Ascot Betting: The Fillies Mile, Challenge Cup and Diadem Stakes

General / Wayne Bailey / 24 September 2009 / 1 Comments

Frankie Dettori will take the reins on Fillies' Mile favourite, Long Lashes.

“A word of caution for the future: Fillies’ Mile winners often find themselves topping the betting for the following year’s 1,000 Guineas - but they have a poor record in that race and are worth opposing.”

Following on from his QEII preview, Wayne Bailey takes a look at the betting and odds for the other big Ascot races this weekend...

MEON VALLEY STUD FILLIES´ MILE (GROUP 1) (CLASS 1) (2yo)

The boys in blue have made a good comeback in the second part of the season, and Long Lashes rightly heads the market for Saturday's Fillies' Mile renewal. Her price is short enough but since the turn of the century, each winner of this race came from the top three in the betting so I'm not too concerned with the big outsiders. She was last seen at the Curragh in the Moyglare Stud Stakes but she hated the heavy ground and never got into the race. Previously, she looked promising at Newmarket and I'd expect to see her in the winners' enclosure before the season is out. Aidan O' Brien's Cabaret may give her the most work to do and is a tad overpriced. I saw her race at my local track (Leopardstown) a couple of months ago, and she done the job with relative ease and was impressive in the flesh. She looks like one of the better Irish juvenile fillies this year and may be one for the notebook.

A word of caution for the future: Fillies' Mile winners often find themselves topping the betting for the following year's 1,000 Guineas - but they have a poor record in that race and are worth opposing. Last year's winner Rainbow View was no different, and finished a disappointing fifth in the Classic, despite going off at [1.75].

TOTESPORT.COM CHALLENGE CUP (HERITAGE HANDICAP)(CLASS 2)(3yo+)

To be honest, this is a bit of a lottery and a good case could be made for half a dozen horses. As I write, Jeremy Noseda's Leahurst heads the betting but that may well have changed by Saturday afternoon and his participation is far from certain. The gelding ran far better than his rating suggested in a class three handicap at Wolverhampton earlier this month, and it's well know that the yard have high hopes for their three-year-old. He's expected to go to Dubai later on and he looks above average. He comes across as an improver, so it's hard to say if the handicapper has him in his grip just yet. Marching time has also attracted some early support and has claims. There was nothing wrong with his Goodwood race last-time-out and he brushed aside Signor Peltro with relative ease when it came down to business. He's treated fairly in the weights and I'm sure Stoute will be disappointed if the colt doesn't run a big race. But from a betting point of view, I'm not keen to get involved and I'll keep my money safely tucked away in my Betfair account for this one.

JOHN GUEST DIADEM STAKES (GROUP 2)(CLASS 1)(3yo+)

William Haggas' High Standing is at the top of the market and odds of [4.5] or thereabouts would be acceptable. He has a great turn of foot and may well get to use it if the weather holds up over the weekend. He managed third in the Sprint Cup at Haydock but was far from disgraced in defeat and should have more to come. The winner of that race (Regal Parade) should present a strong challenge and if running to form, he may be in contention - however, I reckon High Standing is on the up and has a great chance of reversing the form on Sunday. Indeed, Regal Parade's participation may be in doubt so prices could be trimmed all round come the weekend. Of the outsiders, Asset makes appeal at a double figure price with Frankie on board. His form figures are nothing to write home about but if he can stay out of trouble, he may just take some place money. He's an awkward horse however, so proceed with caution if placing a bet.

Best of luck with your Ascot betting!

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Comments (1)

1. Stu | 24 September 2009

   Long Lashes looks the solid form pick (Gp3 winner; beat Sent from Heaven who subsequently franked the form by winning a gp3 herself). It’s a question of price for me. Is the 2.5l beating LL gave SFH worth her being over 4x the price?