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Manduro can show his talent in the Arc

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Our French horseracing expect tells us why Saturday is such an important day in terms of predicting the winner of the Arc

This weekend at Longchamp it's make or break time for several leading Arc fancies.

In the Prix Foy it's time for Manduro to step-up and show the world he can not just stay the Arc trip, but excel over it. His connections coughed-up to supplement the pacemaker Sommertag, so there should be no excuses about pace (or lack of it). Geoff Wragg sends over Dragon Dancer who finally got his head in front last time, but even if he's back to the form of his 3½l fourth to Rail Link in the last year's Prix Niel, he won't be good enough. More interesting is Mandesha, like Manduro, trying the mile-and-a-half for the first time.

I think she'll stay. In fact, looking at her fast-finishing effort against Peeping Fawn last time out, she might need the extra two furlongs now. Before that defeat she had reeled-off an incredible seven consecutive victories (disqualified in one), the last three being at Gr.1 level. All reports suggest she's as good as ever and is sure to run a big race. However, I don't think the race will be run to suit her. I see Manduro tucked in behind his leader and Dragon Dancer with Mandesha held-up. Manduro takes it up at the distance and holds a strong-finishing and never-nearer Mandesha.

If a real upset is to be caused, it'll probably come from Italian raider Distant Way. He's a consistent sort with a Gr.1 win and efforts like a ¾l second to Ramonti to his name.

The Prix Niel has been the best guide to the Arc in recent seasons. Most French interest centers around market springer Sageburg, who is unbeaten in three starts. Every day news trickles out from the Fabre stable about just how good this colt is. He's only a Listed winner so far, but has a very similar profile to Rail Link, whom Fabre delivered to win last year's big race. However, he could go off near favourite, and for a horse that has yet to prove himself, let alone his stamina, it's probably wise to look elsewhere.

Zambezi Sun shot to Arc favouritism after his demolotion job in the Grand Prix de Paris (Sagara third). To the eye, that was an impressive performance, but there are plenty of negatives too - the form of the race looks weak and the time was poor. He's got a high-knee action and probably needs cut in the ground (likely to be riding no slower than good on Sunday), and reading between the lines, he's going to need this race.

That leaves Aidan O'Brien's runner, Soldier Of Fortune. Although fifth in the Derby, that has to be viewed a disappointment. The market expected last time, and he delivered in style, pulling nine lengths clear of a decent field. However, that was on very testing ground and back in July. Can he reproduce that on a faster surface after a 10 week break?
Spirit One (back to near his best last time) might be the answer at a massive price, despite having a few lengths to find on the book.

At first glance the Prix Vermeille looks a typically open fillies contest. But on closer inspection the race is easily solved!

The three-year-old form ties in very neatly - West Wind had both Diyakalanie and Vadapolina (who now has the supplemented Takaniya to assist her) behind her in the Prix de Diane. However, the improving Tashelka, who is trying this trip for the first time, beat both Diyakalanie and Beatrix Kiddo a length further than West Wind did when scooting home last time. The form lines give her the clear edge and I think she'll improve further now she's stepped-up in distance.

Despite the good vibes from the Cecil yard, Passage Of Time will surely need the run, having not been out since the Oaks.

Mrs Lindsay and Legerete have to put disappointing efforts behind them to have any chance.
Of the older fillies, it would be foolish to ignore the still-improving Macleya. She stays every yard of the trip and a reproduction of her ¾l second to Mandesha at Saint Cloud in May might be good enough.