Events / Geoffrey Riddle / 26 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Geoffrey Riddle returns to the Betting.Betfair blogging hotseat for the first day of action at Newbury's three-day Winter Festival. E-mail him with your questions or share your tips and stats on: theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com

3.45pm result:
1: Oscar Whisky
2: Midnight Prayer
3: Court in Motion
Favourite backers go home warm as Barry Geraghty puts in a steering job on Oscar Whisky. Court In Motion plodded on to take third. Well done those who backed it in the place market at [9.6].

The sky is beginning to bruise now folks. The sun has dipped and the chill is setting in. It may not be winter just yet, but is sure as hell feels like it here now. It's absolutely freezing. Join me back here tomorrow for another cracking card. From here at 11am. I'm off to see what all this Mahiki chit-chat is all about.

3.15pm
1: Get Me Out Of Here
2: Yetholm
3: Lepido
Get Me Out Of Here bundles a fair few of you out of trouble. There's been a despondent air amongst those punters who have been e-mailing in. I can't believe I didn't back that. And to think, I didn't back it just because Jonjo O'Neill's horses had run particularly well today. Silly.

Below are the first-time out W/L records at Newbury of the respective trainers with racecourse debutants in the next race:
P Webber: 1-13
B de Haan 0-5
A King 1-8
P Hobbs 0-7
D Arbuthnot 0-1
P Nicholls 0-2
The stats about Nicholls are slightly misleading because overall, at all tracks his record stands at an impressive 28%.

Remember that Barry Fenton, who is representing Emma Lavelle this afternoon quite fancied Court In Motion when we spoke to him here earlier.

3.10pm
David Cleary of Timeform reckons Letalus is over-priced. "Who knows if his trainer is any good," says Cleary. "He's having his first runner, but on his best form, Letalus is very well weighted. He's looks a big price."

Letalus was last seen on a racecourse when winning a handicap hurdle over two miles on heavy ground at Warwick in January 2008. He raced off 113 that day, and is let in on 114 this afternoon.

3pm
Graham Roach has owned some top-class animals in his time. Not least the great Viking Flagship, on whom Tony McCoy won the Mumm Melling Chase at Aintree in 1993. McCoy has ridden for Roach on only two other occasions, when winning the Novices Chase on this card on Cornish Rebel in 2004 and again on Michel Le Bon this afternoon. "He's the ultimate super sub," joked Roach, who has around a dozen horses with Paul Nicholls down at Ditcheat. Despite the easy victory of Michel Le Bon over today's trip of three miles, Roach was quick to point out the flaws in his performance. "We need to get his jumping right," Roach continued. "Perhaps he might get further then."

It was a view that Nicholls himself echoed. "He was very green when we got him, and he's schooled every day this week in preparation for this," the champion trainer said. "I've got to get more experience into him. He's got lots of schooling to come that one."

Ante-post players can get a best-priced 20-1 with Skybet for the Royal and SunAlliance Chase over 110yards further at the Festival.

2.55pm
If this theme of people coming good here after a drought of winners is to continue, Nearby is a certainty in the next. Chris Davies is without a win in 1704 days. Punters who take a bit more stock of their betting will consider Radium, out of Nicky Henderson's yard, which has been heavily backed all day.

If Jonjo O'Neill's horses had put their best foot forward today, I would have thought that Get Me Out Of Here would have a real chance. The five-year-old has won all his races going left-handed over today's distance and should handle the going. Horses have come out of his races and won, so the form looks solid.

2.40pm
1: Exmoor Dancer
2: Ice Bucket
3: Victorias Groom
Well Emma Lavelle threw off a Newbury monkey here, and now Mr Joshua Guerriero has done, too. Mr Guerriero had ridden 34 rides during the last 602 days without a sniff of a winner, and yet, despite the drought, he put in a beautiful ride on Exmoor Ranger.

Stalking Ice Bucket and Victorias Groom, he pounced after clearing the last and rode out to win cosily. I can only wonder what the in-running details were, but Betfair crashed out a few minutes ago. I'm pretty sure I would have backed that in-running. I feel your pain.

2.05pm result:
1: Michel Le Bon
2: Bench Warrent
Nick Mordin strikes! Michel Le Bon looked the winner from almost the off, and jockey Tony McCoy was toying with the field as soon as he reached the straight. There was a cheer from the box next door when Pettifour fell at the second last, which was pretty poor show. It must be those types who are here for solely Mahiki Madness.

2.05pm
Amazing. Trainer Emma Lavelle waits 1363 days for a winner here, and on the day she finally gets one, she's not even present to witness it. Lavelle is represented by Barry Fenton, who couldn't believe the stable had gone through such a drought here. Fenton was delighted by Zarrafakt's win in the handicap hurdle. "You need a special horse to get round and to win here," Fenton said. "Although it was a big field, it wasn't the most competitive race. I don't see Zarrafakt being a Saturday horse, but he'll win his races."

Punters hoping that lighting will strike twice will be interested in Fenton's comments about the stable's Court In Motion that runs in the bumper at 3.45pm. "He's a real nice one," Fenton continued. "He's a big powerful type who will gallop all the way to the line. I'm not going to pretend that he won't need the run, but he'll run well."

1.30pm result:
1: Zarrafakt
2: Prince Du Beury
3: Ragamuffin Man
4: Sir Kezbaah
Oh ye of little faith. Zarrafakt was matched at a high of [40.0] when looking beat inside the final furlong, but jockey Jack Doyle galvanised his mount to get up at the line. It was the first time trainer Emma Lavelle has won here for 1363 days, or 55 runner. Phew.

The Novices' Chase up next is generally won by a top-notcher. Valley Henry, Shotgun Willy, Cornish Rebel and Joe Lively have all won this en route to greater things in the past decade. There were three who posted Racing Post Ratings that were in the 150s, and with Pettifour already on 149, you would imagine there is little to stop him registering a win for trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies.

Although Paul Nicholls has also saddled three winners of this in the last decade, he has also sent out the beaten favourite in this contest for the last three years. His Nevada Royale and The Totherone both fell in 2007 and 2008, to boot. For supporters of his Michel Le Bon, stats freak Nick Mordin of the Racing Post Weekender can't see defeat for Michel Le Bon. He writes: "Over the last 14 years Nicholls has won with novice chase debutants who earned RPRs of 140 or more over hurdles an amazing 35 times out of 45."

1.20pm
Riverside Theatre has impressed the punters here today with his fluid win in the Beginners' Chase, but seemingly not the layers. Skybet and William Hill go 16-1 about Nicky Henderson's winner for the Arkle, while the Tote have chalked up 12-1.
Henderson's fifth successive Novice Chase winner is [17.0] to back and [20.0] to lay on Betfair.

Henderson was visually impressed by that effortless win afterwards in the paddock, and Cornelius Lysaght, the BBC's racing correspondent reckons that riverside Theatre could be a quarter of those odds come Cheltenham time.

1.15pm
It's a battle of the Flat sires up next. Benny The Dip, the 1997 Derby winner, is the sire of The Big Orse. Dalakhani, the brilliant winner of the 2003 Prix Du Jockey Club sired Ragamuffin Man, and Hernando, the 1993 Prix Du Jockey Club winner, fathered PSI. Throw in Rainbow Quest, who is the sire of Ermine Sea and Domedriver, who sired Home, and we have quite a cast of sires.

The Big Orse's second to subsequent Cheltenham runner-up Balthazar king looks pretty useful form. That performance was on unsuitably good to firm going and back in softer conditions, Pat Phelan's seven-year-old can be better. Don't forget earlier this year, The Big Orse was running, albeit badly, against the likes of Celestial Halo, Osana and Afsoun.

12.55pm result:
1: Riverside Theatre
2: Calusa Crystal
Barry Geraghty saunters home on the well-backed favourite to set up a potentially rewarding day for Nicky Henderson. Geraghty was looking between his legs at Lady An Co two out, and he won with any amount in hand.

Jockey Harry Skelton probably didn't factor in the long Newbury straight aboard Lady An Co, because by the time his mount reached the furlong marker he was legless. The rest of the field sensed they would catch him, but Skelton simply couldn't conjure any more from his mount and eventually finished last. There will be some angry forecast punters out there.

12.53pm
Oooh, the Betfair forum is a bitter place to inhabit isn't it? There's a delightful thread in there going on about how how skint the owners of Dubai's ground-breaking Palm Jumeirah Island are right now. It all circles around this article in the Times today:

"Great," spits out Fat Dodgy, "loads of expats going to return to burden us. Perhaps we should set up 'Footballers in Need."

Another has realised the potential implications to the British racing industry if Sheikh Mohammed hits the skids financially. "Poor old Shiekhy down to his last 500 horses?", he says.

Miaow...

12.50pm
Riverside Theatre continues to harden, and now trades at [1.87]. Lady An Co is out to [4.1], and in the matchbet market you can back the Paul Nicholl's runner for pennies at [2.68] against the favourite.

It's helicopter-tastic here. I've counted three arriving in the last half hour. My ageing eyes can't spot from this vantage point who is getting out of them, but needless to say they better be off-setting their carbon footprint...

12.40pm
Poor old Andrew Turnell, who saddles Captain Americo in the next. The Wiltshire trainer has sent out 33 runners without a winner. Jeez that must be tough. All those early mornings, and nothing in return. There's a few other albatrosses here this afternoon. Emma Lavelle, who saddles Zarrafakt in the 1.30pm and Court In Motion in the 3.45pm, hasn't had a winner at Newbury for 1363 days. That's almost four years. That record spans 55 runners here. Cripes.

It gets worse. Jockey Chris Davies, who is in the plate on Nearby in the 3.15pm hasn't won for 1704 days, or 58 rides. It makes you think what is going through Mr Joshua Guerriero's mind when he looks at his record: 34 rides and 602 days without a winner. It can always get worse Mr Joshua...

12.25pm result:
1: Midnight Queen
2: Miss Overdrive
3: Gilwen Glory
Tony McCoy didn't mind being taken on for the lead at any point in that race, quite simply because he knew he had enough left in the tank. He beasted Midnight Queen all the way up the long Newbury straight, and when he was challenged two out by Miss Overdrive, Midnight Queen was matched at [5.6] in-running.

12.20pm
These early starts often throw me. The first race is in five minutes. I know it is a competitive contest, but for me, I can't see why Gilwen Glory is not favourite. The aforementioned Barry Geraghty, who is riding out of his skin at the moment, is in the plate. As a presser, the race is likely to be run to suit as Midnight Queen, Palmito and even Queen Poline like to bowl along in front. It's the chief reason why I was put off backing Queen Poline. If you do want to back the five-year-old, it may be better to wait until the race has started to see whether jockey Leighton Aspell contests the lead with the other two. If Aspell tucks his mount in, and doesn't expend energy in trying to outbid the field for the lead, then it's all go.

12.05pm
Today's racing revolves around one man: Nicky Henderson. The Lamborn trainer is in such a purple patch right now, he might as well be wearing one of his nice lavender jumpers. Perhaps he is, although I'm yet to see him here. Anyway, Henderson has saddled 12 winners from his last 25 runners. It's quite a strike-rate. What's more, he has an impressive record here generally, winning with 22% of his runners at Newbury over the last five years. But if that isn't enough, his last four runners in Novice Chases have all won, which bodes extremely well for Riverside Theatre's chances in the 12.55pm. Jockey Barry Geraghty is in the irons and the Irishman has won with four of his last six rides. I can't think how the planets could be more aligned. A big run is expected, too, because the five-year-old has been heavily backed. Traded at a high of [2.5], the gelding is now odds-on having attracted over 60% of the race's trade on Betfair.

The real springer from Henderson's yard, however, is Radium in the 3.15pm. The high street reps here are bleating about the money on the four-year-old, especially Skybet who are 10-3 from 11-2. On Betfair, the horse was matched at a massive [9.4], but now trades at half that. Look.

11.45am
The Racing Post today is about as effective as a paper door in Cockermouth. For £1.70, it's useless. Where's the Seagull when you need him? The era-spanning Gerald Delamere is also absent. Not even the great Graham Cunningham has filed on betting.betfair. Where is everyone? Have they forgotten that Newbury's three-day meeting kicks off today? At least one tipster has had his say. Carl Harris, the indomitable Betting.betfair tipster, reckons that Paul Nicholls' ex-French Lady An Co will win the Beginners' Chase (12.55pm) Pettifour will win the Novices Chase at 2.05pm, and Get Me Out Of Here will take the 3.15pm. It's a starting point at the very least.

"It's called the Winter Festival, but isn't it actually autumn still?," writes Jonathan, pedantically. Well, yes, I suppose it is still technically autumn until the start of December. With the sun shining like it is today autumn might even continue until next year, what with global warming being what it is. A helicopter has just landed in the middle of Newbury's lush green track. That's not going to help carbon emissions, is it?

11.30am
Welcome everyone to the first day of the Newbury Winter festival blog. It's been the sort of morning here that makes all jump racing enthusiasts wake up and laugh out loud. It's beautiful. The sun is warm, the course looks an absolute picture, and there is a cracking card this afternoon.

The place is awash with the great and the good, all of whom will all be trying to force themselves into Mahiki trackside during the three-day meeting. Yep, the favourite Mayfair nightspot of Princes Wills and Harry is all set to bring a touch of glamour to Berkshire's tweedy types over the next few days. It's free to get in during racing, but once the thoroughbreds stop running around the track, the other kind of in-bred sort will be heading for the bar to sup weird cocktails out of chopped up tropical fruits. It closes at around 2am.

Tags: Geoffrey Riddle, Newbury