Ante-post Betting: Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

General / Wayne Bailey / 22 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Following Ascot, Rip Van Winkle is likely to head across the water to the Breeders’ Cup

“It took Rip Van Winkle quite some time to get his first Group One win under the belt - but there’s no denying that he’s a top class animal and it will be a brave man that takes him on this Saturday”

Wayne Bailey looks ahead to Saturday's big race at Ascot, where Aidan O'Brien's Rip Van Winkle heads the early market on Betfair...

As I write this on Tuesday morning, Aidan O'Brien's Rip Van Winkle heads the early QEII markets and regular readers will know that I was keen to take him on this season each time he faced Sea The Stars. Thankfully, that strategy proved profitable; but following his hard fought second place in the Coral Eclipse, I knew it was time to stop clicking pink about the three-year-old.

He's trading at [2.1] right now which could be seen as short when you consider Ballydoyle's poor record in the QEII. Only George Washington has been successful for the stable in this race (2006), despite the team sending 17 horses to post over the years. I will admit that a number of those entrants were simply pacemakers, but they have seen some of their big guns turned over in recent years. Despite this, the race has been quite punter friendly, with only two winners in the past ten years priced in double figures.

It took Rip Van Winkle quite some time to get his first Group One under the belt - but there's no denying that he's a top class animal and it will be a brave man who takes him on this Saturday. That win in the Sussex Stakes was one of the best we've seen in the race in years; and confirms that the 2009 three-year-old horses are exceptionally good. He can perform on most types of ground and with the QEII winner automatically qualifying for the Breeders' Cup Mile - surely North America beckons for the son of Galileo? He currently trades at [5.0] for that race, behind the [1.8] favourite Goldikova.

Delegator is second in the betting for Saturday's race around [3.3], and I must admit that I've found it hard to figure this horse out. I've been a fan for quite some time, and I took a chance and backed him in the Irish 2,000 Guineas - but he hated the ground and was never at the races. He has a great turn-of-foot when he gets the chance to use it and I'm sure connections are hoping for some nice ground at the weekend. On Monday evening, clerk of the course Chris Stickels told the press:

"It has been a lovely day at Ascot today with a light breeze and we are going to put a spot of water on the course tonight,; around 4mm on the whole of the course, and I hope that is all the watering we will need to do....I hope to start the fixture with good, good to firm ground."

William Haggas' Aqlaam trades at [6.6] which is a little short in my opinion as he has a good bit to make up on figures. He beat Famous Name in the Prix Du Moulin De Longchamp earlier on this month and may be one to consider in the place market. But if I were backing to win, I'd be looking for [7.0] or higher.

But it's time to get off the fence - and I won't win any prizes for originality for putting up Rip Van Winkle as the selection. But if I were chalking this one up, I'd have him as low as [1.9] so on that basis, I'm happy to take his current price of [2.1].

Best of luck with your Ascot betting.