Events / Graham Cunningham / 28 November 2008 /

It's a huge weekend in jumps racing again so who better to whet your appetite than Racing UK Analyst Graham Cunningham.

Air Force looks the One to take home the brandy

One of the most important things to do after having an ante-post bet is to look at the race completely afresh once the big day arrives.

And, having revisited the Hennessy Gold Cup since the final declarations were published, I see no reason to regret backing Air Force One at [8.0] to land Saturday's Newbury showpiece.

But first, a swift line on the main dangers. Big Buck's has been primed for this and is plainly a player if his jumping holds up, while Oedipe represents bang-in-form Nicky Henderson but hasn't caught my imagination in the way he has impressed some.

The weights have gone up to suit the freewheeling Island Flyer, whose bold jumping style looks bound to attract in running players, but Tom George's gelding is 7lb higher than when pipped by the exposed Cornish Sett at Wincanton and turning away challenge after challenge from the front in such a big field here looks a tall order.

Hennessy winners seldom line up after losing streaks of 14, which is a worry for Slim Pickings, while I'm inclined to agree with Timeform's view that Snoopy Loopy has it all on at these weights.

On a more positive note, I'm well aware that Albertas Run is a danger to all if back to the form he showed to land the SunAlliance Chase, while the fact that John Quinn feels Character Building can better last year's third behind the mighty Denman is also worth noting.

However, Air Force One remains top of the short list. Some people seem adamant that Charlie Mann's chestnut needs to go right-handed, but that flies in the face of the fact that he finished second in a Grade 2 hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and it's highly unlikely that a flat left-handed track like Newbury will trouble him.

What isn't in doubt is that Air Force One is a good young chaser. His crushing success in a Punchestown Grade 1 was mighty impressive and his comeback second behind Roll Along at Ascot represented a fine Hennessy trial.

Mann was delighted when the handicapper raised Air Force One just 3lb for that. I think he was right to be and anyone who backs him win and place at [7.0] or bigger can look forward to a fine run for their money.

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To lay or not to lay as Drever bids for four in a row

Number one on my list of resolutions for this jumps season is to avoid laying Inglis Drever in-running at all costs. Come to think of it let's amend that to avoid laying Inglis Drever full stop.

Perhaps it is a legacy of having laid him on his hurdling debut at Aintree back when Betfair was still in short pants in November 2003, but it has taken me too long to latch on to just how good Howard Johnson's gelding is.

Yes, he tends to run lazily and Aintree no longer seems his favoured venue, but this is a mighty stayer with three World Hurdles and three consecutive renewals of the Long Distance Hurdle under his belt.

But can he make it four at in the 2.05 at Newbury on Saturday? Old rival Blazing Bailey is sure to run his usual good race after a successful sortie on the Flat here, while Pettifour and Mobaasher are newcomers to the party after dominating the finish to a Grade 2 at Wetherby.

However, anyone who fancies Pettifour and Mobaasher would do well to note that Inglis Drever's vastly inferior stablemate No Refuge was only just behind them at Wetherby.

However you read the form book, the Wetherby principals have a gulf to bridge if they are to beat the champion stayer on these terms.

Will I be backing the Drever to make it four Long Distance Hurdles on the bounce? Not necessarily. Will I be reverting to type and laying him again? Not on your life, I won't.

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Sublimity one for the each way thieves provided Newcastle gets the go ahead

Frost permitting, Newcastle's Fighting Fifth Hurdle (3.30) promises looks bound to have the each way thieves sniffing around for several reasons.

First, unless something goes amiss we have the "dead eight" runners; second, at least three of them seem most unlikely to be on the premises from two out; and third, the hot favourite Punjabi may not be quite the good thing that the market suggests.

Granted, Nicky Henderson's gelding thrived last spring - finishing third in the Champion Hurdle before landing a Grade 1 at Punchestown - and since then he has shown further improvement on the Flat with two wins in May.

However, Punjabi will probably need to strike for home early in the straight in order to win this and I wonder if one of a trio of dangerous hold-up horses might run him down late.

Blue Bajan is an improver with a smart turn of foot, while anyone tempted to think time is catching up with Harchibald would do well to note that he has won this twice and made Al Eile and Katchit look ordinary for his latest success 12 months ago.

Last but not least, we have Sublimity, who has left John Carr to join rookie handler Robbie Hennessy having been beaten twice by Punjabi last spring. Those two defeats will ensure Sublimity starts a fair price, but he's better than he showed on both occasions as the mud found him out at Cheltenham and he was ridden with too much confidence at Punchy.

In summary, I'm not averse to having a crack at Punjabi here. Harchibald will almost certainly trade short at some point, but it's way too early to assume that Sublimity has lost the dash that won him last year's Champion Hurdle and having Davy Russell aboard to replace the injured Philip Carberry certainly doesn't harm his chance.

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Tranquil Sea has hidden depths ahead of his Drinmore test

Lastly this week, a few words on the big Sunday card at Fairyhouse.

And, given that my editor Joe Dyer has told me to keep it brief because the meeting is covered in detail elsewhere on this site, the two crucial words are Tranquil Sea.

Edward O'Grady's gelding really blossomed over hurdles last spring and made a highly impressive chasing debut at Cork recently.

He takes a marked step up in class in the Drinmore Chase at 1.40, but I'm keen to be against Forpadydeplasterer after his laboured Punchestown win. The hardy Trafford Lad looks a bigger danger after two wins at the latter venue, but Tranquil Sea looks open to bags of improvement over fences and his finishing speed could make the difference in a race with a rich tradition for producing stars of the future.

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