Events / Graham Cunningham / 22 August 2008 /

In the blue corner sits Duke Of Marmalade. And in the green corner is New Approach as the two heavyweights of European racing finally get it on in the rescheduled Juddmonte International Stakes. Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham offers his views on the big clash and the best of the rest at Newmarket and Goodwood.

Newmarket

1.25

This has the look of crunch time for Winker Watson, who is the potential class act in the field based on his best form, but it's also worth noting that he hasn't won for over a year now and that Peter Chapple-Hyam has saddled just three winners since the end of June. It all adds up to potential market volatility as layers look to take him on and, with so many dangers in a surprisingly large field, my instinct is to row in with them.

Battle Paint was impressive at Donny but has much more on his plate here, so the tough and genuine King's Apostle looks the win and place value. Granted, his form has come in handicaps rather than Pattern races, but a repeat of his fine Stewards' Cup second would give him a fine chance and the faster they go the better for him.

3.35

Better late than never for the clash between New Approach and Duke of Marmalade, but whether this is a serious betting race is another matter given that the market looks to have got the principals pretty much where they ought to be.

Tactics will be very important, but Johnny Murtagh has hardly missed a beat all year in that department and that factor just sways me in favour of the Duke as he bids to end Aidan O'Brien's Group 1 barren spell of almost a month.

If there is to be a shock then Phoenix Tower could be the one to provide it. Granted, he was well behind Duke of Marmalade at Ascot, but he's progressive and reliable and looks sure to run another solid race.

Goodwood

2.45

There are two main tactical questions here. The first relates to whether Darryll Holland can steal enough of a lead to enable Tungsten Strike to repeat last year's emphatic win in this race. And the second relates to whether Dane O'Neill can coax as much from the enigmatic Sanbuch as Ryan Moore did at Goodwood last time.

Tungsten Strike is a dangerous horse to give a soft lead to and returns in fine form after chasing home the mighty Yeats in the Goodwood Cup, but I suspect I will keep him on my side and make a lay of Sanbuch my main trade on the race.

Granted, Luca Cumani's colt has masses of ability, but he remains prone to running in snatches and the small field, the absence of Moore and the issue of whether blinkers will work as well for a second time are all potential negatives as he moves up a grade.

3.15

Only five runners and tactics will be important for hot favourite Raven's Pass given that he tends to be settled towards the rear and produced as late as possible. John Gosden considered having him make the running when he played second fiddle to Henrythenavigator again in the Sussex Stakes, so a change in tack is possible, but the odds are that Dubai's Touch will make the running and that Raven's Pass will be poised to swoop entering the final furlong.

Strictly on ratings he ought to win by clear daylight, but this could get messy and I'm inclined to think that Bankable could be the value alternative. Granted, he's yet to win outside Listed company, but his form remains progressive if you discount that killer draw in the Royal Hunt Cup and there is every chance he would have beaten Passage of Time at Newbury last time had Dane O'Neill been a shade more positive on him.

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