General / Wayne Bailey / 30 June 2009 / Leave a comment

Wayne Bailey takes a look at the main contenders for Saturday's big race where Sea The Stars trades as even money favourite...

It was disappointing for Irish racing fans to have Sea The Stars withdrawn from the Irish Derby on Sunday, but John Oxx is not a big risk-taker and always puts the animal first. But the good news is that he's likely to run this Saturday in the Coral Eclipse, and with no Fame And Glory or Masterofthehorse to contend with, I feel much more confident in backing him at even money.

Personally, I never doubted his stamina for the English or Irish Derby but a few people had some worries and were reluctant to back on that basis. In the end the weather intervened in Ireland, but he didn't appear to be going all-out at Epsom and I think he would have handled a faster pace at the Curragh had he made the line-up. He's yet to race over the Eclipse distance, but the son of Cape Cross is proven over a mile in both Guineas races, and of course the 12f in the Derby - so Saturday's in-between distance shouldn't pose a problem. As usual, the weather will have to be watched but the going is expected to be good-to-firm which should prove ideal.

Fame And Glory went on to win the Curragh Derby on Sunday but it was disappointing to see an Irish only field take part - although when you consider the Irish domination at Epsom, it was hardly surprising. He won it in style and it would be fascinating to see him take on Sea The Stars in the Arc.

But getting back to the Eclipse; I believe [2.0] is a good price for the favourite. To put it another way, ask yourself whether Sea The Stars has at least a 50% chance of ending up in the winners' enclosure on Saturday. If the answer is yes, then [2.0] is the right price. Based on personal ratings, proven form and a general gut feeling, I'd price him up at [1.8] so for me there's no other option than to take the current odds available on the back side. Whether or not his turn of foot will be as effective at a course like Sandown remains to be seen, but he still should have a few pounds in hand and enough to take the race regardless.

Conduit trades at [5.4] and is a worthy second-favourite when you consider his Gordon Stakes, St Leger and Breeders' Cup Turf wins last season. He has a 50% strike-rate and his second place last-time-out in the Group Three Blue Square Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown certainly wasn't a blot on his copybook as he was giving weight all around and still ran a fantastic race. I'm not 100% sure that he likes the shorter races and 1m4f would probably suit a little better - however he's expected to put in a bold challenge and the Michael Stoute trained four-year-old is respected. Depending on prices, he may be the one to take in the place market.

Regular readers will know that I've opposed Rip Van Winkle on a number of occasions now and at [6.2] I'm happy to click pink once again. He won his first two starts at the Curragh and Leopardstown last year, but he can't live on that forever and has never done the business on the big stage in the UK. He needs to get a decent win under the belt pretty soon or else he'll be remembered as another Ballydoyle talking horse. It's well known that Murtagh thinks a lot of the horse at home, but from a punting perspective, we can only judge what we've seen with our own eyes and on that basis, I'm happy to oppose.

Cima De Triomphe won the aforementioned Brigadier Gerard Stakes and is reasonably priced at [15.0]. The 2008 Italian Derby winner would probably like further however, and only nabbed that race very late on. He might be out of his depth on this occasion but it'll be interesting to see how well or otherwise he runs.

Advice: Back Sea The Stars at [2.0].

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