Events / Graham Cunningham / 27 December 2008 / 1

The temperature is dropping but the action continues to hot up as the Christmas jumping programme continues. RUK analyst Graham Cunningham casts his eye over the best of the action from Chepstow, Kempton and Wetherby.

Miko and Mon Mome the likely lads for the Chepstow challenge

The good news is that I fancy a couple of horses to run well in Saturday's Coral Welsh National at Chepstow (2.05). But the bad news is that this year's race looks just about the toughest renewal of this historic handicap in living memory.

Nenuphar Collonges has been a leading fancy ever since his Bangor win, but his tendency to run lazily remains a slight concern. Officier de Reserve and Halcon Genelardais also have much to recommend them, while Irish raider Notre Pere is the sort of stamina glutton who could relish this Christmas slog.

However, my two win and place options for moderate stakes are Mon Mome and Miko de Beauchene.

Mon Mome has pedigree in this race having finished second to Halcon Genelardais two years ago and looked better than ever when getting the better of the high-class Star de Mohaison in a big handicap at Cheltenham recently. He's well treated under a small penalty and Aidan Coleman's 3lb claim remains a very valuable boost.

Ratings followers will probably look to oppose Miko de Beauchene given that he has to race from a mark 17lb higher than when pipping Halcon Genelardais in this race last year.

But this strapping gelding has earned every extra pound of his hike in the weights. He isn't fully exposed after just seven runs over fences and anyone who backs him at a double figure price is likely to be able to trade out at much shorter odds in-running.

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Rocking Robin can bloom in the Desert Orchid

Not for the first time this season it looks a case of Nicholls against Henderson in the feature race at Kempton.

Nicholls comes at the Desert Orchid Chase (3.15) two-handed with Twist Magic and Takeroc, while Henderson saddles one of the most dangerous floaters in the entire two mile chasing division in the shape of runaway Newbury winner Petite Robin.

All three have intriguing questions to answer. Twist Magic's relates to whether he has shrugged off the effects of a slithering fall two out when in the process of running a blinder behind the outstanding Master Minded in the Tingle Creek at Sandown, while Takeroc ran very well for third in the same race but will need to jump a shade more aggressively to shine here.

And what of Petite Robin? Granted, he was plainly thrown in when sauntering home off a mark of 132 at Newbury on Hennessy day and his revised official rating of 150 still leaves him with a little to find to win here.

However, Petite Robin took some useful handicappers apart with ruthless efficiency at Newbury. He's open to bundles of improvement after just five career runs and this looks the ideal platform for him to announce his arrival into the big time.

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Tidal and Moon can outshine Calatagan in the Castleford

Wetherby regulars will look no further than Calatagan when Malcolm Jefferson's popular chestnut bids to land the Skybet.com Handicap Chase at 3.00.

But I'm not sure they will be rewarded. Granted, Calatagan is back on a decent mark, but he was slightly flattered to come from well back in a strongly-run race 12 months ago and his form since that win has been patchy to say the least.

The problem is solid alternatives aren't easy to pin down. Tidal Fury has been brought along steadily since joining Ferdy Murphy and may well have been trained with this in mind, while Moon Over Miami is becoming an all-or-nothing character but has more than enough ability to go very close if in the mood.

Much depends on how they bet, but I suspect that Calatagan will corner a fair chunk of the market because of his impressive Wetherby record. If that's the case then a split stakes bet on Tidal Fury and Moon Over Miami might be the best way to approach the race.

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1. Bernie | 28 December 2008

   oh dear! Awful.

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