Events / Simon Rowlands / 10 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Simon Rowlands points out where British racing could learn from The Breeders' Cup, puts up a rock-solid proposition for The Paddy Power Gold Cup and ante-post for the RSA Chase, and has no explanation for the defeat of One Way Or Another.

In the Paddy Power Gold Cup, the correlation between chase starts (the fewer the better) and performance has been remarkably strong in this event in recent years.

I ended up about level on The Breeders' Cup, finding losers much easier to come by than winners (my selections were posted last week) but turning that to my advantage by laying a few of the former. It is easy to forget just how limited the betting options were before Betfair came along!

As an event, The 2009 Breeders' Cup has to be considered a success, for all that there is still room for improvement. In particular, it needs to attract more horses from far afield - places like Hong Kong, Australia, South Africa and South America - if it really wants to be thought of as racing's "World Championships", rather than just racing's version of The Ryder Cup, entertaining though the latter is.

I watched most of the action on Attheraces, and enjoyed the blend of knowledge and humour on the whole. The post-race statement that "Mastercraftsman had no excuses" was a rare lapse (he lost his balance as Murtagh switched him to the rail then had little room), and I would like to think - but rather doubt it - that the commentators would have been every bit as critical of the ride on Zensational if it had taken place under a British jockey on home soil.

Zenyatta was undoubtedly the star of the show, exuding class and charisma before and during the Breeders' Cup Classic in a way I have seldom seen. Fortunately, due to the racing authorities and broadcasters in the US believing that the customer should be well-informed in a way that simply isn't the case in Britain, it was also possible to put hard figures on how the unbeaten filly went about winning, both as the race was unfolding and in more detail after it.

Sectionals are freely available for this race on the Equibase site, from which it can be deduced that, following the slowest opening 2f sectional of all (26.67 sec on the back of a 50-feet run-up), Zenyatta ran each of the following 2f sectionals quicker than any of her rivals, in: 23.33 sec; 23.35 sec; 23.92 sec; and 23.35 sec respectively. Her "Arazi-like" move after the back straight was actually the slowest of these but came on the home bend and with those up front beginning to flag.

The absence of sectionals in Britain is a black mark against racing here, but it is still possible (if laborious) to gather your own and to profit from that unique information. This is a subject to which I intend returning in coming weeks.

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Attention this weekend turns to top jumps action at Cheltenham, where the £150,000-added Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase is the centrepiece on Saturday.

Twenty-six runners have been entered at the five-day stage, and the Betfair market has it [7.0] the field. Finding a winner is not going to be easy, but I suggest you include Tranquil Sea (currently [10.0] to back) in any calculations you make.

This is a horse who beat Fiveforthree and Trafford Lad in a Grade 1 novice hurdle last year and who promises to be even better over fences, following a Grade 3 victory the other day. But perhaps the most impressive statistic in Tranquil Sea's favour is the current form of the Edward O'Grady yard, which is operating at an astonishing 81% of rivals beaten this month and which has turned out 18 winners from just 50 runners since October 1.

There is also the record of lightly raced chasers in this race to consider. Tranquil Sea has had just six starts over larger obstacles to date (he is one of several in the field of which that is true), and horses that have had six or fewer such runs have beaten an impressive 63.58% of rivals in the race so far this century. Indeed, the correlation between chase starts (the fewer the better) and performance has been remarkably strong in this event in recent years.

Tranquil Sea is fully 9 lb higher than when beaten at the latest Cheltenham festival, but he is potentially much better than that effort and looks to have a rock-solid chance of running well and possibly of winning. My recommendation (with last week's staking in mind) is to have 1 pt win and 2 pts place on him.

Incidentally, if you are not already on Long Run for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham in March (as advised here previously) then I suggest you take a quick look at his win at Auteuil at the weekend and get involved. His form is already good enough to win an average running of the race and he will soon be transferred to Nicky Henderson's yard. He is available at [15.0] but should really be in single figures, in my opinion.

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My horse One Way Or Another was only 13th at Doncaster on Saturday, though that was his first truly disappointing run of a campaign in which he has done us proud. He may have a run on polytrack in the coming weeks - he has always worked like a dream on artificial surfaces - or be put away until next year. I quite fancy having a go at the Lincoln Handicap with him.

Tags: Lincoln Handicap, Long Run, Mastercraftsman, One Way Or Another, Paddy Power Gold Cup, The Breeders' Cup, Tranquil Sea, Zensational, Zenyatta