Royal Ascot Betting / Robin Keck / 17 June 2009 / Leave a comment

Robin Keck found a winner! But if a top trainer can't work out which is his best horse it's no wonder this game is so hard.

When Tadhg O'Shea rode Ouqba to win the opener, the international flavour of Royal Ascot really hit home. I've considered all the difference ways of pronouncing Tadhg but am a massive price to get it right (a bit bigger on Betfair) but all that matters is that I didn't find this winner making it seven Royal Ascot losing bets on the trot.

If Barry and Richard Hills didn't know this was their best then how should I know? I've been thinking this issue over for some time. Can a top class trainer really distinguish between the relative strengths of their horses within a few pounds? As Ouqba came from last and Infiraad raced more prominently it would be difficult to recreate this scenario on the gallops. I go mad every year having this conversation at Cheltenham when Ruby rides Kauto Star over Denman etc and my instinct is that the market generally over compensates for jockey choice.

I'm going to run the stats on apparent second or third string horses and their level stake performances... better still I'll get someone clever to do that (step up Simon Rowlands?) and I'll read their column.

After losing less on the first race than I did the day before I knew this was going to be a magical day and so it proved in the second when I had my best race of the meeting. Before I pop the cork it was because I was too confused to find a bet which was lucky as I wouldn't have found Spacious. I'm delighted for James Fanshawe though as he is a trainer I've always admired and after a poor first half of the season I'm delighted he's had this Group class winner. Spacious is a very good filly who simply didn't handle Epsom last time and if kept to conventional tracks she should progress from here.

I was intrigued by the support on Jealous Again in the Queen Mary after the American trainer had had a big priced winner yesterday. It was speculative at best but this is some filly and she blew the field apart. STOP PRESS - I BACKED A WINNER!!! It was far and away the most impressive victory I've seen for...well since Canford Cliffs won the Coventry yesterday.

Tomorrow is make or break day as I have a strong instinct that Yeats is a race away from a well earned retirement. If he's back to his best he'll win this but his reappearance run was so dismal at Navan that if there is any repeat he'll be stuffed out of the places. He's a confident place lay at [1.46] but if he wins I'll be delighted to watch a true staying champion do his stuff. It's a spectacle I'll need to watch from the poorhouse so hope they have a decent telly.