Events / Jack Houghton / 10 July 2008 / 2

Our horseracing columnist has another bash at tipping - perhaps it wasn't such a good idea to show his workings

It's a momentous day. In the absence of anything else to write about - and after much persuasion - the editors at betting.betfair have agreed to let me do some tipping.

Last time they temporarily weakened their "Don't Let Jack Tip" stance was during the Cheltenham Festival. However, after I recommended 823 bets, showing a level stakes profit of £1.21, they felt their original stance justified. Apparently, I just haven't got the "mentality" to tip well. I was told to leave it to Rowlands and Cunningham and focus on what I do best. Whatever that is.

I think they're being harsh. I know, I'll find a July Cup winner. That'll show 'em. Readers will carry me high on their virtual shoulders and those pesky yes-men at Betfair HQ will be forced to give me a regular tipping spot.

Given this opportunity, some would assiduously study the past performances of this crop of July Cup wannabees; carefully weighing up all the variables - trainer form, draw bias, ground preference and speed ratings - until a precise percentage winning chance was arrived at for each horse. In fact, this is exactly what Rowlands or Cunningham would do: beaver away with all the available data, positive and negative, and arrive at a considered conclusion as to the best value bet.

That's great lads, but everyone knows you're good tipsters. You've got nothing to prove. I need more than a good value bet. I need a winner. As someone famous once said - perhaps it was Aristotle - you can't eat value. So I need to be decisive. Probabilities are no good; certainty is the only currency to trade with in this shit-or-Shinola situation. And anyhow, the deadline for this is only two hours away, so detailed investigation is unrealistic. (Note to self: winners spend their mornings working; losers watch antique-based gameshows on TV).

Sixteen horses! Sweet Jesus, I can't possibly look at all these. Come on, focus. Back to first principles: horses don't win unless suited by the ground. That's good. Go through the form and eliminate those who haven't returned a rating on soft ground roughly equitable with their best good ground form. Brilliant! Eight of the buggers gone already. I always knew this was easy.

Something's just occurred to me. How do I know the ground's going to be soft on Friday? Well, it's raining here in Guildford and the last time I was in Newmarket (January) it was raining. So soft ground must be likely. I would look at weather and going reports, and perhaps then email Rowley to get his current ground assessment based on the times of the first few races, but that'll take ages. And I can never understand Rowley's stopwatch deliberations anyway.

Kingsgate Native hasn't made the cut, and he's one of the favourites. Always good to discard a fancied horse early - go "against the crowd" and all that. Mmm, just noticed he came second in a Group 1 on soft ground. Oh well, out of sight, out of mind; he's already had the line drawn through him so let's move on. War Artist is out as well. Makes sense, he's from South Africa. It's always sunny down there, so he's bound to hate the soft ground.

What now? I know. Sprinters need to run regularly to maintain their sharpness, so any who haven't run for a while are out. That's none of them. Bugger, still eight to go and I'm running short of ideas.

Of course! How stupid of me? They need to be fast to win Europe's premier sprint. Anything yet to return a speed rating within ten per cent of the best in the race is out. Pants, that's all of them. Better make it five percent. That's better, four left. But I notice US Ranger is one of the failures. Shame, I like Aidan O'Brien, and he's been winning everything recently. What's more, I've backed the horse a few times and it would just be my luck for the thing to improve dramatically on the soft ground and sluice up. Still, no time for sentiment, he doesn't fit the criteria, so he's out. Move on.

Les Arcs is one of the four remaining, but I'm going to put a line through him; he went hurdling for a while, and hurdlers don't win July Cups. What's more, we've hardly seen him run in two years. He must have been injured. Damn, just noticed he's a past winner of the July Cup. It seems hurdlers have quite a good record in the race after all. As far as my records show, all July Cup runners who previously finished eighth or better in a hurdle race at Cartmel have gone on to win at Newmarket. If only I'd looked at that before. But it's too late now, the line is there; Les Arcs is not a contender.

Three left. Benbaun, Marchand D'Or and Prime Defender. Marchand D'Or is French! They wouldn't be bringing him all this way for the fresh air would they? There it is: Marchand D'Or is my tip. But hang on, the other two are massive prices, I can do something fancy here...

After hours of study, carefully weighing up all the variables, I recommend splitting your stake as follows: 60 per cent on Marchand D'Or, 20 per cent on Benbaun and 20 per cent on Prime Defender.

I always knew this tipping malarkey was easy.

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1. John | 10 July 2008

   Jack, is there any chance you guys at bettting.betfair.com could do an article(s) on different selecting methods

   good work

   thanks
   john

2. Jack Houghton | 16 July 2008

   John

   Watch this space - I'll do something for this weekend as you suggest and perhaps try and encourage the other guys to do something as well in future: getting a variety of perspectives is always good.

   Jack

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