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Newbury Betting: Opposing Nicholls can be a successful tactic

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Graham Cunningham rounds-up the punting options this weekend

Time to swim against the tide as Nicholls bids for another Super Saturday

The pattern has become all too familiar.

Saturday dawns; the Morning Line crew home in on what Paul Nicholls flags up in his Racing Post column before settling down to an hour of laughing like hyenas; punters steam in to the Nicholls good things then laud him on the Betfair Forum if they win and abuse him like a bum if they don't.

But which script will be applicable this weekend? The relentless Nicholls saddles leading contenders for each of Newbury's flagship races, but I will be laying Five Dream in the Totesport Gold Trophy in the belief that he is just too skinny at [5.0].

Granted, this precocious juvenile has already landed two valuable handicaps against older horses. However, he didn't seem to have a lot in hand of Mohayer and Whispered Promises at Cheltenham last time and the combination of a penalty and a much deeper field here mean I will pay out willingly if Five Dream provides the Nicholls layers with another nightmare outcome.

Denman looks hard to oppose, but what about Voy?

Fate may still have something to say about the showdown between Kauto Star and Denman in this year's Gold Cup, but purists will be rooting for both horses to get to Cheltenham in top fighting shape on March 14.

For that to happen Denman must beat his Aon Chase rivals with authority - and he should do just that - but his presence puts a damper on the race as a betting medium.

By contrast, the presence of last year's Champion Chase hero Voy Por Ustedes in the Game Spirit Chase might just set up a value trade in the shape of the Nicholls-trained Master Minded.

Admittedly, this gelding has a fair bit to find to beat the current two mile champion at his best, but he does receive 6lb from Voy Por Ustedes and the way he jumped and travelled prior to sealing success in a Sandown handicap off a mark of 145 last month was highly encouraging.

In short, Master Minded looks one of the coming forces in a two mile division which has room at the top. He's worth a small win bet to trouble Voy Por Ustedes at Newbury. And if he does, then those who have prompted a gamble on him for the Champion Chase over the last 48 hours will be feeling very pleased with themselves.

Palomar can edge out Bajan in battle of the Flat recruits

Once upon a time they plied their trade in the very best handicaps on the Flat. Nowadays they are in deep against some of the toughest handicap hurdlers in Europe, but Blue Bajan and Palomar are making a decent fist of it.

Leading Flat jockey Richard Hughes is an intriguing booking for Blue Bajan, while young Fearghal Davis faces the biggest day of his career aboard the rejuvenated northern raider Palomar.

Betfair's head-to-head market is sure to link the pair in a match bet and Palomar looks the one to be on. Granted, he has to give 4lb to Blue Bajan, who was a notch above him on the level, but Blue Bajan's hesitant hurdling could hinder him in the heat of a battle like this one.

By contrast, Palomar jumps tidily nowadays. He's taken a huge hike up the weights since cruising home at Kempton over Christmas, but the promising Davis reduces his burden by a valuable 5lb and Palomar looks a good bet to come out on top in the match bet with Blue Bajan.

Fallon must revisit the bottom if he wants to return to the top

As demotions go, it has to go down as one of the swiftest on record.

No, he isn't going to be assistant to Sir Michael Stoute. And yes, for a man who was riding the Arc winner just four months ago the idea of being reduced to the role of mere work rider is a huge comedown.

All the same, in returning to Newmarket to link up with Stoute again Kieren Fallon has taken one small yet significant step towards resurrecting a career which has been under threat of implosion.

What seems clear in the light of the latest surprise turn in Fallon's incredibly turbulent career is that the gates of the mighty Coolmore operation are now firmly closed to him.

The doors to Stoute's yard have been reopened under certain conditions and, if Fallon truly wants to get back to the top as a rider or as a trainer in the longer term, he would be well advised to toe the line.

For too long, the former champion has relied on apologists who react to each indiscretion by assuring him that he isn't to blame when what he needs is for someone he respects to tell him he has behaved like a pratt.

And Stoute, who gave evidence for Fallon during his recent Old Bailey trial, could be the man to fulfil that role perfectly. Despite his famed resilience, Fallon must surely know he is running out of chances. And the chance Stoute has given him will not be offered again if he chooses not to respect it.

Cunningham's weekend wagers:
2.10 Newbury Saturday: Back Master Minded
3.20 Newbury Saturday: Lay Five Dream
3.20 Newbury Saturday: Back Palomar in the match with Blue Bajan