Newmarket Festival Bets: Keep it simple on day one

Newmarket July Festival / Graham Cunningham / 07 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Despite the stormy clouds there are quality races on day one at HQ

"Masked Marvel is trading at [3.4]. And I reckon that represents very fair value."

Day one of Newmarket's July Meeting has dawned with cloud and a few showers. However, Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham is relishing the prospect of an afternoon at HQ and nominates three suitable options to start the Festival with a swing.

Much can go wrong in the course of a day's punting at the big meetings, but this could be one of those days when it pays to keep it simple at Newmarket.

And the starter for ten is Masked Marvel in the opener at 13:20. Census is attracting plenty of support for this Group 3 St leger trial, but he needs to improve markedly having been beaten off a BHA mark of 94 at Ascot and I can't rate him value at [3.45].

The progressive Solar Sky brings better form to the table after his fine second in the Queen's Vase, but Masked Marvel is the pick here both on his impressive Goodwood Listed success and his solid eighth in the Derby last time.

Masked Marvel looked a willing galloper in both those contests and looks set to be well suited by this demanding uphill finish. He's currently trading at [3.4] on Betfair. And I reckon that represents very fair value.

Roman Soldier looks another very solid fancy at a shade under 3 in the July Stakes at 13:50.

Granted, he faces a stern rival in the impressive Windsor Castle winner Frederick Engels and Church Music looks open to bundles of improvement based on his runaway debut win at York.

However, Roman Soldier looks well-equipped for the task judged on his fine second to the exciting Power in Royal Ascot's Coventry Stakes.

Trip handicappers will be well aware that Jeremy Noseda's colt fared much the best of those ridden prominently at Ascot and, with Ryan Moore aboard for the first time, this looks the ideal slot for him to open his Group race account.

Taking [3.5] about the favourite in a hot handicap such as the 14:25 isn't to be recommended on a regular basis, but it could pay to make an exception in the case of Roger Varian's Mijhaar.

Varian has been striking at a rate of almost one in three in handicaps this season and Mijhaar left a lasting impression both with the way he smashed up two subsequent good winners in a Haydock maiden and with the way he travelled for a long way when fourth in Nathaniel's King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Swift Alhaarth and Fadhaa are the two others to note in a race that looks bound to produce plenty of winners, but Mijhaar has impressed as a potential Pattern race colt this year. And if that's the case he will be very hard to beat from a BHA mark of just 96.

The featured Princess of Wales's Stakes at 15:00 looks a shade too tough for my liking, but there could be a hint of value about Harbour Watch in the 15:35.

Betfair's market suggests the Norfolk Stakes fourth Burwaaz has plenty in hand here and his Norfolk Stakes fourth clearly represents the best form on offer. That said, Harbour Watch quickened smartly to power clear on his debut in a Salisbury maiden. He's open to bags of improvement and could give the jolly a great deal to think about.

Thursday recommendations
13:20: Back Masked Marvel at [3.4]
13:50: Back Roman Soldier at [2.94]
14:25: Back Mijhaar at [3.5]
15:35: Back Harbour Watch at [4.0]