Newmarket July Festival / Geoffrey Riddle / 09 July 2010 /

Live track talk, betting news, results and more from our blogger who is on the ground at Newmarket's July Course. If you want to get in touch, feel free to comment below, or email him on: theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com

5pm
Well guys, it's time to go. I hope you've had a good day's punting. We were richly rewarded this afternoon by a thrilling contest between Equiano and Starspangledbanner in the July Cup. We wait now in anticipation at the result of Coolmore's decision about their glitzy success story, and whether he'll stay in training or go to Australia for the time of his life. They've got until midnight. Exciting isn't it?

See you next at the Betfair weekend at the end of the month.

4.55pm result:
1: Times Up
2: Bay Willow
3: Ouster
The crowd were roaring for Frankie there, hoping that the diminutive Italian would bail them out in the 'Getting Out stakes.' And despite a bold effort from the front, Bay Willow was swamped at the finish by Times Up.

Dettori tried to make all, and between the three and two-furlong pole he looked to give his mount a breather. Galvanised once again at the two pole, backers flooded to get with him, forcing Bay Willow's price down to [1.53].

4.20pm result:
1: Memen
2: Amwell Pinot
3: Rerouted
I was brought down to earth with a thump there. Never get ahead of yourself in this game. I was delighted to witness, however, a thoroughly convincing performance from Memen, from the Paul Cole stable. The trainer's son, Ollie, wasn't particularly hopeful when he was interviewed by Derek Thompson earlier in the day, which probably explains why there was £68 matched on the winner at [34.0].

4.15pm
While my betting account is buoyed by funds, I've got to keep the momentum going. I don't think I've ever had two forecasts on the same day, but when you're winning you've just got to stop thinking about it and press ahead.

While I completely understand the qualities of favourite Rerouted, the chances of Breathless Storm should not be underestimated.

Rerouted's favouritism owes to the fact that he finished just over three lengths shy of Elzaam on debut in May. Now I am not questioning Elzaam's ability, but he was hardly brilliant in yesterday's July stakes.

Breathless Storm on the other hand was priced at 11-4 behind Zaidan on debut, and that horse hacked up at Royal Ascot in the Chesham. Tom Tate's colt put in a very inexperienced performance that day, and was heavily punted from 15-8 into evens when winning on his next start at Ripon. Tate's stable is admittedly not in the best form, but the horse has been backed once again. What chance another forecast? Rerouted and Breathless Storm?

3.55pm
Starspangledbanner's owner, Michael Tabor, has decided to keep the July Cup winner in training as a four-year-old. The son of Choisir was due to go into quarantine for Australia immediately after today's sprint to take up stallion duties at Coolmore Australia

"You've got to enjoy these horses," said Tabor, sweating under the intense heat here. "We've got an exceptional colt, and I'd love to see him run as a four-year-old. I want to keep him in training."

Tabor, who jointly-owns the Aussie import, will take his views to the massive conflab that is going to take place over the next few hours, a meeting which will effectively decide whether Aidan O'Brien's speedball stays in training or retires to stud.

The decision about whether Starspangledbanner ever sees a racecourse again needs to be taken by midnight tonight, the deadline to registrations for quarantine and the plane that will take Nicconi and Alverta down under.

Tabor continued. "It's no guarantee by any stretch of the imagination that the others will agree, but I'd like to keep him with Aidan [O'Brien]. Of course, we'll all have to have a talk, John [Magnier], Derrick [Smith], Aidan and Demi [O'Bryne]."

Tabor didn't have a bet on course, but he did hint that he invested a chunk in his impressive winner, perhaps even on Betfair. "I looked at the odds this morning, and saw he was a short price. I was pretty sure he'd drift. I know you can get these things wrong, but you can get it right as well."

I told him that his horse was as big as 9-4 on course, to which he replied. "Yeah, but where can you get a bet on? I backed him, but not on course."

3.45pm result:
1: Catfish
2: Ragsah
3: Our Gal

3.10pm result - July Cup:
1: Starspangledbanner
2: Equiano
3: Alverta

2.55pm
I've had a few emails which promote the chances of Fleeting Spirit in the July Cup. Tony, James and Gerard all feel that last year's winner is more than a fair price to do it again, particularly since her trainer, Jeremy Noseda, reckons his filly has improved 7lbs since Royal Ascot.

But guys, take a look at last year's race. What did Fleeting Spirit beat? Main Aim? Don't make me laugh. JJ The Jet Plane? The South African raider won an easy race at Windsor and then never won again in eight starts in England. Paco Boy? Not a sprinter. And she hasn't won since! I've laid her. At least if you guys win, you know whose money you're getting.

2.50pm
Of all the market principals, the one who looks the most over-priced to me is Equiano at [17.5]. The dual King's Stand Stakes winner has everything going for him. He confirmed on his first start of the season that he could handle racing over 6f, when he won the Abernat. And according to ratings he ran the best race of his career when easily taking the five-furlong Group 1 at the Royal meeting a few weeks ago, despite stumbling badly at the start.

That run is in the right ball park, ratings-wise, for a successful tilt at Starspangledbanner, with the only other horse in the race proven capable of registering such figures being Kinsale King. There's your tri-cast.

2.45pm
How about this then? Starspangledbanner's stud fee was set at A$33,000 (£19,624/€23,479), but has reportedly been put on hold. The Racing Post ran the story in their breeding section a few days ago, and when I put it to trainer Aidan O'Brien, a wry smile creased across his face. "I wouldn't know anything about the stud fee," he said, forcing his face into the most angelic shape possible. "They don't tell me what is going on there, so I wouldn't know."

O'Brien was quick to explain that Starspangledbanner was in the same form, or better, than he was at Ascot, but considering he talked up the chances of Emperor Hadrian, too, I'm not going to take too much stock of that.

Either way, if Coolmore have suspended the stud fee, it can only mean they expect the son of Choisir to win, and therefore the stud price will be increased. Speaking to Marcus Armytage, who sits beside me, the Telegraph racing correspondent does not believe that Starspangledbanner's stud price can drop. "Even if he ran a stinker here, the price of his fee wouldn't drop. They might even put together a valid excuse, but either way, it won't go down."

2.35pm result:
1: St Moritz
2: Palace Moon
3: Light From Mars
4: Marajaa
4: Crown Choice
6: Signor Peltro
Well that didn't quite turn out as I forecast, because St Moritz's price shot out to [20.0] in-running, but like most Mark Johnston horses he battled well under Frankie and got up at the line. It was a huge performance from Palace Moon, and confirms the opinion that not only is Laddies Poker Two out of the very top drawer, but so too must Starspangledbanner.

2.25pm
Email in from Tom, who wishes he was here. He's sat in an office, but he is quick to point out that his accountancy firm has tip-top air conditioning. Lucky him. Anyway, Tom writes: "Plum Pudding's win last year was the second-best running of the Bunbury Cup in the last decade, according to ratings. It makes Jeremy Noseda's Captain Brilliance of interest. He was 3-1 favourite last year, and he's only 4lbs higher today."

2.20pm
One incredible aspect about the 32Red Trophy is the lack of pace. Trainer David Simcock touched on it earlier, but if you look carefully at all the runners it is very difficult to see what is going to lead the field. As such, it is easy to see why Mark Johnston's St Moritz is so heavily fancied. The four-year-old used the rail to good effect in the Royal Hunt Cup, but was just found wanting in the final furlong. Back 220 yards here, jockey Frankie Dettori could well poach a lead, and never be headed again. An interesting back-to-lay vehicle if nothing else at [6.6].

2.15pm
Unfortunately the result of the 32Red Trophy, up next, hinges very much along the same lines as the July Cup. Laddies Poker Two broke the course record at Ascot when she won the Wokingham last month. Her time in winning the Royal Meeting's big handicap sprint was .30sec quicker than Starspangledbanner's time in the Golden Jubilee. Taking into account weight for age and pounds per length and all that guff, Laddies Poker Two comes out just 2lbs shy of Starspangledbanner. Now either Starspangledbanner is not as good as some think, or Laddies Poker Two is also an exceptional animal.

Palace Moon finished third in the Wokingham and was giving Laddies Poker Two 10lbs, which suggests he's an incredibly good horse. Trainer William Knight, who is one of the most genial gentlemen I've spoken to on the racecourse, reckons his 'big black beast' is very well capable of saddling his huge weight to victory. Palace Moon carries 9st 10lbs with Kieren Fallon in the irons, and it is the same weight carried to victory by Plum Pudding last year and Mine in 2006.

2pm result:
1: King Torus
2: Ecliptic
Richard Hannon's juveniles are in flying form right now, and I can't think of a Group race in Britain that he hasn't won with them this season.

The in-running story was extremely curious, however, because Ahmed Ajtebi put in an eye-brow raising performance aboard the tricky Ecliptic.

Ajtebi had a real struggle on his hands in the early stages as he tried to get his headstrong mount settled. Once he was headed by King Torus, the Emerati jockey gave his partner a real crack of the whip. Ecliptic shied away into the open space of the July course, after which his price shot out to [42.0]. But Ajtebi changed his whip hand and organised his mount, who subsequently flew inside the final furlong. About 100 yards away from the line it looked like the pair were going to reel in King Torus, and Ecliptic was matched at as low as [1.13]. Good work if you can get it. Well done whoever traded that successfully.

1.30pm result:
1: Sea Lord
2: First Hand
3: Dance East
Amy Ryan kicks off July Cup day with a win for the girls aboard Sea Lord. Mark Johnston's colt never made the paddock because he was taken down to the start early. Although he was always up with the pace, Ryan seemed to find more and more, and the pair just held off the dour challenge of First Hand.

1.20pm
They are going down to the start for the first race. Favourite Highland Knight was sweating up a bit in the paddock between his legs, which is probably not such an issue on a roasting hot day like today. I'm not sweating, though, and neither was Finest Reserve, who looked the pick of the paddock by a mile.

The mount of Kieren Fallon looked at least two hands bigger than anything else, and looked fit, athletic and shiny as hell. He's been backed, and as explained earlier, the pace of this race will suit him down to the ground. I'm on.

1.10pm
Damien Oliver left Australia on Wednesday, and he goes back again tomorrow. I think he's taking the term 'jet-set' a little too far there. The Australian jockey gets the leg up on Nicconi, and was in the plate when David Hayes's five-year-old blitzed the field in the Group 1 Lightening Stakes, Australia's premier sprint over five furlongs.

Oliver clearly thinks the trip is worth it. "It's pretty quiet back home at the moment, so this was a perfect opportunity for me to come and ride in one of Europe's top races," said the man who has ridden 91 Group 1 winners.

"I've walked the course and it's a little on the firm side, but that won't trouble our boy. That Ascot run looked a little on the short side for him, which is strange because back home it is his favourite trip."

12.45pm
Over the last ten years there have been 13 international challengers for the July Cup that hailed from outside Europe. Unlike Ascot's Golden Jubilee, or the King's Stand, the July Cup has failed to leave Europe since Agnes World took it to Hong Kong in 2000. It's difficult to pinpoint exactly why, but Nicconi, who was sent off favourite for the King's Stand, has been well backed this morning to change this turn of fortunes. The Aussie raider trades at [14.5], having been matched at [22.0] earlier.

I can't see why he's been backed. Trainer David Hayes was very bullish about Nicconi's chances at the Royal Meeting, and today's race was simply an after-thought when he finished a lack-lustre fourth. What's more, Hayes had very concrete reasons for believing his raider was primed to perfection for Ascot. He said before the race: "Nicconi's unbeaten first time up after a break, undefeated at five furlongs and has never run in a visor, which I've been dying to do for two years. I think he can run better in a visor than he has before."

The July Cup comes just 24 days after Ascot, it is over a furlong further, and he ran so-so in the first-time visor last time. Nicconi is a multiple Group 1 winner, including over 6f but something must have dramatically improved in the last three weeks for this support to be worthwhile.

12.35pm
Jonathan has emailed in. While he acknowledges that Spirit of Sharjah prefers softer going, he is a huge fan of Julie Fielden's horse, and has backed it to win the 32Red Trophy (2.35pm).

"Spirit of Sharjah pushed Fleeting Spirit to under two lengths in the Flying Childers when a juvenile," he dazzles us. "Julie Fielden seems to have got Spirit of Sharjah somewhere near the potential it promised as a youngster. Spirit of Shajah won a listed race at Leicester in a good time in April. Since then the horse was campaigned over too far at York, and then was unfavourably drawn in the Britannia. Massive price. I've taken [30.0]."

The Soviet Star bar is an open air bar just behind the stands, which is a perfect place for a leisurely Pimms or pint, while studying the form. They've even got a string quartet that plays relaxing numbers like Greensleeves and Elgar's Enigma Variations. You can imagine the clientele that frequents this bar. So you can also imagine their horror when the bar's TVs were fired up, and they started to blare out 'I like The Way You Move," by the Body Rockers. There were some priceless expressions. Think lemons and vinegar all rolled into one.

Noon
Before you all go charging in on the Balding horse, this game is all about opinion, and here's a different perspective. Races tend to be decided by pace, and if you look at the field in the 1.30pm, there's going to no hanging around.

Colepeper, Sea Lord, Mr Irons, Karaka Jack, and Musaafer have all forced the pace in the past, and so has, unfortunately for Stedman, Highland Knight.

Only King Of Windsor and Finest Reserve are hold-up horses, with the latter's form getting better and better each day, after Venutius, Breakheart and Sand Skier franked the form here over the past two days.

11.55am
Sometimes when people go on about things, it pays to sit up and take notice. Alex Stedman, the RUK presenter, has been wittering on about the chances of Highland Knight since last night.

Trainer Andrew Balding has entered the lightly-raced Highland Knight in the opening race, the 32Red Casino Handicap. Stedman has gone big, too, tipping eight points on the favourite, which traded at [5.8] last night, but is now as short as [4.0]. Food for thought.

11.35am
Trainer David Simcock has entered two in this afternoon's big handicap, the 32Red Trophy (2.35pm). Somewhat unfortunately for the Newmarket man, both Suruor and Noble Citizen are drawn on the far side, or in the low numbers, where, in his own words, "there doesn't look to be much pace."

With the ground drying out, it is likely that Suruor will be withdrawn, so if you do fancy the four-year-old in the seven-furlong feature, it may pay to wait until just before race time to check he's running. I'd suggest the same tactic with Spirit of Sharjah, who also needs softer conditions, according to his trainer, Julie Fielden.

11.30am
Welcome to July Cup day from a muggy, yet beautiful Newmarket. I reckon I've sweated around a pint getting here, what with the fierce heat on London's tube, and the fact that no-one seems to want to open the windows on the overland service to Cambridge. Still, enough about my travel travails, aren't other people's travel stories so dull?

Clerk of the course Michael Prosser reckons we're in for a scorcher here this afternoon on the July course, with temperatures rising to 28C. Phew. And as the turf, which is good to firm, dries, we're sure to have some non-runners. We've already got three:
1.30pm: Sweet Child O'Mine
3.45pm: Saskia's Dream
4.20pm: Belgian Bill

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