York Ebor Betting: Young guns set to fly over the Knavesmire

Events / Simon Rowlands / 11 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

"One set of figures stands out in the Ebor, and that is the impressive performance of 3-y-os over the years."

Simon Rowlands is looking forward to the Ebor where he thinks the youngsters may have the edge in Europe's richest Flat handicap.

The Ebor meeting at York is always one of the British Flat season's highlights, and next week's four-day fixture promises to be better than ever. Sea The Stars and Mastercraftsman head the market for the International Stakes on Tuesday; Sariska and Midday dominate the betting for the Yorkshire Oaks on Thursday; and Kingsgate Native leads the way in an open-looking Nunthorpe Stakes on the Friday.

The Ebor Handicap, Europe's richest Flat handicap, is the highlight of day two on Wednesday, and ante-post betting on it has been lively for some time now. I had a look at the last ten Ebors to see if there were any "trends" that may help punters in their quest for winners to back, or for losers to lay.

One set of figures stands out, and that is the impressive performance of 3-y-os in the race over the years. There are slight apparent advantages to penalised horses (2.28 lengths better than non-penalised horses) and for horses running from handicap marks between 100 and 104, but nothing that compares with 3-y-os, who have outperformed average margins beaten by 4.05 lengths.

Not many 3-y-os have run, largely due to the questionable rule that eliminates them according to weight rather than handicap mark. But they provided the winners in 1998, 2000 and 2001 and six placed horses between 2001 and 2007 (the 2008 race was cancelled).

The market is headed by the 3-y-o Changingoftheguard, but of at least as much interest further down the weights are the likes of his fellow youngsters Above Average, Saptapadi and Nehaam, providing they get into a race in which the cut-off weight is likely to be somewhere between 8-2 and 8-6.

I also looked at the draw, which will be made next Monday, but the only clear feature was that horses drawn in the middle - between stalls 9 and 15 - have an inferior record to those on either flanks. That is not unexpected in a big field, even at a trip of fully 14 furlongs.

Lastly, at the risk of repeating myself, do not listen to those who claim that "York is a front-runners' track". I covered this in an earlier blog and would just like to add at this point that the Racing Post close-ups of the last five winners of the Ebor have started with: "held up towards rear" (Purple Moon, 2007); "behind" (Mudawin, 2006); "held up and behind" (Sergeant Cecil, 2005); "held up towards rear" (Mephisto, 2004); and "behind" (Saint Alebe, 2003).

* * *

Last weekend went wrong on the racing front pretty much from start to finish. Firstly, my horse One Way Or Another failed to make the cut for the Shergar Cup Mile and got rerouted to Haydock. Then I was one of many (including the trainer's representative) who got stuck in horrendous traffic on the way to the course, meaning that I missed "my" race by five minutes. Lastly, One Way Or Another turned in an oddly flat effort in finishing only sixth. It transpired that he had swallowed dirt during the race and was considerably distressed for a while after it.
Oh, and I missed backing the stable's 25/1 winner Sutton Veny due to another traffic jam on the way home.

The Shergar Cup itself has to be considered a qualified success again. If nothing else, people in racing are waking up to the reality that the sport needs to reach out beyond its narrow confines and that initiatives like this may provide some sort of an answer.

With this in mind, I have to say that I am heartened by the sounds coming from the Racing For Change team, if not with every last strategy and objective they propose.

* * *

One initiative that does not deserve to catch on is the 'Speed Bonus' at Goodwood on September 13. This will involve eight handicaps, ranging from 5f to 2m, with a bonus for the horse who posts the fastest winning time compared with Racing Post standard times, adjusted for distance.

You don't have to be a genius to figure out that this depends heavily on the accuracy of the Racing Post standard times in the first place. And you don't have to be a sleuth of Sherlock Holmes proportions to discover thereafter that some distances produce "fast" times (according to those standards) far more often than others and far more often than they should.

I'll take the 5f, 9.9f and 16f races against all others if anyone is interested in an even-money bet.

* * *

The 'Speed Bonus' appears to have been the brainchild in large part of Paul Dixon, president of the Racehorse Owners' Association and chair of the Horsemen's Group, which purports to represent owners, trainers, jockeys and stable staff. Indeed, the only racing "customer group" Dixon is not apparently entitled to speak for is that for punters, which is ironic, given how he is busily dispensing advice to punters left, right and centre.

Seldom, in the field of human conflict, can so little have been done for so many as by the racing authorities for punters over the years.

Those authorities have stubbornly resisted calls for representation from punters in decision-making processes and for the establishment of a body that considers punters' interests. Instead, the authorities have been complicit in the systematic parting of those punters from their cash at every turn.

What sort of response do they expect when they then ask punters to boycott certain bookmakers in order that they can dig themselves out of the mess caused by their consistent mismanagement of racing?