Punchestown Festival Betting / Wayne Bailey / 21 April 2008 / 1

Wayne Bailey has scrutinised the form and the odds from Tuesday's Punchestown card. Here are his selections for the first day...

Last week, I had an early look at the Festival entries and pinpointed some likely candidates, but with just one day to go we can finally nail down those bets. The first tip I wish to give is not for a horse. It relates to your betting bank - that is, the sum of money you've set aside for Punchestown.

Take is easy on day one.

When any racing festival comes along, we are usually full of excitement, enthusiasm and hope. We want to get off to a good start, and invariably stake much more than we should, expecting to make some back anyway. Often, we wake up on day two, with bruised egos and a lower Betfair balance to boot. I'm not trying to dampen enthusiasm, but just bear in mind that this is a five-day war, not a one-day battle!

That said, I'm particularly excited about the opening day and hope to get off to a good start with some bets that I believe offer great value:

The main race of the day is the Kerrygold Champion Chase (3:40), and it's highly significant that Paul Nicholls had decided to let Twist Magic remain in this race rather than sending him to Sandown. He poses a huge threat to spoil my day, but I just can't seem to warm to him, and don't believe the hype. Until December, this horse could do no wrong and I would have been afraid of my life to click the lay button next to his name, but he was found out at Cheltenham this year.

To me, there is a big question mark over his stamina, and Punchestown is not the course for horses with issues in that department. Laying any Nicholls horse can prove costly, but I'm sticking to my guns and clicking the pink button, mainly because I believe he'll be found wanting in the final two furlongs.

The blue back button however, will be clicked for my original choice for this race Schindlers Hunt. As I mentioned before, he failed to impress at Cheltenham and Aintree, but like Beef or Salmon, he's not a horse that travels across the sea well, and always performs much better here in Ireland. His win last time out was impressive, and he should be able to take these on. Mansony is a horse I've always kept a close eye on, and he'll carry my money in the place market.

The vcbet.com Champion Novice Hurdle looks like a cracker of a race at 3:05. Jered won a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse last time out with relative ease, and although the ground may be a bit on the soft side, I believe that Meade has a very serious animal on his hands. He's won four of his eight starts, and he's proven that he can handle this difficult course by winning here on two occasions. The distance is also ideal, and I think he offers terrific value.

The two Cheltenham winners, Fiveforthree and Captain Cee Bee, should put up a very strong challenge and I've decided to keep the former on my side in the place market. No doubt the price will be short, but it's not a race to shy away from the top end of the market with six favourites winning this contest in the past ten years, and the other four placed.

There's another Grade One race at 4:50; the Ellier Developments Champion Novice Chase, and this is proving to be a tricky puzzle with quite a few capable of winning. I've narrowed it down to five, namely Air Force One, Finger Onthe Pulse, Notre Pere, Sky's The Limit and Fred's Benefit. There's no point in sitting on the fence however, so Fred's Benefit gets the vote. Willie Mullins has been firing on all cylinders this season, and he has a great knack of finding the right races for his horses. A few wins at Punchestown can see him take the Irish trainer championship from the hands of Noel Meade, last years' winner.

Last week, I mentioned that Colm Murphy's horses simply must be followed in bumpers here. It's a small sample, but he has a cracking win rate of 42% in such races here. He has a horse in each of the two bumpers on day one, and both will carry my money. The first is Captain Bondi at 5:25, and in the Pro-Am race, Abhainn Ri can finish off the last race of the day in style.

Selections:

3.05 - Back Jered to win. Back Fiveforthree to be placed.

3.40 - Back Schindlers Hunt to win, lay Twist Magic. In the place market, back Mansony.

4.50 - Back Fred's Benefit to win.

5.25 - Back Captain Bondi to win.

6:00 - Back Abhainn Ri to win.

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1. Wayne Bailey | 22 April 2008

   Note:

   Fred's Benefit is a N/R at 4.50, so my money is going on to Air Force One, who should run another big race.

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