Events / Geoffrey Riddle / 28 November 2009 /

Geoffrey Riddle is at Newbury to witness another cracking Hennessy Gold Cup on day three of the Winter Festival. Email him your queries, or share your insights and tips on: theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com.

3.45pm result:
1: Shillingstone
2: Scots Dragoon
3: Kennel Hill
Harry 'Midas Touch' Findlay, eh? Shillingston toyed with Scots Dragoon and in the process fooled a fair few in-running layers. At one point the Alner horse flew out to [4.0], but there was no denying that when the pair settled down to slug it out there was only going to be one winner.

Well that's it then folks. It's been a marvellous day's sport. We've watched Big Buck's play with a small field to cement his position as the best 3m hurdler in Britain. A rare treat has also been afforded to us as Denman became the first horse since the great Arkle to win a second Hennessy Gold Cup. It was a consummate weight-carrying performance and one that whets the appetite for the huge clash with stable mate Kauto Star in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March. For the record, and this is on the internet so it will be floating around the ether for ever more, I'm on Denman now, and will be again after Kauto's price is nibbled at when he wins the King George on Boxing Day.

See you on Friday at Sandown for the Tingle Creek Meeting where Well Chief bids to make hay in the absence of Master Minded. Off in to the night team, the Mahiki marquee is waiting...

3.35pm
In all the melee, I failed to see what price What A Friend traded at in-running as he loomed large behind Denman in the final furlong. He looked all the world like he would swing past, but once he got level, you could see he didn't have the stomach for the fight. I bet it was short. Nicholls was full of praise for his six-year-old, but confirmed that he was a little, shall we say, unlikely to win a eyeball to eyeball tussle. "He's the sort of horse that needs to be bang in there close to the finish line," Nicholls said. "He's got to be four horses in a line, and his neck has just got to poke through."

If Findlay is to cap one of the best days of his life, then Shillingstone must win the lucky last. He's backed it and it is not surprise that the seven--year-old trades at [2.54].

3.15pm result:
1: Fairyland
2: Frontier Dancer
3: Trafalgar Road
4: Nampour
Harry Findlay treated the crowd to the sort of passion and largesse that you rarely see from owners when Denman walked into the ring. "GET IN, COME ON," he shouted from the podium as if he was on the terraces. You half expected him to start singing, "We're on the way to Chelten-ham...there's only one Den-man." It would definitely be better than Jim Lewis singing.

Anyway, once the big man had cooled down, and had time to think clearly, he was adamant that Denman would win the Cheltenham Gold Cup once again. "Lump on," he said. "The ground there is guaranteed, we're now guaranteed." Findlay was extremely impressed by Denman's emphatic victory. "He wasn't even trying for the first mile," he continued. "He wasn't jumping Denman-style, but suddenly down the back straight, he got into that rhythm we know so well."

The high street layers are completely in a quandary about the Cheltenham Gold Cup betting. The Magic Sign make it 2-1 each of two as it was two years ago when Denman won this en route to a crushing victory over Kauto Star at Prestbury Park. Skybet offer the best-price in the village about Denman at 11-4. On Betfair it's [3.3] Kauto and [3.7] Denman.

Trainer Paul Nicholls confirmed what everyone saw; that Denman had indeed put all of his problems behind him. "I worked Denman over five furlongs with Big Buck's on Saturday and Wednesday. He must be back to his best to live with Big Buck's over that distance. That was probably the best run he has ever had."

Nicholls was initially against running Denman in the lexus Chase over in Ireland, stipulating that likely boggy ground would be against him. "I may just run him once more in the Aon back here," he added. "He seems to like it here and we've got a hell of a race at Cheltenham, haven't we?"

Hennessy Gold Cup result:
1: Denman
2: What A Friend
3: Niche Market
4: Barbers Shop

2.33pm
There's been some anti-Irish feeling on the e-mail. No-one reckons our friends from the Emerald Isle have got a prayer, despite the Seagull squawking the name Snowy Morning in his Pricewise column this morning. The facts are that Ireland have won this with Arkle twice in the 60s and with Bright Highway 29 years ago. Be My Royal was good enough to past the post first in 2002, but was disqualified. But the playing field has changed since then. Newbury have for the first time decided to pay part of the travel costs and the raiding party amounted to five before Casey Jones pulled out.

For reference, I've included the prices as they were last night at 4pm. It makes interesting reading. For the record, I'm on What A Friend. I'm not sure he'll have the stomach for the fight, but he's clearly talented. I think there are holes in all of the runners, to be honest. I'd rather be a layer than a backer here, but my funds are running short now and I can't afford to lay a book.

Hennessy Gold Cup prices at 4pm yesterday:
Denman [5.1]
Barbers Shop [7.0]
What A Friend [9.6]
Killyglen [9.4]
Cappa Bleu [10.0]
Ballyfitz [19.5]
State Of Play [21.0]
Gone To Lunch [20.0]
Nenuphar Collonges [24.0]
Snowy Morning [22.0]

2.27pm
Newbury Racecourse sprinkles out the stardust and wheels out ... Cilla Black. Aw, don't you just love her? Cilla reveals to the irrepressible Tommo that she used to work at Aintree racecourse 'when she were a lass, waiting on nobs like you." Tommo had no idea how to react.

2.05pm
1: Mount Oscar
2: Pasco
3: Piraya
4: Pop

1.35pm result:
1: Big Buck's
2: Duc De Reignier
Are you allowed to school in public? Big Buck's saunters home to the applause of the impressed crowd. Ruby Walsh was motionless for most of the way, and save for a little scrape of Big Buck's' nose on the turf after the last flight, it was a facile win.

The price of the World Hurdle winner plummeted throughout the race. Big Buck's traded at [1.28] as they came to the last on the back straight and [1.18] as Logh Derg entered the finishing straight. That price was snapped up when Duc de Regniere was ridden along and from then on it [1.03] and down.

I can't understand why Pasco is such a short-priced favourite in the next. I know he is one of the best horses in the race, but his last three runs read fell, and he finished ninth and eighth. It's doesn't scream winner, really does it?

I've gone for Isn't That Lucky. Jonjo O'Neill's six-year-old finished second in the Jewson to Chapaturgeon. The Jewson form looks really strong, especially after Tranquil Sea, sixth in the Jewson, romped home in the Paddy Power a fortnight ago. Craig Thake, the trends man in the Raccing Post tips it up, too.

1.15pm
Unlike yesterday with Punchestowns, I know how good Big Buck's is. The obstacles are smaller, too. Where I would never steam into a novice chaser, I simply think Big Buck's is absolutely bomb-proof here. If you gave me the choice of investing £1,000 on either Punchestowns at 2-9, or Big Buck's at [1.47], I'd much rather the latter. I'm going, in, although probably not at that sort of level...

A few of you have been e-mailing in about the helicopter that landed during the first race. The vitriol on the Betfair forum must have a very low PH level now, too. Basically, according to the BHA man here, the pilot had instructions to land during two windows, but the owner ignored those instructions. Salmon Spray's thread on Betfair is surely not to be read by the feint-hearted. Avert your eyes, ladies.

1pm result:
1: Hey Big Spender
2: Fistral Beach
3: Pipo De Re
Tom Scudamore was going so well for much of that race on Hey Big Spender, but at one point he went out to [30.0]. Well done those in-running punters who got on at those big prices.

I'm sat next to the BBC man here. It turns out that Forest Green, who are away to Bath City this afternoon in the FA Cup have come acropper. An errant pheasant hit the windscreen of the team bus, and shattered the glass. The team filed out on to the roadside and waited to be picked up. Surely not the best preparation for a second-round tie.

12.55pm
Passato must rate a decent wager? He's joint-top rated on Racing Post Ratings and that Stratford third in September couldn't have worked out much better. Winner that day, War Of The World, was as short as 7-1 against Poquelin at Cheltenham in October and the second went on to beat Ellerslie George. There have been four other winners from that race. If you look at Passato's form on soft, it doesn't read well stats-wise. One place in four attempts, but that placed effort was against a 11-10 favourite on truly soft ground. A little investment at [34.0] looks fair.

12.45pm
I really struggle with Novice chase handicaps like the next race here. When Michel Le Bon won here on Thursday, owner Graham Roach did not highlight Fistral Beach's chances when asked about what he had in the pipeline over the next few weeks. He may have simply overlooked this horse in all the excitement of Michel Le Bon's victory, but if he really felt this had a damn good chance, just two days later, he might have said something, mightn't he?

Oliver writes in. "South Bank has some really good course form. He chased home Very Cool in February over course and distance. He's only 1lb off top-rated on RPRs. I've backed him at [7.2] a place."

12.25pm
1: Finian's Rainbow
2: Sereth
3: Sleepy Hollow
Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty continue their run of good form at this meeting with a winner in the first. The horse was trading at [1.01] before the last flight such was the impressive nature of that win. Supreme Novices'?

Harry Findlay, who sponsored the race, gave the prize for the best turned out from his own pocket. He simply whipped out a wedge of notes and paid on the £50.

Findlay was massively disappointed with his own performance on the Morning Line. "I know the camera adds 10lbs, but I looked pretty fat, didn't I?", he laughs. "I had to go to the mirror afterwards and check out my jawline." Findlay's best bet on the card is the heavily-backed Shillingstone in the 3.45pm. Robert Alner's seven-year old is trading at [2.56], having traded at a point higher.

12.20pm
Sereth has been heavily-backed and is now [2.56]. He looked a million dollars in the parade ring. I'm serious. I've never seen a horse look so well. He shimmered in the autumn sun. I tried to talk to trainer Barney Curley, but he seemed far more intent on smoking his cigarette than talking to the likes of me. For what it is worth he said: "He's in really good form".

12.05pm
To the Gerry Fielden Hurdle. Trainer Andy Turnell doesn't seem to be too sure about what is best for his charge, Michael Flips, who has been heavily backed.

"Last time out was disappointing," said Turnell of Michael Flips' third at Ascot . "I think he might have needed that run. I thought he would get further than two miles, and he didn't get home over two and a half. He'll probably need better ground than today as well."

Perhaps Turnell is not the most confident of trainers, which isn't surprising given that he hasn't sent out a winner at Newbury for 3671 days, or 32 runners.

Noon
"What's wrong with Ballyfitz?", writes Ian, sitting on his sofa somewhere in Scotland preparing himself for Aberdeen v Rangers. "John Francome was extremely strong on him on the Morning Line, and 'Twisty' reckons that the Paddy Power distance was too short for him. He'll stay and the ground will be perfect for him."

I've got no problem with Ballyfitz at all. I think he will run well. I'm just not sure I'm going to take advice from someone who wants to torture themselves by watching Scottish football. Come on Ian, it's a beautiful day outside. Get out there!

11.55am
Simon Holt, the Channel 4 commentator has now completely put me off State Of Play. If trainer Evan Williams tipped the balance earlier this morning with his comments about his horse's entries, Holt has shoved me off the side of the cliff.

"State Of Play was 33-1 earlier in the week, which I thought was a decent price," The Languid says. "I had another look at his Hennessy win. He's racing off 3lbs higher, but that day he raced off 11st 4lbs. Today he is off 10st and out of the handicap. It just shows how much better a race this one is to the one he won three years ago."

It is a sobering thought. Denman gives the weights a lop-sided look, but the likes of Joe Lively, War Of Attrition, even Grand National winner Mon Mome are all proven class. Back to the drawing board.

11.30am
Carrying on from the Morning line, trainer Evan Williams revealed that the Hennessy wasn't State Of Play's primary target, and that a brush hurdle earlier in the season had been. It was quite a bit of news, because up until then, I had very much considered the 2006 winner. There's a lot going for him. He's almost back to the mark off which he won this three years ago, and Steve Mason, the Racing Post's rating guru reckons his best form is a real benchmark the field have to rise to. He doesn't fit the general profile of winners of this race - improving second-season chasers - but that's why he's a big price. He's got a great record off a layoff, too.

11.20am
Good morning everybody and welcome to Hennessy Day from famous Newbury. I say famous, but having had a real good look into the history of Newbury this morning, there's not much to this sleepy Berkshire town. Two epic Civil War battles and a smattering of D List celebs. Those of a literary bent might be interested to know that Sebastian Faulks grew up here. Although Theo Walcott was born in Stanmore, he also spent his formative years in Newbury. AFC Newbury must have had a hell of a team.

Today though, is all about two stars of the jumping game. Denman and Big Buck's. Harry Findlay, legendary punter and owner of Denman, was on Channel 4's Morning Line. As a throw back to yesterday's blog, even the great punter finds it difficult to precisely price up jump racing. He couldn't pinpoint exactly what price Denman should be. He reckoned anything between 3-1 and 7-1. Er, thanks Harry. Findlay opined that if the price of his star chaser went out to anything above 5-1, he'd go in, all guns blazing. Denman currently trades at [4.5] for the feature handicap. Anyone want to take Harry on?

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