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The stats are against the great Dylan Thomas

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French racing expert Le Casaque Noire looks ahead to French racing's blue-ribband event

The legendary Sea Bird did the Derby-Arc double in 1965 and since then 19 other Derby winners have tried and only Mill Reef, Lammtarra and Sinndar have succeeded. On the face of that evidence, it seems only an exceptional Derby winner can hope to land the double and even then, might not be good enough - witness the failures of Generous, Sir Ivor and Nijinsky, for example.

Is Authorized exceptional? Does he really compare to most of those names? I would say not - had he won the Eclipse, or even side-stepped it, the benefit of the doubt might be in order. But having fluffed his lines then, I can't help feeling that his current price of around 2.6 is cramped to say the least. Rain earlier in the week saw him contract from around 3s but now the sun's shining (and no rain forecast), in my book he's a gift to any would-be layers at this price.

That said, three-year-old colts have dominated recently, with 11 of the last 14 runnings going to this age group.

And the best guide in recent years has been the Prix Niel (all seven of Andre Fabre's Arc winners won this race except Peintre Celebre who finished second!).

This year, a ring-rusty Soldier Of Fortune won a shade comfortably and in record time (previously held by Sinndar), on ground much faster than ideal. With a little more give expected on Sunday it's hard to see him out of the frame - sure to be ridden handily behind a pacemaker and definitely not stopping in the straight. He's my idea of the winner and at the current 6.0 looks cracking value.

Placed horses also have a decent record - second-placed Peintre Celebre (1997) in and Bago, third in 2004 both went on to win. That gives plenty of hope to Sagara and Zambezi Sun supporters (second and third respectively this year).

Like the winner, Zambezi Sun was also coming back after a lay-off and has been working in grand style at home since, but I still can't find any obvious reason, hunches aside, to say he can turn the tables on Sunday.

Ditto Sagara, but trading at more than six times the price of Khalid Abdullah's colt, he looks an interesting proposition for those seeking a long-shot that will give a run for your money.

Had I owned Dylan Thomas, he'd have been fitted with blinkers. I just get the feeling he isn't quite putting it all in. But he'll certainly benefit from the stronger handling of Kieran Fallon, and I suspect he'll be given a more forceful ride (ie. nearer the front of a strong pace). Unfortunately, as an older horse, the stats. are against him. The same applies to Saddex and Getaway. The German raider has been well-supported on the back of the rain earlier in the week, but with the drying conditions, the best he can hope for is a place.
Getaway, supplemented on Thursday, looks a definite after-thought once the same owners Manduro was ruled out. His form is over further and is not up to this standard anyway.
The stats. for fillies are even worse, so I'm afraid Mandesha, blinkers or not, probably won't be winning. And in any case, on all known form, she's got a bit to find.

The spanner in the works could be the draw, which is of critical importance - only one winner (Sakhee) in the last 14 years has come from box 10 or higher. No worries for Soldier of Fortune (5) but a disaster for Authorized - 12 of 12!