Ante-Post Betting: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

General / Wayne Bailey / 29 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Sea The Stars will attempt to emulate his dam (Urban Sea) by winning the Arc this Sunday.

“My French informants tell me that apart from the racecourse at Longchamp, much of the ground in that part of Paris is brown - so it is good to hear that they are going to put a bit of water on the track” (John Oxx).

Wayne Bailey takes a look at the main protagonists as Sunday's big race at Longchamp draws ever closer...

The Arc is the richest race in Europe and with the weather staying fine, the 2009 version could go down in history as one of the great renewals and see Sea The Stars achieve legendary status.

What more can one say about the John Oxx trained colt that hasn't already been said? It's really just a matter of sitting tight and hoping the weather holds out. As I write, the forecast is for dry weather over Paris this week and John Oxx has told reporters he's happy with how things stand:

"My French informants tell me that apart from the racecourse at Longchamp, much of the ground in that part of Paris is brown - so it is good to hear that they are going to put a bit of water on the track."

Over the weekend, Sea The Stars finally went odds-on but his price contracted even further this morning (Tuesday) and is now as low as [1.82]. Having watched his price drop from double figures, I don't think I'd be keen on taking such odds at this stage of the game. If you were lucky enough to take the larger prices as recommended here some time back, I'd suggest you lay off now if you haven't already done so - and enjoy a free bet or a green book. If running to form, Sea The Stars will win - there's no doubt about that, but I think this race can be enjoyed for what it is without resorting to betting at that price.

I've only been following racing in a serious way for just over a decade, and I realise that there are plenty of readers older than me that have seen the greats over the years - but Sea The Stars is one of the best horses I've ever witnessed so I'm genuinely hoping he wins and rightly takes his place among the legends of racing. I'm also delighted for Oxx and Kinane - and as much as I respect Ballydoyle, it's refreshing to see another yard on top of the game now and then.

Fame And Glory remains a constant threat but his price of [8.4] on Betfair is probably a fair reflection of his chances. If he was around in any other season, we would probably be singing his praises and he's unlucky to have come up against a freakishly good horse in 2009. It must be tempting for connections to keep him racing next season and I hope they do just that. On form, he's the second best horse in the Arc and looks set to take some place money.

Back in July, I suggested that [18.0] was a decent price for Conduit and he now trades slightly lower at [14.0]. I don't want to fall into the old trap of giving too much attention to the British and Irish trained horses in the race but I think the market has it right and his third place in the betting is justified. Once again, we got to witness the stamina that this animal keeps in reserve when he won the King George in powerful fashion. Stoute has never won this race so he's sure to have his four-year-old finely tuned and raring to go.

Of the outsiders, Vision D'Etat is worth a mention around [18.0] and could also be one to consider in the place market. Don't forget that the colt likes to get the head in front and has now won eight races from eleven starts. Eric Libaud is quite bullish about his chances although he does have a good bit to make up on figures when compared with the Irish horses that head the market.

Best of luck with your Longchamp betting!

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