Newmarket July Festival: Final day betting by Graham Cunningham

Events / Graham Cunningham / 09 July 2009 / Leave a Comment

The Aussies are fighting back manfully in the first Ashes test at Cardiff, but how will they get on when the explosive Scenic Blast bids to follow up his impressive Royal Ascot win in the July Cup? Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham assesses Europe's best six furlong sprint plus the best of the rest of the action on the last day of Newmarket's July Meeting.

1.30
No strong views here in a race which depends to a fair degree on how well Crackdown has taken his tough race at Sandown last Saturday.

He ran a cracker to be pipped by the progressive Acrostic there - and his stablemate Roman Republic franked the form with a fine effort here on Wednesday - but he got warm and raced very freely early on in front there and a similar display this time might just see him vulnerable late on.

Do I want to lay him at [5.0] or bigger in the hope that he will blow out? Probably not. But do I want to back him in a race featuring serious dangers like Mohtashem, Kyllachy Star and Brief Encounter? On balance, no I don't.


2.00
Now and again you look at a price on Betfair and think "that's very tight."

And that's what I thought as soon as I saw Emperor Claudius trading at under 2-1 to make up for his narrow defeat in the Chesham at Royal Ascot.

Granted, Aidan O'Brien's colt was a shade unlucky in that he was squeezed out at the start there, but he took a good while to find top gear and I doubt I would be tempted even if he drifted out to [3.0] or thereabouts.

Chesham winner Big Audio is plainly entitled to go close again, while Lucky General was very impressive at Windsor, but the two who catch the eye most are No Hubris and Lord Zenith.

No Hubris faded in the Coventry at Royal Ascot but travelled strongly enough for long enough to suggest he's well worth another chance, while Lord Zenith takes a marked step up in class but looked a very smart prospect in bolting up at Salisbury.


2.35
Good luck if you are taking a swing at this headscratcher.

I'll keep it brief and say the gambled-on Captain Brilliance falls into the "don't back, don't lay" category after his impressive course win. Jeremy Noseda's runner is way less exposed than most, but he's priced accordingly and stall one is a slight concern.

Redford is my idea of an intriguing back to lay candidate after his eyecatching performance at Royal Ascot. He travelled extremely well there and could trade very short if on his game again, but Plum Pudding and Giganticus both appeal as potential place lay candidates.

Plum Pudding is an admirable front runner but he will have to go hard from a long way out here and a career high mark of 105 will probably see him falter up the hill.

Giganticus is in tremendous heart after an emphatic Ascot success, but he's much worse off with Redford and Mutheeb this time and a 7lb hike looks set to kybosh him.


3.10
Last weekend it seemed so simple, with all set fair for Scenic Blast to repeat his hugely impressive Royal Ascot success, but things are a fair bit different now.

First, Paco Boy has been declared (though he may yet be scratched if the ground is quick) and the draw has placed the market leaders out on the wing in stalls 1 and 2.

All in all, recent developments have left me wondering if one or two of the bigger priced runners are worth a second look.

I'm still not convinced by Art Connoisseur despite his Golden Jubilee success, especially as Jamie might set him a lot to do, but Fleeting Spirit and J J The Jet Plane both command respect at double figure odds.

Fleeting Spirit was beaten fair and square by Scenic Blast in the King's Stand, but she finished clear of the rest and looks overpriced at [12.0] or bigger overnight.

J J The Jet Plane plainly didn't fire in the Golden Jubilee but is surely much better than that run suggests, while Ancien Regime offers a little mileage at massive odds if the market leaders find that wide draw more of an obstacle than the market suggests they will.