Events / Graham Cunningham / 05 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham in depth on this weekend's big jumps action - the Tingle Creek and Fighting Fifth - with thoughts on the Betfair-Ascot alliance and Kieren Fallon's return too.

Master Minded to have all the answers in the Tingle Creek

Logic dictates that this is the weekend for Paul Nicholls to strike back.

Paddy Power day at Cheltenham ended in frustration for the champion trainer, while Hennessy day at Newbury provided further stress as Big Buck's and Sam Thomas parted company at the last.

But Nicholls is highly likely to win Saturday's Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown for the simple reason that, in Master Minded, he has a supreme two mile chaser.

Some people feel Tidal Bay has the potential to upset Master Minded but, for all that Howard Johnson's gelding was a cracking novice last season, even his best form will leave him toiling in second if the favourite brings his A-game.

That A-game is highlighted by a truly stellar performance in Cheltenham's Champion Chase in which Master Minded powered 19 lengths clear of the high-class Voy Por Ustedes and defeat behind the same horse at Aintree can surely be put down to the effects of an extra half mile and a jarring blunder two out.

In short, Master Minded looks tailor made for this test. German raider Fiepes Shuffle is a brazen front runner who could trade much shorter than his starting price in-running, while Mahogany Blaze and L'Antartique simply don't look quick enough to figure on these terms, barring carnage.

Last year's winner Twist Magic is hard to fancy for a repeat after a tame effort at Exeter on his reappearance, which leaves us with Tidal Bay and Takeroc.

Tidal Bay beat Takeroc by six lengths at Aintree in April, but the latter could be the surprise packet here given that his quick jumping looks ideal for Sandown.

But whether he will jump swiftly enough to trouble Master Minded is another matter. The best two miler since Moscow Flyer is currently a shade over [1.6] on Betfair. He's liable to be a fair bit shorter once McCoy lets him loose on the final bend.


Sublimity the value to take his revenge on Punjabi at Wetherby

If he was a good bet last week, then he's probably still a good bet this week.

Come to think of it, Sublimity's prospects of turning Punjabi over in the rearranged Fighting Fifth Hurdle (1.50) are probably brighter at Wetherby than they were at the original venue of Newcastle.

The fact that fellow Irish raider Harchibald doesn't line up clearly helps his cause, if not his price, and the suspicion remains that he is much better than he showed when beaten twice by Punjabi last spring.

Soft ground blunted Sublimity's speed in the Champion Hurdle. The emphasis on stamina saw Punjabi finish a length ahead at Cheltenham, while the gap stretched to three lengths when Philip Carberry gave Sublimity too much to do at Punchestown.

But this time there should be no room for excuses. Wetherby's fast two miles will place the emphasis firmly on speed and that is perfect for Sublimity. At [3.7] or thereabouts he looks very fair value indeed.


Stars and bars the priority as Betfair and Ascot join forces

For once, a major news story didn't leak out in the slightest.

But now the news that Betfair are to make the King George a central plank in their race sponsorship has been released, it's time to consider options on and off the track.

First, it is essential that the issue of how to attract leading three-year-olds and foreign horses to Ascot's summer showpiece should be addressed.

A dangerous trend seems to have developed whereby connections of some top horses feel a hard race at Ascot in high summer hinders prospects of landing major autumn prizes.

The theory is badly flawed, as Dylan Thomas and Youmzain have shown, but Betfair and Ascot need to reduce its impact with an imaginative bonus scheme designed to give the King George the magnetic pull it used to exert.

And second, it's clear that Betfair now have a golden opportunity to ensure exchange players can handle their business as efficiently at the track as they can from home.

Granted, it's long been possible to trade via mobile phone, but a dedicated lounge with terminals, fast pictures and suitable refreshments at the course itself would surely help stem the growing tide of punters who trade solely from home nowadays.

With Ascot's help, Betfair can restore Britain's greatest all-aged race to former glories. And with Betfair's help, punters who have reduced the number of days they go racing massively in recent years might just be tempted back to Ascot again.


Roy leaves the Sunderland throne...but can Kieren really be king again?

Something about Kieren Fallon has always reminded me of Roy Keane.

Perhaps it's that slow, knowing smile they share. Perhaps it's those probing eyes. Or maybe it's the sense that both men are never too far from doing something completely unexpected.

Either way, as Keane departs the Sunderland stage Fallon is preparing for his return to racing in September and told Friday's Racing Post that he is determined to come back better than ever and become champion jockey again in 2010.

Whether Fallon is wise to make such comments is another matter. Football insiders are adamant that Keane was hindered by wearing his heart on his sleeve to the media and Fallon is equally culpable in this respect.

As ever, Fallon is determined to return from his latest drug ban with a clean slate. And as ever, he puts his own revisionist spin on what has gone before.

Bizarrely, he insists he "never lost" his title. That may come as news to Frankie Dettori, who prevailed after a long battle in 2004, and Fallon is surely being highly optimistic if he feels he can ride 200 winners in a season again.

The big yards have moved on in his absence and the other riders who have returned after involvement with corruption cases have, by and large, found it hard to reach their former levels.

Granted, Kieren Fallon isn't like those other riders. But, like that man Keane, his future is still far from certain.

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