Royal Ascot Betting / Robin Keck / 20 June 2009 / Leave a comment

Robin Keck asks a question that isn't meant to be rhetorical and looks back at Friday's action, reflecting on the lessons to be learned....

I've been reflecting on the week's racing and from a personal perspective, trying to work out why my punting is consistently more successful at minor tracks than at top class festivals like Royal Ascot.

The riddle is always the same in having a list of variables that you have to apply some relative weighting of importance to but the ability to do that successfully is that much harder. I'm fascinated to know how other people feel about this issue and perhaps my lack of knowledge of breeding underpins the problem.

Aegean was a great case in point in the opener, having won two dirt races in the States before his debut on the turf. I had no idea whatsoever whether he would handle it but did know the trainer was in form and one of Aegean's dirt victims (Jealous Again) had won impressively earlier in the week.

How does a punter calculate the probability of this horse winning or being placed? For once I got the answer right as I instinctively felt that the place lay at around [2.0] was the call and the market had over reacted to the trainers form and bullish comments. This isn't a rhetorical question...do respond at the bottom of the column if you did some effective analysis on this horse and were able to determine a tissue price.

My only other strong view for the day (I'm getting more selective as the poorhouse doesn't show every race) was that both the Guineas races were particularly strong this year and that Ghanaati would win the Coronation Stakes. I never thought these words would be spoken by me but I've eaten humble pie about my views on Richard Hills in the past. I'll be concise. He used to be much maligned but still over-rated in the market but is now under-rated and is having a terrific season. I know Daddy's stable is doing extremely well this year but he just seems like a different jockey and whilst even I may have got Ghanaati safely home in front today, he did everything right and won easily.

I had spent most of the day thinking Rainbow View was the call but changed my mind as the ground seemed too similar to his Guineas flop. On easier ground at this trip I still believe the horse could be something special and he ran on very well after meeting trouble to finish a good third.

Just one day to go and I'm one nice winner away from getting out of here. Has anyone heard any whispers?