Royal Ascot Betting: The two-year-olds to watch...

Royal Ascot / Peter May / 09 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

Ratings expert Peter May considers the fillies and colts who could land the feature races at the forthcoming meeting.

At the time when Willie Carson was riding horses such as Longboat for Major Hern, and Steve Cauthen partnered the likes of Bonhomie for Henry Cecil, Royal Ascot was the Flat meeting I looked forward to more than any other. Not for the pageantry and the silly hats, but for the races which were always of the highest quality and mostly non-handicaps.

Over the years, though, the Royal extravaganza was demoted to second best behind Newmarket's July meeting. This was not because the quality of the races staged at Ascot had diminished, but rather the way my betting changed. My focus gradually switched to two-year-old races and there was no better place to see future juvenile winners than at Newmarket.

I distinctly remember watching Alhaarth beating Mark Of Esteem in what was probably the best maiden race of the year, and witnessing Bahamian Bounty, Bahhare and Danehill Dancer making their debuts before winning race after race during the course of the season.

However, my most vivid memory was the day I invited to watch the Cherry Hinton Stakes race from the Judge's box. Unfortunately my £250 bet on Peter Chapple-Hyam's Myself was lost, but I certainly could not complain about the view I had of Red Carnival scoring for Michael Stoute.

More recently it has been the end of season Newmarket meetings which have attracted my attention most. Changes to the juvenile race programme have significantly reduced the number of two-year-old races held in the early part of the season, and as a result these events do not, in general, feature horses of the standard they once did.

However, this year seems to be bucking the trend, and there have been several high quality performances by juveniles already.

Top of the list must be Monsieur Chevalier's run in the National Stakes at Sandown last month (pictured). He had already posted a 93 on my figures when winning a conditions race at Newmarket, but at the Esher track he improved on this rating to record a 99.

To put this figure into context, last year's top-rated juvenile, Crowded House, was awarded a 105 at the end of the season, and in 2007 Raven's Pass was accredited with the same mark. For a horse to run to a 99 this early in the year means he is very advanced.

Apparently the Chevalier colt will be aimed at the Norfolk Stakes at the Royal meeting, and if he runs near to his best then surely that would be good enough to take this race which, in the recent past, has been won by horses recording ratings in the high 80s.

Red Jazz is another colt that seems to be well forward for the time of year. His best rating, the 92 he ran to at Ascot when beating subsequent winners Archers Road, Little Perisher and Fratellino, gives him an excellent chance in the Coventry Stakes where the sixth furlong should bring about further improvement.

Aidan O'Brien has won the Coventry Stakes with Henrythenavigator, Statute Of Liberty, Landseer, Fasliyev, and Harbour Master in recent years, so his runner, Steinbeck, needs to be considered carefully. The Footstepsinthesand colt has raced just once, but was a comfortable winner and not fully extended, so his rating of 79 probably understates his true ability. He has plenty of scope to improve further and increase his rating to a figure in the 90s which would make him the main threat to Red Jazz along with Canford Cliffs who was also impressive on his debut.

The fillies appear, based on the ratings at least, to be just a modest bunch. However Mark Johnston's Capercaillie has an 82 to her name and would be an interesting runner in the Queen Mary Stakes. And Aidan O'Brien's Lillie Langtry has the potential to run well at Ascot without having posted an exceptional figure to date.