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Saturday's Horseracing: One eye on the Betfair markets, the other on the weather forecast

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When Betfair have "will racing go ahead" markets up for Flat meetings in early September you know the climate really has gone barmy. Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham keeps his eye on the forecasts and the form book ahead of a stellar weekend when the weather will help shape the markets on both sides of the Irish Sea.

Friday 9.45am:

Haydock is a ten minute hop down the M6 from where I live and clerk of the course Kirkland Tellwright says "measured optimism is the continuing message" ahead of Saturday's Betfred Sprint Cup card. So how come you can back racing to go ahead at [3.0] on Betfair? I look outside my office window and the rain is settling in for what looks a long innings. Kirkland says it would be "a bore" if more than 20mm of rain falls. He looks set for a very boring day.

10am:

Leopardstown manager Tom Burke says there is "the chance of an odd shower" on Friday morning. But the forecast I am looking at says there is a hundred per cent chance of rain for most of the day. You can back racing to go ahead at [1.14] on Betfair. More promising than Haydock, but will Duke Of Marmalade be allowed his rematch with New Approach in the Irish Champion Stakes if it turns heavy?

10.45am

Thank goodness for the all weather is what you are meant to say at times like this. The prospect of rerouting from Haydock to Kempton for Saturday's RUK broadcast isn't one that makes the heart sing, but the card is a strong one and Many Volumes and Galactic Star look the key players in the September Stakes at 2.50. The fact that Galactic Star makes his AW debut doesn't concern me as much as the fact that he tends to be given plenty to do nowadays.

The patient tactics shouldn't stop him running well, but Many Volumes looks a shade more straightforward tactically. He plainly relishes this surface, too, and a repeat of the form he showed to bolt up here last month will take him very close again. Incidentally, drizzle persists here in the north west and Kirkland has rejoined the real world to call a Saturday 7am inspection for Haydock. He says it is precautionary. Betfair's market - with racing to go ahead now available at [3.75] - suggests otherwise.

11.30am

PA SPORT report that a 7pm inspection has been called for Thirsk's Saturday fixture and that officials would like to take an earlier look if they could round up a suitable steward to give the yea or nay. A question occurs. Why isn't the word of the clerk of the course good enough to say whether a course is fit to race?

It's still drizzling here and RUK colleague Lydia Hislop is wondering whether her place on a 7.45am flight from London to Manchester tomorrow morning will be needed. I suspect it won't and agree to attend Haydock's inspection then ring her to tell her whether to board or abort the journey. You can now have £40 at [3.85] for Haydock to go ahead. I'm not tempted.

12.15pm:

Forget the weather and focus on Kempton's Sirenia Stakes at 2.20. Rightly or wrongly, I have one clear positive and a couple of negatives. Elnawin is the positive based on an emphatic success in a valuable Newmarket Sales race where he tanked along before forging clear of his smart stablemate Bonnie Charlie. His sire Elnadim boasts a solid all weather record and Elnawin looks the sort to give it another boost.

Deposer and Zezao are the two negatives. Both have plenty of ability, but Deposer pulled much too hard in the Mill Reef and Zezao also looked far from straightforward despite staying on strongly at Ripon recently. Others will probably see them the same way but, all the same, I will probably look to take them both on in the place market. By the way, that £40 at [3.85] still hasn't gone. And [1.15 ]is the best price about the card falling to the weather.

12.45pm:

No sign of a break in the weather and, hand on heart, I have a sinking feeling about Haydock and a suspicion that Aidan O'Brien might end up pulling Duke Of Marmalade out of the Irish Champion Stakes.

Still, you never know what might happen and, just in case it does go ahead, it's worth turning the spotlight on the Betfred Sprint Cup. In short, it's an odd contest, with several big names absent, and even if it does go ahead it will probably turn into the sort of slugging match which very few horses can cope with.

Timeform have Utmost Respect top rated and, although Richard Fahey is reportedly bemused to see him trading as favourite, his ability to handle deep ground will be a priceless asset. French raider African Rose also handles the mud and beat Utmost Respect fair and square at Deauville last time, while Corrybrough has been beaten twice in lesser company of late but remains a potential improver.

Those who have taken fancy odds about Reverence repeating his 2006 win in this race will welcome every drop of rain that has fallen, but you can have too much of a good thing. And the rain is still falling.

1.30pm:

Back to trusty Kempton with its predictable Polytrack surface and assorted complex handicaps headed by the £50,000 London Mile Final at 3.25. Keep a close eye on RUK or Channel 4 to see how Premio Loco behaves in the preliminaries. He can sweat and get very excitable, but he bolted up here last time and his turn of foot is a potent asset.

I'm less keen on Rochefort, who had his own way at Newmarket and is now 8lb higher than when beaten here in his qualifier, while Cape Hawk has the 2 box and a moderate run at Ascot to overcome but does handle this track extremely well.

The Fifth Member and Ebn Malk are both very reliable and highly effective under these conditions, but all in all I suspect that my interest here will revolve around siding with Premio Loco and Cape Hawk and against Rochefort.

1.50pm:

More bad news. Catterick's Friday card is under threat from the storms and the rain at Haydock shows no sign of abating. My good friend and trusty builder Paul Roberts has just popped his head into my office to say that "if Haydock race tomorrow I will show my backside at the top of King St in Wigan." Sadly, I think the unsuspecting Saturday morning shoppers are safe on this occasion.