Noel's Notebook: The Racing Post Trophy

Events / Noel Bell / 26 October 2007 / Leave a Comment

Betfair pundit Noel Bell looks ahead to the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster this Saturday

The Group One Racing Post Trophy is invariably an intriguing affair that throws up plenty of subsequent Classic winning form. Four winners of the race have gone on to win the Epsom Derby the following year. These are Reference Point, High Chaparral, Motivator and Authorized. Brian Boru won the race in 2002 and he went on to win the Leger the following year.

Aidan O'Brien has an impressive record in the race having won the race in four out of six runnings between 1997 and 2002. I don't see a great deal of difference between his pair Frozen Fire and King of Rome, yet the former is almost half the odds of the latter. That may be due to the booking of Jamie Spencer for Frozen Fire, who won tidily in a maiden at Fairyhouse in the hands of Kieren Fallon. Nonetheless I don't believe that King of Rome should be near double the odds of his stablemate. King of Rome romped home at Tipperary in the High Chaparal Stakes and comes here with a relatively unexposed and progressive profile. Indeed High Chaparal himself won this race in 2001 when he was the least favoured of the O'Brien pair on that day. I expect the 13 (12-1) presently on offer about King of Rome on Betfair will shorten by race time.

Curtain Call is a worthy favourite from the Jessica Harrington yard on the balance of his form but is unlikely to get such an easy lead as he had in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes at the Curragh last time. His previous second to New Approach at the Curragh might have flattered the bare form statistic as he was running on from off the pace.

Godolphin's Ibn Khaldun is progressing along the right lines but for me is too short in the market. I would question the merit of City Leader's win in the Royal Lodge at Ascot, given the bunch finish of that race. Previously that horse was beaten out of sight by Raven's Pass in the Solario Stakes. Declaration of War looks exposed at this stage of the season and in any case is from a yard that has been in better form earlier in the season.

Tayawwed from Sir Michael Stoute's yard might prove to be the dark horse of the race and could be one for the place market. This unexposed colt could prove to be smart and it it is significant that Sir Michael has chosen this horse to represent his stable in this Group 1 race.

A fascinating race is in prospect and for me King of Rome is the value bet of the race for win and place.