Betfair Official Blog

Noel's Notebook: The Newbury and Newcastle betting considered

Click here to view market

Betfair Radio pundit Noel Bell previews the weekend's action...

The Grade Three Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup is the centrepiece of an action-packed race calendar this weekend. Denman, an Irish bred chestnut gelding by Presenting, could easily trot up and we could all be thinking what a decent price he was at [5] by late afternoon on Saturday. Paul Nicholls has downplayed the chances of Denman in the press but I would not see that as a negative necessarily. The Champion trainer is a supreme realist and may just be checking expectations.

I witnessed a star in the making when he won the Challow hurdle at Cheltenham on New Years Day in 2006 by more than 20 lengths. Paul Nicholls has, however, stated that he would have preferred to have got a prep run into him and that he would need to be foot perfect to defy this BHA rating of 161. There are 21 fences to be jumped and there will be little margin for error.

There are plenty of precedents, however, for horses successfully shouldering top weight for this race. Trabolgan successfully carried 11-12 in 2005 in the hands of Mick Fitzgerald and Peter Scudamore guided Burrough Hill Lad to victory in 1984 under 12st. Indeed, Arkle won this race consecutively in 1964 and 1965 under 12st-7Lbs. Generally speaking, however, the trends demonstrate that the horses that win this race do so carrying less weight. But as Oscar Wilde once said "All generalisations are false including this one".

Denman is a big sturdy gelding and is well capable of carrying a big weight to victory in the hands of Sam Thomas. However, with 12mm of rain forecast to fall before the race I fear that the state of the ground will make it harder for Denman to win.

So what are the alternatives to Denman? Willie Mullins knows all about winning this race, having won with the ill-fated Be My Royal in 2002, and he has laid out Snowy Morning for this race. He will receive 18lb from Denman, and must therefore have a realistic chance of reversing Sun Alliance Chase placing with Denman. This horse is a thorough stayer, loves a cut in the ground and has AP McCoy in the plate. Willie Mullins had a treble at Thurles this week so his horses are in good form.

Ferdie Murphy appears to have the midas touch with his horses at present and New Alco comes into the race on the back of a decent recent win at Carlisle. He will love the ground but will do well, however, to defy a 6lb penalty. Mossbank has improved this year for Michael Hourigan and further progression could see this one make the frame. Knowhere's jumping has improved this season and should run into a place if his jumping holds up in a big field. Remember, Betfair's place market will pay out for the first four home in this handicap race.

The Grade Two totesport.com Long Distance Hurdle is gearing up to be a mouthwatering supporting race on the card. For me the jury is still out on the likely favorite Black Jack Ketchum who has proved inconsistent since losing his unbeaten status in January at Cheltenham. I believe that this horse is worth laying given that you will have plenty of decent types running for you in the form of Kasbah Bliss, Inglis Drever, Blazing Bailey (provided he overcomes a very poor run last time), Special Envoy and Chief Dan George. Punters might wish to back Black Jack Ketchum at bigger prices in-running as insurance.

Poquelin has been entered in the totescoop6 Intermediate Hurdle and I take this Lahint gelding will take all the beating for Paul Nicholls.

The Grade One WBX.Com "Fighting Fifth" Hurdle is the feature at Newcastle on Saturday, a race won last year by Straw Bear. The race is leg one of a bonus series by the sponsors that also includes the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton and the Champion Hurdle. Kribensis, in 1989, is the only horse to have won these three races in the same season. The gutsy and resolute Katchit is the most promising young hurdler around at present and I take this Kalanisi gelding to score against some serious types in the shape of Al Aile, Blythe Knight, Clopf and Harchibald.

I fancy L'Ami for the place market in the listed WBX.com Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle, and his chances will be improved by more rain as he loves soft ground.

The Grade One Ballymore Properties Hattons Grace Hurdle is the feature on a quality card at Fairyhouse on Sunday. Michael Bowe has stated that his Sweet Kiln is in tremendous form and I take this Beneficial mare to outstay her rivals to continue the fabulous family record in this race. Michael's father, James, sent out Limestone Lad to win this race in 1999, 2001 and 2002 and Solerina for three successive years from 2003.

Last season's Weatherbys Champion Bumper winner Cork All Star will be all the rage for Sunday's Bar-One Racing Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse. Jessica Harrington's four-time bumper winner comfortably defeated Inter Mutanda at this venue over 2m2f on his jumping debut last month and drops back two furlongs for this Grade One event. However this horse will face stiff opposition from Megans Joy, Captain Cee Bee as well as having to contend with three Noel Meade entries. I therefore suggest laying Cork All Star at [2.75].

French Accordion is set to make the leap to Grade 1 Company in the Ballymore Properties Drinmore Novice Chase at Fairyhouse. The opposition will be headed by Edward O'Grady's Sky's The Limit and prolific hurdles winner Kazal. I prefer Sky's The Limit, a former Coral Cup winner at the Cheltenham festival, who has taken well to fences.

Noel's bets:
Back Snowy Morning
Back Katchit
Back Poquelin
Back Sweet Kiln
Back Sky's The Limit
Lay Cork All Star
Lay Black Jack Ketchum (back in running at bigger prices)