Ante Post Betting: The 2009 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

General / Wayne Bailey / 17 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Sea The Stars is now recognised as one of the greatest horses in decades.

“Fame And Glory won the Irish Derby and was second at Epsom but he’s had to live in the shadows of the John Oxx trained superstar and he has a lot to make up on numbers if he wants to reverse the form in Paris. That said, he’s a very live place contender and any price around [2.5] would be fair in that market.”

We've less than a month to go Europe's richest horse race and Sea The Stars is the rock-solid favourite at [2.7]...

Looking back at an Arc article I wrote in July, it's interesting to see how much can change in two months. At that stage, Fame And Glory was the market leader at [4.5] on Betfair - while Sea The Stars had just been withdrawn from a number of bookmaker markets after John Oxx expressed doubt about his participation.

At the time, I suggested that [4.5] was too low about Fame And Glory, while Conduit was of interest at [18.0]. Conduit now trades at [13.5] so I've layed out for a free bet. The current price of [7.0] or thereabouts for Fame And Glory looks about right to me.

Of course, Sea The Stars has since gone on to win the Juddmonte International and the Irish Champion Stakes and is recognised as an all-time great. It's my own belief that if he runs in the Arc, he should win - but I'm not keen on the price right now. If you took the prices above [7.0] some time back (as advised on these pages!) you should be sitting pretty; and now would be a good time to lay off the stake and enjoy a free bet.

I've you haven't had a bet; I'd wait until the day instead and accept a shorter price about Sea The Stars should he run. There's no value in [2.7] at this stage as the horse could still be withdrawn from the race. John Oxx last won the Arc with Sinndar back in 2000, and I'm sure he's keen to cement Sea The Stars' reputation as the best horse in decades, but he's also pragmatic and he won't risk running the three-year-old if conditions are not ideal.

Oxx has insisted that the horse likes quick ground and who are we to question that assertion - but the son of Arc winner Urban Sea has now won on soft and good-to-soft (twice), with the Leopardstown race most impressive. Indeed, his Timeform rating suggests he may even show further improvement which is very exciting indeed, and he could have the class to beat his rivals in Paris now matter how the ground turns out. But he's still a tricky betting proposition right now and it's worth holding off, just in case.

Fame And Glory is unlucky to be around at the same time as Sea The Stars and I'm sure we would have been singing his praises had the latter not been about this season. He's had five wins from seven races and was second to Sea The Stars in the two that he lost. He won the Irish Derby and was second at Epsom which is no mean feat - but he's had to live in the shadows of the John Oxx trained superstar and has a bit to make up on numbers if he wants to reverse the form in Paris. That said, he's a very live place contender and any price around [2.5] would be fair in that market.

The aforementioned Conduit was last seen when winning the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot and remains a live outsider. He's always been a horse I've rated highly and I hope he gives a good account of himself in October. Stoute has never won this race before and I'd guess that there's a very good chance he'll let the Breeders' Cup Turf winner take his chances.

But my overall view is that Sea The Stars should not be opposed if he runs. To me, ante-post betting should be about getting big prices, so I'm not interested in taking the [2.7] currently available at the time of writing. I've backed him at a higher price and layed off for a free bet, but I may go back to the well on the day, once his participation has been confirmed.

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