Newmarket July Meeting Bets: Day one at HQ

Events / Graham Cunningham / 07 July 2009 / 1 Comments

Fashion is an abiding theme of Newmarket's July Festival with lavish prizes for those who dress to impress. Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham digs out his best cravat and cufflinks and a stylish formbook in a bid to make day one of the summer showpiece go with a swing.

There is a week for two on a cocoa plantation in St Lucia for the racegoer with "the most stylish accessories" at Newmarket this Wednesday.

Now that's fine if you are sunning yourself with a soothing cocktail close to hand, but not so good if you are grafting away cutting sugar cane for 12 hours a day.

Either way, expect to see the best of Essex and East Anglian fashion rolled out for the Channel 4 Cameras, but those who prefer a punt to a pageant might find the following hints worthwhile.

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Goldikova the essential fashion accessory in the Falmouth

The big race on day one of the July Festival is the Falmouth Stakes at 3.10 and the equation here is simple. In short, if French raider Goldikova is on song the rest will probably be playing for places.

Jimmy Fortune is adamant we will see a different Rainbow View once John Gosden's filly gets the chance to race on easy ground, while Spacious recorded a career best in beating Heaven Sent at Royal Ascot and is likely to help force the pace again here.

However, the list of scalps Goldikova claimed in a rampage through some of the world's top contests last year reads like a Who's Who of top milers.

Paco Boy, Henrynavigator, Darjina and Natagora were all behind Freddie Head's filly as she landed a clutch of Group 1 prizes in France, while Kip Deville was left trailing as she burst clear in the Breeders' Cup Mile at Santa Anita.

Granted, she failed to fire in cloying mud at Longchamp on her reappearance, but these conditions will suit her much better and I reckon she should be more like [2.7] than the [3.4] currently available on Betfair.

Before leaving the Falmouth it's also worth putting in a small word for Eva's Request at a big price. Yes, she is strictly held by Spacious and Heaven Sent on Ascot form, but she was dropped out and raced wide there and I can see her faring much better at long odds this time.

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Capercaillie the one to give Habaayib a battle in the Cherry Hinton

If you want to back the most likely winner of the Cherry Hinton Stakes at 2.35 then Habaayib should be your first port of call.

But if you fancy a win and place dabble at longer odds then Capercaillie looks the interesting one.

It's clear that Royal Ascot form holds the key to solving this Group 2 contest and Habaayib boasts much the best chance at the weights based on her impressive success in the Albany Stakes.

That race has produced the Cherry Hinton winner in four of the last five years, but Habaayib is probably just the price she ought to be at around [2.62] and the value call could be to try and find the best of the three fillies who chased home the freewheeling Jealous Again in the Queen Mary Stakes.

In theory it ought to be Misheer, who was two lengths ahead of Ceedwell and Capercaillie at Ascot. But in practice Capercaillie might be the most progressive member of the trio.

Mark Johnston has hinted that Capercaillie is one of the best juvenile fillies he has handled since Attraction, who won this race in 2003 before going on to land the 1,000 Guineas the following spring.

Only time will term whether that view proves accurate, but Capercaillie looked very smart at Musselburgh on her first two starts and almost certainly shaped better than the bare result suggests in the Queen Mary considering she was drawn wide and forced to use up valuable energy in edging across to keep tabs on the leaders.

In truth, I'm not mad keen to oppose Habaayib given the style of her Ascot success, but Capercaillie is around three times the price on Betfair and there will be many worse win and place contenders than her in the big races this week.

Comments (1)

1. Stu | 08 July 2009

   2/1 is a great price about Goldikova and she has to be bet of the day. I'd have her at ~6/4 even with her last run, so she has to go in the book for us.

   My only other bet is Damien ew at 16/1 in the 2.00 handicap. A mark of 102 has to be within his compass and bits of his form are being franked (Doncaster Rover - 2nd lto in front of Damien - won nto). 16s is more than fair and is worth a tickle in a very competitive race.