Events / Graham Cunningham / 11 July 2008 / 1

The July Festival is over, but there is no rest for the wicked this Saturday as Channel 4's crack team head to York, Chester and Ascot. Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham casts his eye over eight live races and pinpoints four to keep a particularly close eye on.

Chester 2.25 - Totescoop6 City Plate

One of the toughest puzzles of the day, with precious little between a clutch of horses, and the market could prove volatile. I doubt I will be going in too hard, but a strong pace looks very likely given that Tamagin, Beckermet, Tasdeer and Welsh Emperor have all gone from the front.

That could set things up for a finisher and Army Of Angels and Blythe Knight are the two to focus on. Army Of Angels handles softish ground very well and looked as good as ever early last season, but his long absence is a concern and stats followers will be well aware that Godolphin's record here in the last five years reads just 1-14.

By contrast, Blythe Knight has been on top of his game recently, winning an Epsom Group 3 for the second year running before being caught out by a steady gallop at Newmarket. Lack of pace seems most unlikely to be a problem this time and a small win and place interest looks a fair way to start the day.



Ascot 2.55 - Plymouth Gin Summer Mile Stakes

Anyone tempted to take Saeed Bin Suroor at face value when he says Ramonti "will need the race" on his reappearance should also note that Godolphin were also adamant that Hala Bek would be short of his peak at Nottingham on Thursday.

Hala Bek duly shrugged off a 25-month absence in fine style, but even so I will be sorely tempted to take Ramonti on here despite the fact that he won four Group 1 contests last season and never flinches in a battle.

It seems Godolphin are running Elusive Warning to ensure and honest gallop. That will plainly suit Ramonti, but it will also suit Archipenko and Cesare. The former has thrived since joining the formidable Mike De Kock team, while Cesare finished behind Ramonti more than once last year but has a handy weight pull this time and is in fine fettle after finishing a slightly unlucky fourth in the Queen Anne here.

Pressing is another interesting contender on his return to a mile and all in all this looks a market to get involved in early on. I suspect Ramonti will drift on the back of cautionary quotes from connections and will lay him accordingly in the hope of backing him back at longer odds close to the off. By contrast, Cesare could shorten as the day goes on and the 5lb he receives from Ramonti and Archipenko could be very significant if Jamie Spencer produces him at the right moment.


York 3.15 - John Smith's Cup

The 49th renewal of this historic handicap looks every bit as tough as any of the previous 48. Mutajarred has been gambled on and, though the fancy prices are gone, his consistency and ability to handle softish ground are sure to stand him in good stead.

Monte Alto is another major player having been given more to do than ideal at Ascot, while Proponent promises to be well served by this slightly shorter trip having faltered late on at the royal meeting.

However, the more I look at this race the more it sets up for a combined win and place lay of Supaseus, Ezdiyaad and Flying Clarets.

Supaseus refused to be denied in the Wolferton at Ascot but is unlikely to have it so easy in front this time and will do well to confirm placings with Monte Alto. Ezdiyaad is held by Proponent on Ascot form and is also a quirky type who may need things to fall just right, while Flying Clarets simply looks to have a very tough task at these weights. Granted, she finished a fine second in this race 12 months ago, but she races from a 17lb higher mark on her return and was hardly impressive in holding the 77- rated Sam's Secret in a weak Class 3 contest at Hamilton.


Chester 3.35 - Toteswinger City Wall Stakes

The crucial point here is that the pair with the best form are drawn nearer the local police station than the favoured inside rail. Step forward the ultra-consistent Borderlescott, who has drawn stall nine for his Roodee debut, and the highly progressive Oldjoesaid, who is widest of all in trap ten for his first visit to Chester.

Stats followers will urge you to steer clear of any horse drawn so wide over five on this unique circuit and it will be fascinating to see what the Betfair market makes of two horses who would almost certainly pull clear of this lot on a conventional track.

The same stats followers will also tell you to pay maximum respect to speedy horses drawn low over five at Chester, but I suspect I will be ignoring their advice by laying Angus Newz strongly both in the win and the place market.

Granted, Mick Quinn's mare is on a roll after winning at Chester and Newmarket, and she's drawn to attack on the inner, but this is a significant step up in grade and the presence of several other very speedy front runners will surely count against her.

In short, if she wins I'm prepared to lose, but there are other interesting angles in this £44,000 dash. Green Manalishi boasts a fine record here and, given he is well drawn and hails from the bang-in-form Kevin Ryan yard, another bold effort looks very likely.

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1. dave watson | 14 July 2008

   I thought it might be interesting to give some background to one of Saturday's results at Chester...the 4.45 2m handicap. It was interesting inasmuch as I own the eventual winner, Keelung, and the hype surrounding the horse following its facile win 2 days before at Warwick seemed to throw all logic to the wind. Based on speed rating, adjusted for ground, distance and handicap rating the horse seemed to be as close to a good thing as you could get and was backed accordingly. However, it's worth considering the other factors, which I am sure you could apply to far better races than Saturday's:
   1. The horse finished so far in front at Warwick, that my immediate reaction was to run quickly before we go shooting up in the ratings....not always the wisest thing to do.
   2. The horse next day was ok, but looked not quite 100%, fairly understandably. He looked like he'd been busy the day before.
   3. Come Saturday however he looked fine and fresh so it was off to Chester.
   4. Keelung has only won on Heavy and Soft and he's been very obviously fired so I was praying for rain at Chester. Chester started out at GS/G in places, but a drying wind and warm sun throughout Saturday changed the going right through to Good...indeed by the time of the later races it was only just good in my opinion.
   5. Did that stop the world piling into the horse?No. He continued to shorten back to Evens, even though the warnings were there....drying ground,short time between races, owner obviously heading for a day out at Chester etc etc!

   All the above just says to me to take into account every factor possible before backing and the "owner" factor is something to consider....
   The info on me, Keelung, the favoured ground, the track, the time betwen races is all common knowledge, but in my opinion changed him totally as a betting proposition post Warwick.

   As it happens of course, he battled back incredibly bravely to win the race in a Photo, but I for one could not back him on all the above!

   Dave
   

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