Events / Editor / 23 July 2008 /

Aidan O'Brien's horse may be the big favourite but The Contrarian reckons his Ascot hopes could be toast.

Earlier this year, while you were selling your house in order to load the proceeds onto Kauto Star to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup, The Contrarian was kind enough to warn you against such a foolhardy move. Did you listen? No. So now that your car is your principal residence, here's another piece of prime Contrarian advice: avoid Duke of Marmalade in this Saturday's King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot.

Yes, the favourite has romped home in each of the last four years, and yes, on all four occasions the winner has been a four-year-old, but The Contrarian knows an impostor when he sees one, and this Duke is not the real thing.

The odds are against Murtagh and O'Brien

Jockey Johnny Murtagh and trainer Aidan O'Brien combined to produce last year's winner Dylan Thomas. However, only four trainers - Noel Murless, Maurice Zilber, Dick Hern and Saeed bin Suroor - have won back-to-back since the race's inception in 1951. Murtagh is also up against it because only four jockeys have won the race back-to-back - Lester Piggott (twice), Willie Carson, Frankie Dettori and Michael Kinane. Only twice has a jockey-trainer combo been successful in consecutive years - those being Carson/Hern and Dettori/bin Suroor.

There are doubts over his staying power

Duke of Marmalade has never raced over 1m 4f before so there are doubts over whether he will last the distance. Even Johnny Murtagh, who has ridden the horse to victory three times, is unconvinced he can deliver in a longer race. He said: "As this will be his first run over a mile-and-a-half, we don't know for certain that he will stay." Aidan O'Brien also urged caution by saying: "We are very happy with him, but it is his first time over the trip so we don't really know what will happen when he enters the final two furlongs." Hardly the bold, "Nothing can stop us" statements you might expect for a 1.99 favourite.

Previous success over 1m 4f is vital

Ten of the last eleven winners of the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes had already been victorious over 1m 4f prior to competing. The one horse over that hadn't - Azamour in 2005 - won when the race was held at Newbury rather than Royal Ascot, which means that of the last ten times the race was held at Ascot, the winner had already won over the distance without exception. Of the six frontrunners in the betting, Duke of Marmalade is the only one without a win over the distance to his name.

The Prince of Wales Stakes is not a good indicator

Duke of Marmalade's biggest win to date came in last month's 1m 2f Prince of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot but only once in the last 19 years has the winner of the Prince of Wales Stakes gone on to win the King George VI and that was Azamour in 2005 - when neither race was held at Ascot.

Question marks surround preparation

After last month's victory in the Prince of Wales, Murtagh revealed: "Aidan has trained him for this race all year. He has brought him along slowly and today was the big target." Which begs the question that if all the training prior to June 18 was focussed on priming Duke of Marmalade to win the PoW and it took that long to ensure everything was in place to win there, is 38 days really enough time to prepare a horse to conquer a new distance?

His win-to-race ratio is unspectacular

The last eight winners of the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes have all had win-to-race percentages of 40% or more prior to the race: Montjeu (100%), Galileo (100%), Golan (43%), Alamshar (67%), Doyen (40%), Azamour (56%), Hurricane Run (75%) and Dylan Thomas (50%). With four wins from 12 starts, Duke of Marmalade's win ratio is only 33%.

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