hasn't reproduced his Champion Hurdle form so far this season, but he is gradually coming back to something like his best and I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for a Zaynar-style flop this time around. In short, he fully deserves to be long odds on and should win accordingly.

I don't have any strong views on the 13:30 or a well-contested 14:00, but the next three races on the card all offer potential value angles.

The Nightingale won't be a great price in the 14:30, but his chance is there for all to see following a highly encouraging start to his chasing career at Fontwell.
That looked a useful contest by Fontwell standards, but The Nightingale jumped accurately and powered well clear in the straight. Red Admiral looked smart before Christmas and could be refreshed after a break. But The Nightingale incurs no penalty
for that Sussex success and it will be surprising if he doesn't go very close indeed.

The issue of whether AP McCoy is as good as he used to be seems a fairly hot one at present and may well get another airing with Tom "Pricewise" Segal on Saturday's Morning Line if my moles have done their sums right. Regular readers will know my faith in the Ulsterman is undiminished despite that Denman departure, but stamina rather than jumping looks the main issue as Nacarat bids for back-to-back successes in the Racing Post Chase at 15:05.

Tom George's freewheeling grey was a joy to watch in this race last year and isn't handicapped out of things from an 11lb higher mark, but it's worth remembering that he stopped the clock in 6m 04.50 seconds on good ground last year and this year's winner will probably clock something in the region of 40 seconds slower.

In short, I suspect Nacarat will put the whole field under pressure again early on the final circuit with the result that he might well trade fairly short in running. However, I also suspect that one or two thorough stayers will come to call in the home straight and Kilcrea Castle makes plenty of appeal to confirm the high promise of his British debut at Ascot last month.

Kilcrea Castle showed very useful form on soft ground in Ireland and could be open to further improvement for his new handler Emma Lavelle based on that Ascot effort. He jumped beautifully on his way to a fine third behind The Sawyer that day and this return to three miles looks just the job in a race which could see him stake a live Grand National claim.

The Triumph Hurdle is the big spring target for Mille Chief and Alan King's gelding looks bound to be a short price in the Adonis Hurdle at 15:40 based on his impressive wins at Kempton and Huntingdon.

However, even Mille Chief's biggest fan would have to concede that he is still more about potential than proven form. He jumps neatly and may well have too much finishing pace for this bunch, but northern raider Ultimate is a hungry front runner with a good attitude and an official mark of 134.

His trainer Brian Ellison has been in cracking form of late and, if nothing else, Ultimate has the makings of a solid back to lay vehicle on a track which promises to suit his go forward style very well indeed.

Tags: Graham Cunningham, Horseracing betting, the Racing Post Chase, Tony McCoy, Ultimate