Punchestown Festival Betting / Johnny Ward / 22 April 2008 /

Johnny Ward breaks down the form in what will be one of the Punchestown Festival's feature events

As with Tuesday's Champion Chase, Wednesday's Guinness Gold Cup is poorer for the absence of the two best horses in its category; nevertheless, it is a captivating affair for core racing and more spiritual reasons.

Beef Or Salmon will not know as he faces the tapes that it will be for the final time. Nor will stablemate Mossbank appreciate the significance of potential victory: the end of one reign and, in almost dynastic fashion, the commencement of a new one.

'Beef', realistically, has no chance in this race, unless the ground went from verging on quick to bottomless in 24 hours. In his prime, good ground was no deterrent; as he got older, however, he struggled to travel with any fluency in his races as he steadily lost his cruising speed. His odds of [25.0] are probably shorter than they should be, yet Timmy Murphy's presence on the old boy would have those that place their faith in a script-inspired result feeling even more inspired.

Mossbank has settled as I write at the [4.0] mark on Betfair, which I would consider roughly a correct price. Davy Russell was insistent after the Ryanair that he had ridden the horse to finish in the best possible place: second. Subsequent Aintree events added weight to his remarks, and I would be very wary of disagreeing with Russell, who is a very shrewd judge and to whom bullshit is anathema.

Mossbank ought to be better over Wednesday's extended three miles. On a strict interpretation of his Lexus run, when contrasted to the bare Gold Cup form, he is surely over-priced in the match-bet with Neptune Collonges, who in my mind is one of the lays of the week at around [2.46].

I accept that Denman is better than his Lexus effort, when there was no real pace on in what proved a futile - if nonetheless worthwhile - bid to beat the monster by tactics. His Gold Cup performance was much closer to his true ability, and in that sense Neptune Collonges did run an extremely creditable race to be third, beaten seven lengths and only a blade of grass behind Kauto Star.

Neptune Collonges is basically an out-and-out stayer: headed in the Gold Cup, he kept plugging on and would have beaten Kauto Star over another few yards. I can definitely see him being done for speed here after the turn-in.

Mossbank is the prime candidate to do so, but I prefer at the odds ([16.0]) to side with the very classy Mister Top Notch, who was bought at one time for 600 quid. His trainer, Davy Fitzgerald, amounts to one of Irish racing's most colourful men: initially reticent, or so it would seem, when you do a telephone interview with him, he soon will be in a spell of ad-lib and the challenge for interviewer is eventually how to terminate the call.

Mister Top Notch was not at his best when just edged out for third in the Irish Hennessy, but he showed a taking cruising pace to win over hurdles on two occasions this season, latterly over two miles. He stays very well, is in great form and has the benefit of Paul Carberry. In my mind, his style will suit the horse much better than Barry Geraghty after the retirement of Conor O'Dwyer.

Kicking King cannot be ruled out, and would be the next-best in the popular winner stakes after Beef Or Salmon. I would consider him a more talented horse than Neptune Collonges, but it is over two years since we saw him live up to that belief. What a joy it would be if he were to return to his old brilliance and emulate his 2005 triumph in this race.

Thankfully, the other four runners - of whom, perhaps, New Alco is most interesting - help to ensure three each-way places. Tactics will be key, and it would be no surprise to see Neptune Collonges making the pace. Furthermore, will Ruby Walsh go steady or hard? While it is not the best Gold Cup we'll ever see, there are so many tantalising feel-good possibilities that is undoubtedly one of the most I've looked forward to.

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