Newbury Betting - The Juddmonte Lockinge stakes: Why Paco is my Boy

Events / Wayne Bailey / 14 May 2009 / 2 Comments Free £25 Bet

Wayne Bailey looks ahead to Saturday's big race where Paco Boy will attempt to silence the doubters once and for all...

Despite winning the Bet365 mile at Sandown, there are still those that doubt Paco Boy's ability to perform at the top level, and by the sounds of it, Richard Hannon is getting sick and tired of hearing negative comments about his colt:

"Every time people talk about Paco, they keep moving the goalposts...First they said he didn't stay a mile, now they are saying he won't win a Group One over a mile. He doesn't get the credit he deserves."

But it seems that backers are finally getting the message and at the time of writing, they've pushed his price into [2.5] on the machine. Strangely, there's been a decent sum matched at [1.02] in the ante-post market, so we can assume that someone (or some bot) made a right clanger there!

Paco Boy is seen by many as a 7f specialist, and it's true to say he has excelled at that distance with five wins from five races. Before Sandown, he'd attempted the mile three times and failed on each occasion, but he's finally proven himself and I can see why the negativity is starting to bug Hannon. Race readers say he was starting to tire in the closing stages at Sandown, but according to Richard Hughes, he hadn't done much since returning from Dubai and any cobwebs should well and truly be shaken off this Saturday.

The real question is whether or not his price is too short at this stage. Personally, I don't think so. I mentioned before on these pages that I'm finding myself moving towards the shorter odds on Betfair lately, and I think that the old-style big priced value bets are becoming harder to find.

The market is definitely become more sophisticated and accurate so it doesn't scare me so much anymore to have a good wedge on a short-priced favourite. That said, it's not simply about following the crowd - one must still decide in their own mind what sort of chance the horse has and look for odds accordingly. If you think a horse has a 40% chance of winning, then look for odds above [2.5] and if you don't find them, don't bet. (If you want to quickly convert decimal odds to percentage chances, divide the price into one; e.g. 1 divided by 2.5 = 0.40)

Personally, I have him down as a [2.25] shot so I'll happily take anything above that on Saturday provided the going will suit. He has a fantastic turn of foot and if he gets into the right position where it matters, he'll be very hard to beat. Any thoughts on his chances are welcome below!

At [13.0], Twice Over looks interesting and I'll probably have a small saver in the place market. Having travelled well throughout, he hung badly to his right last-time-out at Newbury and ruined any chance of making the frame. There are suggestions that he needs further so this race could prove interesting. Another worry is the ground and if it's any way firm, it probably won't suit. But with a bit of luck, Cecil's four-year-old can put up a challenge and may just nab one of the places.

Aqlaam is second in the betting at [4.5] and has claims. He only had two races last season (winning both) but it's been almost a year since we saw him last at Ascot and he's unproven at this distance as yet. For me, he's best watched for now.

Advice: Back Paco Boy at [2.26] or higher. Back Twice Over to be placed at [2.5] or higher.

Comments (2)

Statistical Significance | 17 May 2009

Wayne

You say you had Paco Boy down as a 2.25 shot. That's fairly specific - how do you create your tissue?

Also, if you thought he was a 2.25 shot, why did you advise people back him at 2.26 or over? Do you not build in any margin for error? And what about commission payments?

I'm also intrigued by your comments:

"I mentioned before on these pages that I'm finding myself moving towards the shorter odds on Betfair lately, and I think that the old-style big priced value bets are becoming harder to find.

The market is definitely become more sophisticated and accurate so it doesn't scare me so much anymore to have a good wedge on a short-priced favourite."

I'd be interested to know what evidence you have that the market is becoming more sophisticated? And what is an "old-style value bet"?

Just interested in more of your thoughts in this area generally really.

Thanks

SS
Wayne Bailey | 18 May 2009

Hi SS, thanks for the comments - always welcome.
Regarding creating tissue prices: I try my best to create my own before the Racing Post or Sporting Life produce theirs as it's all too easy to be influenced. I watch as many previous races as practical, and then try to figure out in my head what sort of % chance the horse has of winning under today's conditions. I'll give each horse a % chance and then adjust that figure based on other outside factors (such as going etc). It always adds to 100% in total, so if I increase one horse's chance, I have to decrease the others.

In a way, it's a basic ratings system but the percentages are easy to convert to odds. I will build in a margin of error when creating the final % figure.

Next, I'll use private ratings and speed figures such as Timeform and Raceform just to be sure I'm not entirely off the mark! I'll adjust my figures if necessary if they highlight something I may have missed (especially on speed as I don't compile my own figures in that area).

Finally, I'll take a look at the RP and SL tissues just to get a feel for how others see it. This offers a final chance to check that I've not missed anything major. If I have a horse down as a short price but they have it at 20/1 I've usually overlooked something - or else found a great bet!

The reason I said 2.26 is because of the increments on betfair (2.25 is not one of them - it goes from 2.24 to 2.26). That final price included a built-in margin of error and commission. Unfortunately, the horse lost but Twice Over was placed at 2.53 so a small profit was made on the race.

Regarding the market...
To be honest, I've no empirical evidence to prove my point - it's just something I've noticed from betting most days. I'm open to correction and it's just an opinion really.

But if you look at the record on non-handicap favs (both codes) in recent years, they are performing marginally better recently with the strike rate for 2009 being exceptionally high so far:

2007: 39.56% of favs won
2008: 39.85% of favs won
2009: 43.14 of favs won

While the above is based on traditional SP, I think most people agree that Betfair is playing a huge part in shaping those markets nowadays and a lot of what happens on the machine is reflected on course so I'd expect similar results if using Betfair prices. Of course, the strike rates will go up and down over the years but I think the exchange prices are fairly accurate.

When I spoke of 'old style value bets' on the exchanges, I'm mainly thinking about the big price differences that were available in the early days of Betfair. If a horse was 10/1 with a bookie, it would often be 14.0 or even higher on Betfair. Again, my evidence is anecdotal, but I don't seem to see that happen as much anymore. I think both markets have moved closer together.

I'm not saying there is no value in outsiders anymore - but my own personal records show that I'm performing better (profit wise) at the shorter end of the market. Everyone is different however and I still know some people doing well on the bigger prices. Each to their own as they say and it's best to do what works for you.

Thanks again for the comments,

Wayne

Newbury Betting - The Juddmonte Lockinge stakes: Why Paco is my Boy

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