National Hunt is here so thoughts turn to Cheltenham ... where I'll be doing it My Way

Events / Simon Rowlands / 17 October 2007 / Leave a Comment

Racing journalist Simon Rowlands begins his ante-post book on the big one in this week's Rowley File

It has been said that no Flat trainer would quit the game over the winter while he had a classic contender in the yard, and by a similar token I reckon that no self-respecting jumps punter would call it a day while they have a few ante-post bets to tide them through the long nights.

"Ante-post" where jumps racing is concerned primarily means bets on the Cheltenham Festival in March, and Betfair currently has ante-post markets on eight of the races there.

I was never much of a fan of ante-post betting, figuring that it is difficult enough to come up with a good bet on the day of the race itself, but Betfair has changed my attitude to that.

No longer are you forced to suffer the frustration of backing something that then collapses in price while risking having nothing to show for it as you could not lay off your bet or guarantee covering all other possibilities in the race. You can now take out insurance at any stage of proceedings by laying back at the shorter odds.

And you can lay in the first place, not just back, of course, though my advice would be to consider siding against a few horses at one go rather than putting your eggs in a single basket and laying just one. At this stage, only Kauto Star - around 3.5 to defend his crown in the Cheltenham Gold Cup - can be laid at less than 6.0 in the Cheltenham markets.

There are better races to play in than the Gold Cup in my view. I am a big fan of this year's Arkle Chase winner My Way de Solzen (10 to back for the big one), but Kauto Star is the best chaser since Desert Orchid and not to be taken on lightly. There is also the outside possibility that My Way de Solzen will run elsewhere at the Festival: he figures at 14 for the Champion Chase.

That race is a more appealing proposition at this stage for the ante-post player. This year's winner of the two-mile championship, Voy Por Ustedes, is substandard and there to be shot at, while the horse that started a short-priced favourite back in March, Well Chief, has bags of ability but also a brittle constitution (he's managed just three runs in the last 30 months).

The Arkle that My Way de Solzen won was a particularly good one, not least judged on time. It was faster both overall and sectionally than the following day's Champion Chase run on very similar going, and the horse to take from it is one who failed to complete.

Twist Magic looked like making a really good race of it with My Way de Solzen at Cheltenham when falling two out and subsequently beat the Arkle runner-up Fair Along by the same margin of five lengths at Aintree. Despite his fall, he impresses as a sound jumper, and he is young and has the potential to improve for some time yet.

Odds of 6.6 to back for Twist Magic in the Champion Chase seem worth taking: unlike some others, if he gets to Cheltenham in March then there looks to be only one race for him to run in.

My other long-range fancy at this stage is for the Arkle itself. It's more speculative, in that the horse in question has not jumped a fence in public yet, but Osana looks too tempting at 22 to back on Betfair. The David Pipe-trained youngster was not far behind the best novice hurdlers of last season and promises to make even more of an impact over fences.

Plenty of the others prominent in the betting for the Arkle are either likely to be better at further or lack the physique usually associated with a leading chaser. Osana seemed an out-and-out two-miler over hurdles, and Timeform describe him physically as "very much the type to make a chaser".

That's a couple who'll be fuelling my interest in the jumps scene over the coming months, and I hope to dig out a few more in the weeks ahead.

Of more immediate interest is the Champion Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday. For my money, neither Literato nor Multidimensional will be good enough, whereas Creachadoir, who may be, is a doubtful stayer. This trio are at combined odds of about 2.28, so I'll be laying all three and having the rest on my side.