French Racing / Wayne Bailey / 02 October 2008 / 4 Comments

This Sunday, Zarkava attempts to become the first female horse since 1993 to win Europe's richest race. At [2.86] however, the value has all but gone writes Wayne Bailey...

With just a few days to go, how is your Arc ante-post book looking?

I'm pretty excited about this race as it's my first time visiting Longchamp to watch the action live in the flesh. I must admit, I've no spectacular prices in my books, but I'm glad I took Zarkava at [4.7] back in August, as [2.9] or thereabouts makes little appeal now in a fiercely competitive race.

It's true, Zarkava is definitely something special, and in that article I suggested that her only weak point was that she was unproven at the distance. Any distance doubts however, were smashed when she won the Prix Vermeille in fantastic style. So why then, is [2.9] too short?

Well, it's hard to pick holes in her that's for sure. Her form is rock solid and she's reported to be in cracking form. But she simply hasn't faced a challenge quite like this before. Duke Of Marmalade needs no introduction here, and should the ground hold up, he is sure to dig deep and hopefully put in the battle of a lifetime.

I was left disappointed when my ante-post bet on 'the Duke' for the Irish Champion Stakes went down the tubes, but O'Brien believes that missing that race may work to his benefit: "We have seen what Duke can do this year. He's in good form. He missed the Irish Champion Stakes and that could have been blessing, he's had a bit of time and come back fresh, well and very happy."

Then, of course, we've Soldier Of Fortune to consider. It will be interesting to see which of the two Johnny Murtagh chooses, and the price of that horse is sure to take a dip when announced.

O'Brien noted that Soldier Of Fortune likes to run fresh, and a few months off may have done him the world of good. However, after much hype, he only managed fifth in last years' race and I think a place bet is the safest option here.

But let's not forget the very strong British challenge in the guise of Youmzain. In case we need reminding, he beat Soldier Of Fortune back in June in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud - and it's not an easy feat to win that contest. He'll have a lot to do if he's to reverse the form with Duke Of Marmalade, but the vibes from training are all good. Of course, no-one would begrudge Mick Channon a win here after a difficult few months.

Conclusion

Racing journalism is a funny business in that writers often have no idea how many people do (or don't) take their advice. If anyone out there followed my ante post article (which suggested backing Zarkava at [4.7] and the Duke at [7.8]) I'd suggest that you hold on to those bets and leave it at that. With the benefit of hindsight, [4.7] seems like great value, and I'm not about to spoil that by laying out.

If you haven't placed a bet yet, I believe that the value has dried up for Zarkava. Duke Of Marmalade still makes appeal but keep an eye on the ground. Yesterday's Racing Post correctly noted that the French early going reports are often questionable, so it may be worth waiting until near race-time before placing that bet.

In the place market, [3.8] or thereabouts would be an acceptable price for Youmzain. Soldier Of Fortune also looks like a solid place bet, but I'll take no less than [2.5] for that.

This is one of the best Flat races on the calendar, so whether you've placed a bet or not - my final piece of advice is simply to enjoy the spectacle!