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Longchamps Betting: the Poule d'Essai des Poulains

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Just a week on from the English Guineas sees the running of the French equivalents at Longchamp on Sunday. Can Rio de la Plata shirk Godolphin's poor run of form to find victory?

The colts contest, the Poule d'Essai des Poulains, which looks extremely competitive, not least in terms of numbers, 19 coming under starters orders. Needless to say, unless one of these is exceptional, a decent draw is a must. That's a problem for a few of the fancied runners with Thewayyouare, Tamayuz and Rio De La Plata all out wide. Of the three I see Tamayuz coming-off best - he maintained his unbeaten record when scrambling home in a slow run affair on his reappearance and should improve bundles for that. His trainer Freddie Head is also in decent form. Thewayyouare makes his seasonal reappearance, and this looks more of a fact-finding mission than a major objective. Andre Fabre's colt finished last season on a high, taking his last four starts including the Gr.1 Criterium International but showed a preference for softer ground than he will encounter here (likely to be good). Also, he looked a stayer in the making, and a mile will prove much too sharp for him now.

Godolphin's racing manager Simon Crisford described Rio De La Plata's draw as "shocking", which is a word I'd use for the current form of their runners. He's top-rated on his juvenile form but the stable form is a major worry.

Connections considered running the very progressive Paco Boy in the 2000 last weekend but they've supplemented him here instead. Again his draw of 11 isn't perfect but I expect a bold show. Another English challenger to catch the eye is Paul Cole's unbeaten General Eliott. He's been well-backed on both his starts, both of which he's won, and I expect him to make a bold bid to keep this unbeaten record in tact at a decent price.

Aidan O'Brien confirmed his decent form at Chester last week, and fields three here. All look to have some kind of chance, but Johnny Murtagh has plumped for the speedy Georgebernardshaw, a wide-margin winner of both his starts this year.

In stark contrast to her brother Freddy, Mme Head's horses have made a stuttering start to the season. On the book Hello Morning should be thereabouts as he's closely matched with the best of these but perhaps just a few pounds short of being good enough to win it.
Jean-Claude Rouget saddles the strongly-fancied Yorktown but he doesn't look a Group One horse to me. However, the vibes are good and he's chosen to run him in preference to several stablemates that looked to have a better chance.

I wouldn't put anyone off backing one of the outsiders and my idea of the best of the long-shots is Falco who was impressive last time, although needing to step-up on the bare form of that. He might be able to.

By contrast, the filly's race, the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches, looks little more than a penalty kick for hot favourite Zarakava. She'd have won at Newmarket without breaking sweat, and this looks much less competitive. On her seasonal debut she cantered over Conference Call and Lessing, so those two look to have a mountain to climb to turn that around here. Modern Look was comfortably held by Natagora in her prep race but should improve a ton for that (looked burly and was weak in the market that day). She holds Blue Cayenne and Silent Sunday on that effort.

The pick on form of the O'Brien's duo looks to be Halfway To Heaven, but Murtagh stays loyal to Psalm, despite finishing well behind her stablemate on her reappearance.

The unbeaten Kayaba will have her supporters, but stable jockey Olivier Peslier has chosen to stick with Goldikova. She has a bit in hand over Fabre's Azabara (interesting booking in Frankie Dettori) who beat her by inches five weeks ago but is now 7lb worse off. However, Fabre's string are in much better form now, so I wouldn't say she can't come out on top again despite the form book telling us otherwise.

Jonathan Pease's runners always have to be respected in this type of race and he runs an improver in the shape of Destare. She needs to find more to figure but is likely to.
Richard Hannon, who has the fancied Paco Boy in the colts race, runs Dream Day whose second to Muthabara on her reappearance leaves her with something to find.

Mick Channon was very unlucky with Nahoodh at Newmarket, and his Nijoom Dubai comes here with a similar profile. However, these all look to be running for place money, as it will be a major shock if the Aga Khan filly doesn't win this, and in some style.