Beware the clichés when placing your bets

General / Ian Dean / 20 February 2008 / Leave a Comment

Sage words from Ian Dean to consider before pouring over the odds on this weekend's meetings at Kempton and Newcastle

It can be news to no one that racing is a game of clichés. Nevertheless, it still disappoints when the BBC 5Live chief racing correspondent dedicates half of his precious airspace last Saturday lunchtime to passing on a tip on the grounds that 'the trainer was the first I saw when arriving at the track this morning.'

Ah, yes, that tried and trusted system - I believe the big Chinese betting syndicates have latched on to that one and are recruiting spotters as you read this.

Some clichés are easily ignored. However, others with apparently more substance take root amongst professionals and backers alike, and one man's cliché becomes another man's betting maxim.

For instance, it is oft repeated through the winter months that it is very hard to carry a big weight with any degree of success in staying handicap chases. That 'every pound over 11 stone counts double'. Few seem to doubt this. And while I was no Isaac Newton at school, I am told that the science behind such a theory is sound.

Yet, later on Saturday, Miko De Beauchene was far from the first to cock a snook at this wisdom when carrying 11-12 to victory in Haydock's Red Square Vodka Gold Cup.

Whenever I hear this argument, two words always spring to mind; Bonanza Boy.

Devotees of The Simpsons may recall the sign at the greyhound track that invites the crowd to 'Think of them as little horses'. The crowd may well be picturing Bonanza Boy.

Martin Pipe's erstwhile stalwart was a slip of a thing, just the sort we are told is 'not built to carry big weights' and 'too small to jump out of deep going', neither of which stopped him humping welter burdens through the mud to victory in both the Welsh and Midlands Nationals in the late 80s and early 90s.

The exception that proves the rule, you might say, kindly keeping with the theme of this column. And certainly horses like Bonanza Boy don't come along very often. Exhibit B, though, comes along annually, weather permitting, in the form of this weekend's Tote Eider Chase at Newcastle.

The Eider encapsulates much of what Londoners feel about the north- it's wet, dour and a bloody long way. Given the 4m 1f distance, the stiff track and the usually soft underfoot conditions, it has strong claims to being the most searching test of stamina in the calendar. One for the bantamweights, then?

Not exactly. In fact, in recent years, the equine hod carriers have prospered rather than buckled when faced with this examination. The record of the topweight in the last four renewals (abandoned in '03 and '05) reads third, won, third, won, that coming in fields of 15+ and on heavy going the last twice.

It would seem fair to say then that weight doesn't make a horse inherently vulnerable when stamina is at a premium. Even so, the record books clearly point to instances where topweights have struggled.

For a time, Newbury's Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup became something of a graveyard for those with 11 stone plus. In recent years, however, the established campaigners have decided to swerve the gig rather than waste their energy giving lumps of weight to a future King George winner.

This has left the likes of Trabolgan and Denman to shoulder topweight, and both have laughed it off simply because they were easily the most progressive runner in the field.

So contrary to common belief, it's not the big weights that are the problem, rather that those carrying the big weights are often, and not unnaturally, the most exposed. When they are not, the impost is no barrier to glory.

Cheltenham glory awaits just around the corner for some, and this Saturday's fixture at Kempton often has significant bearing on the big races ahead. An appearance by Noland in the Pendil Novices' Chase (2.40) would shed much light, while the lightly-raced Kia Kaha catches the eye amongst the entries in the handicap hurdle (4.50).

The day's big betting race is the Racing Post Chase, in which Kelami is taken to go well at big odds (although sadly not the [100.0] that was matched on Betfair ante-post market on Monday!). Francois Doumen's course winner is back on a competitive mark and was moving well when tipping up at Sandown recently.

And in the Eider, Arnold Layne can atone for the damage he did to Tony McCoy at Warwick last month, with 11-1 looking an attractive weight, whichever way you slice it!