Ante-Post Betting Preview: The John Smith's Northumberland Plate

General / Wayne Bailey / 23 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Bailey takes a look at the main contenders for the 'Pitmen's Derby' which takes place this Saturday at Newcastle...

Ajaan
He's the current ante-post favourite on Betfair priced [10.0], but those odds seem a little short at this early stage. Arc Bleu won at [17.0] last year (after drifting heavily on the day) and is typical of the recent big priced victors in recent years. I don't want to put people off too much as Ajaan is a decent sort and can act on various types of ground. He can stay the distance too and is certainly in with a good chance - however, from a value point of view, he doesn't appeal to me.

Judgethemoment
This colt has built a little picket fence beside his name this season and is sure to attract support. He carries a 5lb penalty but Jane Chapple-Hyam has told the press that he's in flying form since his Ascot Stakes win. He's a reliable sort that' s rarely out of the frame and can usually be trusted to give you a good run for your money.

Wells Lyrical
Brian Smart's four-year-old kept on battling in his seasonal debut handicap at Ripon, and his trainer should be pleased with the second place performance. He finished off last season in great style and is still improving with every race. He'll enjoy the distance, and depending on prices, he may be one to take in the place market.

Hits Only Vic
He's a strong sort and a decent handicapper. From watching him race, I assumed he liked the shorter distances - but he had no problem staying at Haydock recently and he seems versatile so I may have to review my assessment. He's been successful on a range of ground, so there's no ante-post worries on the weather front.

Electrolyser
He's had two wins from six races and is expected to improve over the season. He ran reasonably well when fourth at York on his seasonal reappearance but I'm not convinced he showed the same sort of spark as last year and I'll take a watching brief for now.

Speed Ticket
This horse used to be trained by Luca Cumani and it's interesting to see Jessica Harrington send him back over to the UK for a race. He's been doing well in Ireland and ran with credit when second to Sesenta at the Curragh in heavy ground last-time-out. I'd like to see him do well but he could be out of his depth in this company.

Keenes Day
Johnston had aimed him at the Ascot Stakes, but he ran out of steam in the business end of the race and has some stamina questions to answer. He's been doing very well on the all-weather circuit but as yet, he hasn't transferred that form to turf.

Arc Bleu
The Irish Revenue recently landed Tony Martin with a tax bill of €104,770 so he's going to have to do a few handicap specials to get some of that money back! As mentioned, Arc Bleu won the race last year and was only added to the line-up late on. He's a dual performer but Martin is adamant that he's best on the flat so it will be interesting to see how the eight-year-old performs on Saturday. Again, a watching brief is advised.

Record Breaker
Judging by his odds on Betfair, his participation may be in doubt but if he does make the final line-up, Record Breaker has serious claims. He's versatile and is improving with every race so this contest could be right up his street. Johnston believes he is just short of listed class and expects the five-year-old to continue to improve over the summer.

Kayf Aramis
Again, his odds on the exchange suggest that he may not run so proceed with caution if placing a back bet. He's useful on both codes and seems to like a big field. However, he ran out of gas in the Ascot stakes so has a few questions to answer.

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