Betfair Official Blog

Newmarket Betting: The Flat season starts here plus the small matter of the Kentucky Derby

Click here to view market

Graham Cunningham talks us through the main races at Newmarket on Saturday where New Approach is a good bet to place and why Big Brown may defy a poor draw to put in a big run in Kentucky

THERE are certain punting weekends when you feel less than prepared for battle and others when you feel you have just enough of an edge to get your nose in front.

But once in a while you feel that all the pieces of the jigsaw are slotting neatly into place.

And, without wishing to tempt fate, I have a good feeling about this weekend.

Forget the Lincoln and the Craven meeting. Newmarket's Guineas Festival signals the true start of the Flat season on turf and, for many people, the stakes are raised considerably on the betting front.

Channel 4 will cover four races live and Racing UK will have the whole shebang along with some valuable races at Goodwood and Thirsk to be followed, of course, by the Kentucky Derby.

Thankfully, I will be watching from home instead of trying to decipher what has happened on a 12-inch screen from the RUK pitch. It could be a great decision or it could be very costly. Either way, here are some early thoughts as to which way my money will be going.

2000 Guineas

FINDING any sort of edge has been a struggle due to the presence of New Approach. On form he's the best horse in the race - with a deserved Timeform rating of 127 - and the stiff HQ mile looks made for him. The [2.8] in the win market isn't bad value, but offers of [1.5] or bigger about him making the first three are hard to ignore.

Raven's Pass is a serious rival and fine weather plainly wouldn't harm his prospects, but my inclination for another trade is to work around the bigger priced horses. Moynahan appeals as one to outrun his massive odds, while place lays of Fireside and Plan look low risk investments. The bar has been raised high by New Approach and company and it's asking a great deal of these two maiden winners to reach that level on just their third start.

Suggestion: Back New Approach to be placed and place lay Plan and Fireside

1000 Guineas

THE absence of Zarkava and Listen makes this a very winnable Classic and I sincerely hope Savethisdanceforme can land it having backed her win and place. The problem is, I stepped in at 20 last month and she is now much shorter even though Natagora, Infallible and Muthabara have all posted decisive trial wins.

Splitting that trio isn't easy, so why not let them get on with it and look to lay Laureldean Gale and Spacious in the place market instead? Godolphin feel Laureldean Gale can get too fiery before her races. That's plainly a worry, and the fact that she is small and wiry suggests she will struggle to progress as well as some in this field. Spacious has ample physical scope, but she needs to improve to hit the placings at Group 1 level and laying her at [2.5] or under looks a risk worth taking.

Suggestion: Back Savethisdanceforme win and place and place lay Spacious and Laureldean Gale

Newmarket 2.10

Mark Johnston has won this twice in recent years and comes at this year's renewal double handed with Robby Bobby and Arctic Cape. The former is hard to assess after floundering at Ripon on his reappearance, but Arctic Cape is the one who appeals as a lay option for several reasons. First, he faces a clutch of useful rivals including Perks, Prime Exhibit, Red Rumour and American Art. And secondly, Arctic Cape has looked an awkward customer more than once, including when staying on for fourth in the Esher Cup at Sandown last week. In short, he's worth a small lay in both the win and the place markets.

Suggestion: Lay Arctic Cape win and place

Newmarket 2.45

An intriguing choice between Heaven Sent and Passage Of Time and a case of rolling back the years for a clash between Stoute and Cecil. The case for Heaven Sent rests on the fact that she is consistent and progressive and guaranteed to be fully fit after her emphatic Listed success on the all weather at Kempton. And the case for Passage Of Time rests on a series of fine efforts in top company last year including two excellent placed efforts in Group 1 company in France and America. It could be close, and the market will prove informative, but Passage Of Time is favoured by the weights and gets the vote in the belief that this step down in trip won't trouble her in the slightest.

Suggestion: Back Passage Of Time

Goodwood 4.15

A useful sprint featuring two potential lay candidates. Stolt is the first. Granted, he is in fine form, but he had the stand rail to help when making all at Thirsk and a 6lb rise plus the presence of other front runners will make life tough now. Lord Of The Reins is the other to take on. His recent form figures are impressive, but he found a charmed run off a mark of 64 at Kempton and seemed flattered when picking off tiring rivals off 69 at Great Leighs. He races off 76 here and will do very well to win again.

Suggestion: Lay Stolt and Lord Of The Reins

Goodwood 4.50

East Drive is well related and travelled nicely for a long way on his Newbury debut, while Lush showed promise on her Newmarket reappearance, but Strategic Mover will be very hard to beat if back to the sort of form he showed to finish fourth behind McCartney in a Listed race at Salisbury last summer. Granted, Paul Cole's colt failed to build on that in a maiden here on his sole subsequent start, but he moves like a horse who will be suited by give underfoot and the fact that his stable have made a good start suggests that fitness is unlikely to be a problem after his break.

Suggestion: Back Strategic Mover

Kentucky Derby

MOST experts seem to agree that this year's Run For The Roses lacks the depth of the 2007 renewal. And quite a few seem to think that being drawn 20 is a big knock to the chances of the exciting Big Brown. But I'm not so sure. Big Brown doesn't have to lead and his thunderous success in the Florida Derby marks him out as a colt with much more natural ability than most in this field. There might be one to trouble him, but it will come as a big surprise if he is out of the money and a 70-30 split stakes place and win bet looks the safe call given that some Betfair layers seem out to get him. Of the rest, Gayego appeals as a potential improver, but Pyro is hard to assess. He looked mighty in the Louisiana Derby, but his subsequent flop in the Bluegrass Stakes surely can't just be put down to a false pace and the Polytrack surface.

Suggestion: Back Big Brown 70-30 place and win