Tingle Creek Betting: With McCoy in the mount Smith's chaser can show Mastery

Events / Wayne Bailey / 03 December 2008 / 1 Comments

Wayne Bailey on Saturday's Tingle Creek Chase where Master Minded will go off the heavily odds-on favourite.

It's been a difficult few weeks for Sam Thomas, and it's hard not to feel sorry for Paul Nicholls' second jockey right now.

When Ruby Walsh ruptured his spleen at Cheltenham, it was obviously bad news for all involved at Ditcheat. However, every difficulty presents an opportunity and with the Irishman out of action for a while, Sam Thomas stepped forward for his moment in the spotlight.

Kauto Star, Big Buck's, Zacharova, Master Minded - the big names lay in waiting and all he was required to do it seemed, was hold tight and claim each victory. Unfortunately for Thomas, it didn't quite go to plan - and at one of the worst possible times in his career, he hit a bad spell of form and fell off quite a number of high profile horses.

Now, the owner of Master Minded (the highest rated chaser in training no less) Clive Smith, has decided to use the safe hands of Tony McCoy in the Tingle Creek this Saturday, and it must be a hammer blow to Sam Thomas' confidence levels.

"It was a tough decision, but I think it is the right one" Smith said.

"I think it is right for Sam. We need to get him right and he is obviously having a bad time at the moment, but he will get his confidence back.

"We are also doing the right thing by the horse as he is a young horse with great talent. It is just the sensible thing to do"

There have been a lot of harsh words said about Thomas recently online and in print, and the schadenfreude brigade in the press are having a field day. But it's funny how short people's memories can be, and a number of those slating him now were calling him a hero just last March, when Denman carried him to victory on what must have been one of the most pressured Cheltenham festival rides in years.

Perhaps I should be one of those baying for blood (I was unfortunate enough to back Big Buck's and Kauto Star), but give the guy a break. Everyone, without exception, makes mistakes and we must allow for that in all spheres of life. Kauto Star has not sorted out his jumping, but do we even dare blame Nicholls for that? No, it's easier to blame the rider.

Thomas' mistakes came at a pretty bad time I admit, and they certainly cost me money - but that's part of the 'glorious uncertainly of racing' and my Betfair balance, while dented, lives to see another day.

I've no doubt that Thomas will win big races again and while he may not agree, perhaps it's a good thing that he won't be riding Master Minded on Saturday. Just imagine if he messed that one up? No, what he needs now is to get his confidence back with some low pressure rides and work his way back slowly. But we must give him space to do that.

Anyway, that's my two-cents worth (feel free to post your views below), but let's move on to the race itself...

Nicholls has made this race his own, and has won it five times in the past ten years. Master Minded is currently trading at [1.65], but when you consider that he's officially one of the best horses around right now, that price doesn't seem so low. Despite what I said above, McCoy does give the backer extra confidence and the Irishman's experience in the saddle will settle a lot of nerves.

Are there any horses that can take him on? Well, if one can come close it will be Howard Johnson's Tidal Bay - a horse that's never been out of the first two in 15 career starts. The distance will be no problem, nor should the ground, but a place bet is the only sensible option really as Master Minded has a considerable amount of pounds in hand here.

Before Cheltenham, a friend of mine that's close to Ditcheat told me that Master Minded was taking the place by storm, and putting Kauto Star in his place. I'm always reluctant to believe such tips and tales pre-Festival, but the French import has turned out to be the real deal, albeit with an Aintree blemish.

That Aintree loss was more to do with tactics however, and he should put things straight on Saturday. If I was pricing this one up, I'd chalk him in at [1.5]. Therefore, there's no other option but to bank on Master Minded at [1.65] - I kinda feel that Nicholls owes me this one!

Comments (1)

1. brian elliott | 05 December 2008

   Well Wayne interesting comments on the "jocking off" of Sam Thomas, im sure we all know that Kauto Star has never been foot perfect and i think he looked beaten at the time, Sam didnt stand an earthly at Aintree, but i have to say it was one of the most spectacular jumps by a jockey without a horse that i have ever wittnessed.
   
   Heres an interesting fact for readers of this exellent site, as Wayne pointed out Tidal Bay has never finished out of the first two in all of his starts, out of seven over fences he has won six of them the only one he lost was when Mr A P M'coy rode him Dennis O'regan has rode all his wins.

   I myself think it will be a lot closer than you think and if there are any chinks in Master Minded's armour then Tidal Bay will be there.
   
   I think Tidal bay will probably be the nearest we are likely to get to our old friend Desert Orchid in that he can compete at any distance, i believe he could be a genuine gold cup contender next year, id love to see him run in the King George on Boxing day. thanks for reading this and good luck to everybody. Brian