November Handicap Betting: Stats are unkind to favourites so Previs should be taken on

Events / Wayne Bailey / 06 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Bailey has some punting pointers to take into the final race of the Flat season.

It's that time of the year again as we wave goodbye to the Flat season. It's fair to say that it wasn't exactly a vintage year, but we had some good highlights with New Approach, Henrythenavigator, Duke Of Marmalade, Conduit and Look Here all providing some memorable races amongst others.

However, we've one last hurrah at Doncaster on Saturday, the always tricky November Handicap. It's not generally a punter-friendly race, so let's start by looking at some facts and figures in an attempt to sort the wheat from the chaff:

Favourites

The last time a favourite won this race, Coolio was number one in the charts with "Gangsta's Paradise" and Betfair didn't exist. That's right; the year was 1995, and 5/1 favourite Snow Princess won under jockey Richard Hills. Indeed, seven of the past ten winners of this race went off in double figure odds, so don't be afraid to take a chance on an outsider.

Age

I've the Racing and Football Outlook to thank for this stat, but stick with the three and four year-old horses. Five year-olds have won just twice from 100 runners!

Latest Form

It's worth siding with horses that have shown some decent form last time out. Horses that finished in the top four in their last race have provided 93% of the winners from 55% of runners in the past 15 years.

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So then, who's likely to make the frame? At the time of writing, the final declarations are not out yet, so there's quite a few on my list that may not actually run - but at the moment, the early favourite is topweight Previs, who trades around the [5.5] mark. I must admit, the four-year-old was very impressive at Newbury back in September and looks more than capable at this level. However the price is simply too short, especially when you consider the record of the favourite in this contest.

For those looking for some outside value, Mull Of Dubai makes appeal at what is likely to be a very big price (if he actually runs). Punters are bound to be put off by his poor performance at Ascot last month, but it was a race he never settled into, and this six-time winner is a better horse than that race suggests.

Tropical Strait is another horse that's better than his last race suggests, and may be worth a small place bet at a large price.

Tastahil hasn't won a race since September 2006, but he's a fairly consistent colt and can usually be relied upon to give you a run for your money. He's trading around the [15.0] mark, which seems fair all considered.

However, it's Electrolyser that makes the most appeal, and I'm hoping to get a price of [8.0] or thereabouts. He's had four races to date of which he won two, and came second in the others. Both those wins were on soft ground and he's also proven over the trip. Timeform have him up the top of their ratings here, and considering his career performances to date, 8st 7lbs looks quite lean indeed.

Advice:

Main Bet: Back Electrolyser to win and place. Lay Previs at [5.0] or less.
Small stakes outsiders: Back Mull Of Dubai to win and place. Back Tropical Strait to place.